Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 5 (February 12, 2018)
This week: Endorsements, deadlines, controversy -- everything a political junkie could want out of the primaries. See something we missed, or have a tip? Drop us a line at editor@ballotpedia.org. We’re covering both sides, so if you haven’t already done so, please subscribe to The Heart of the Primaries: Democrats. And feel free to share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Feb. 27 (MD), Feb. 28 (NC)
Passed filing deadlines: 7
Upcoming elections: Feb. 27 (AZ-08 special election), March 6 (TX), March 20 (IL)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,176 Democrats, 846 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Republicans undoubtedly face a difficult midterm election this year, but the tax cut legislation may enable them to minimize their losses. It might even be enough for the GOP to retain control of Congress.”
- Scott Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics, Feb. 8, 2018
“Tax reform has contributed to a surge in GOP prospects: On Dec. 20, before it passed, the Democrats’ advantage was 13 points. But no one knows if tax reform will continue to deliver political dividends for Republicans. And given that the Democratic generic advantage has more than halved in the last six weeks, this measure will likely continue to oscillate.”
- Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 7, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House
- Democratic seats heading into November: 194
- Republican seats heading into November: 241
- Open seats: 50
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 34
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Bobby Bright switches parties for rematch against Martha Roby in AL-02
Bobby Bright (R), who represented Alabama's 2nd Congressional District for one term as a Democrat before losing to incumbent Rep. Martha Roby (R) in the 2010 general election, is seeking a rematch.
In Congress, Bright voted with then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) less than half the time and aired campaign ads describing himself as an "independent conservative."
A Roby spokesperson said she "looks forward to discussing her clear conservative Republican record on the campaign trail."
Also competing: Rich Hobson (R), the former campaign manager of Senate candidate Roy Moore, and state Rep. Barry Moore (R). The open primary for this safe Republican seat is June 5.
Cruz gets involved in southwestern races
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) endorsed Republican activist and fundraiser Kathaleen Wall (R) in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District Monday.
Cruz has endorsed in four of the six open congressional seats previously held by Republicans, including former staffers Jason Wright (R) and Chip Roy (R) in the 5th and 21st Districts, respectively, and state Rep. Van Taylor (R) in the 3rd District.
In Arizona’s 8th Congressional District special election, Cruz’s Jobs, Freedom, and Security super PAC spent $84,000 on media for former state Sen. Steve Montenegro (R).
Bachmann and Pawlenty not interested in Minnesota Senate race
Former U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) announced she would not run for the U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota currently held by appointee Tina Smith (D).
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) bowed out in January, leaving Republicans without a high-profile candidate. The only Republican in the race: state Sen. Karin Housley.
Pennsylvania GOP endorses Barletta
The Pennsylvania Republican State Committee voted Saturday to endorse Rep. Lou Barletta (R) in the party’s primary election for U.S. Senate. Barletta was the only one of the seven declared candidates who was nominated for the party’s endorsement.
At the Pennsylvania GOP's annual meeting, local committee members vote on whether to issue an official endorsement in any statewide primaries. The endorsement does not guarantee that a candidate will win the primary election; in the 2012 U.S. Senate race, party-endorsed businessman Steve Welch (R) was defeated by businessman Tom Smith (R) by 18 points.
The winner of the May 15 primary will challenge two-term Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D).
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Mike DeWine endorsed by Republican Party of Ohio
The Ohio GOP endorsed Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) over Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (R) for governor Friday. The two are seeking the Republican nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R).
The vote was 59-2, with one member abstaining.
Before the vote, Taylor asked the party not to make an endorsement. Taylor said she would not support DeWine in the general election if he received the nomination.
DeWine and Taylor were the only two candidates to file ahead of the Feb. 7 deadline. The May 8 primary will be open to all voters.
Campaign finance reports filed Jan. 31 show DeWine with $10.6 million in his warchest. That total includes a $1 million loan DeWine made to his campaign in July 2017, plus $4.7 million from the gubernatorial campaign account of Secretary of State Jon Husted (R), who withdrew from the race to join DeWine as his running mate.
Taylor has $3.5 million on hand, including a $3 million loan she had made to her campaign Jan. 26 and a $250,000 loan from her running mate, Nathan Estruth (R).
Ohio Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 6/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 11/16
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 6/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 24/33
- Seats held in state House: 66/99
Minnesota GOP holds precinct caucuses as Pawlenty mulls run
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Minnesota Republicans convened Tuesday to cast nonbinding preference votes for the party's gubernatorial nominee. Hennepin County Commissioner and 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson (R) finished first with 45.4 percent. Former state party chairman Keith Downey (R) finished second at 14.6 percent. Although the results do not allow Johnson to bypass the Aug. 14 primary, the Star Tribune reports that strong showings in the caucuses means candidates “likely will get a boost in lining up support from party activists and donors.”
Nine candidates are seeking the nomination, though more can jump in before June 5 filing deadline. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who announced Tuesday that he would step down as CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable next month, may make his intentions about the race known soon.
Minnesota Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 0/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 3/8
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 1/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/67
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 76/134
Pennsylvania GOP endorses Wagner; Turzai drops out
On Saturday, the Pennsylvania Republican State Committee voted to endorse state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) for governor over businessman Paul Mango (R) ahead of the May 15 primary. State House Speaker Mike Turzai (R) dropped out of the race prior to the vote, while attorney Laura Ellsworth (R) declined to participate in the endorsement process. At the Pennsylvania GOP's annual meeting, local committee members vote on whether to issue an official endorsement in any statewide primaries. Candidates may opt out of the endorsement process, but no gubernatorial candidate has gone on to lose the primary after winning the party's endorsement in 40 years.
Three candidates are seeking the nomination, though more could join the race up until the March 6 filing deadline. The May 15 primary is open to registered Republicans.
Pennsylvania Republicans party profile
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S House of Representatives: 12/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/50
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 120/203
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 7.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 50 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 7.1 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 9.7 percent.
Texas Gov. Abbott backs third primary challenger of state House incumbent
Add Lyle Larson to the list of state representatives on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s don’t-come-back list. Abbott is backing Hollywood Park Mayor Chris Fails in the March 6 House District 122 primary.
Larson is the third ally of House Speaker Joe Straus (R) who Abbott is opposing in the Republican primaries. Larson and the other two incumbents Abbott opposes -- Sarah Davis and Wayne Faircloth -- criticized the governor on ethics-related matters in 2017.
Other Abbott endorsements in competitive Republican primaries include Straus ally Travis Clardy and Texas Freedom Caucus member Mike Lang. The 41 competitive state House primaries generally pit Straus-aligned candidates against anti-Straus candidates, with the latter often affiliated with either the Texas Freedom Caucus or the group Empower Texans.
The faction that wins more primaries will have greater influence over who becomes the next House Speaker in 2019. Incumbent Speaker Straus is retiring.
2019 speaker’s race will define Ohio House Republican primaries
Finance Committee Chairman Ryan Smith and former Speaker Larry Householder are running for the Ohio House speakership in 2019. Each is backing their own set of candidates in the Republican primaries, where at least 12 of the 66 Republican-controlled seats will be open due to term-limits.
Current House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger and the Ohio House Republican Campaign Committee (OHROC) back Smith. According to 3rd Rail Politics, Smith represents the moderate wing of the Ohio Republican Party, which includes Gov. John Kasich and former House Speaker Jo Ann Davidson.
Householder ran a slate of candidates in the 2001 primaries and defeated the term-limited Davidson’s preferred successor for the Speaker’s post -- which went to Householder, instead. Seeking a replay of his previous success, Householder has aligned himself with the Donald Trump wing of the Ohio GOP and has the support of pro-Trump donor Tony George.
The primaries are May 8.
Local politics
Republican war in Texas trickles down to county chair contest
David Hillburn is challenging incumbent Paul Rieger to be the next chairman of the Republican Party in Brazos County, Texas. Located between Austin and Houston, the Brazos County contest symbolizes the national GOP split over the party’s direction.
Hillburn has criticized what he says is the party’s tendency to drown out diverse viewpoints in favor of ideological purity. Hillburn says this could result in an exodus of moderates from the party. His campaign’s slogan is “All Working Together.”
Rieger worries about those who in the party who want to “move left” and might compromise its conservative platform. He wants the state party to move away from an open primary system because it could allow non-Republicans to influence the party’s future.
U.S. Rep. Bill Flores and several state legislators support Hillburn, while various party activists, including former Texas GOP Chairwoman Cathie Adams, support Rieger.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
National Republican Redistricting Trust
"We are definitely going to back lawsuits and push in any way possible to have an even playing field in redistricting, especially in states that have always been drawn by Democrats. We have failed to go on offense in the past in states like Illinois and Maryland where we can wage legal battles." -Guy Harrison, senior adviser to the National Republican Redistricting Trust
According to the Washington Examiner, the National Republican Redistricting Trust (NRRT) was formed as a counterweight to the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC). Like the NDRC, the NRRT aims to position its party favorably for the post-2020 round of redistricting. Unlike the NDRC, it isn't planning to back individual candidates for the state-level offices that control redistricting.
NRRT senior adviser and former National Republican Congressional Committee executive director Guy Harrison told Politico that the national party's campaign committees have that job covered. "Our job is redistricting," Harrison said. "While they're [the party's campaign committees are] focusing on the politics, we're moving on the legal and data aspects. When we get to drawing maps [after the 2020 census]... they will have a lot of building blocks and tools available to them."
The group is helping fund amicus briefs opposing court challenges to district maps in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (R), who joined the NRTT briefs, worried about the precedent the challenges could set. "As Secretary of State, it is my job to help ensure Missouri has smooth elections," Ashcroft said. "The elections administration process is both an important and complicated one, and it is simply too close to candidate filing and elections in 2018 to change district lines, prepare new district maps and identify and notify voters of any changes."
What we're reading
- “Is Joe Arpaio the Next Roy Moore?” (Politico)
- “Things are looking up for the Republican quest to hold the House in 2018” (Washington Examiner)
- “Dems Want to Win in 2018. They Shouldn’t.” (Politico)
- “Taking back the House will be harder than Democrats think” (The Washington Post)
