Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 6 (February 19, 2018)
This week: candidates get key endorsements, and the ads opposing other candidates start flying. The Republican primaries are heating up. Want even more primary news? We’re covering the Democratic races, too (click here to subscribe). Have a tip or see something we missed? Drop us a line at editor@ballotpedia.org. And feel free to share this newsletter with your colleagues!
Upcoming filing deadlines: Feb. 27 (MD), Feb. 28 (NC)
Passed filing deadlines: 7
Upcoming elections: Feb. 27 (AZ-08 special election), March 6 (TX), March 20 (IL)
Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,201 Democrats, 872 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Midterms can be brutal enough for a president’s party, but a bad deal on DACA (one that not only fails to achieve center-right immigration priorities but actually undermines them) would only make a cruel November even more likely for the GOP.”
- Fred Bauer, National Review, Feb. 15, 2018
“A second pitfall is to do nothing. It is important to pass a good bill now that Democrats feel great pressure to act. If they really are as concerned about Dreamers as they claim, they will take the deal the Grassley bill offers, particularly because it doesn’t violate any of their principles.”
- Editorial Board, Washington Examiner, Feb. 15, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House
- Democratic seats heading into November: 194
- Republican seats heading into November: 241
- Open seats: 50
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 34
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
*Includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats
Trump endorses Barletta in Pennsylvania Senate race
President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Penn.) in the Pennsylvania Senate Republican primary. The eventual nominee will face incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D), one of 10 Senate Democrats running for reelection in a state Trump won in 2016.
Other GOP contenders include businessman Paul Addis (R), who has outraised Barletta $1.3 million to $1.1 million, and state Rep. Jim Christiana (R).
Christiana said Barletta’s reported associations with anti-Semitic and white nationalist individuals would make him a "liability” in the general election.
Tonette Walker endorses Vukmir in Wisconsin Senate race
Wisconsin first lady Tonette Walker (R) endorsed state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R) in the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin. Her son, Alex Walker, is a Vukmir campaign staffer. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) campaign representative said he will remain neutral in the Republican primary.
The Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) have endorsed Kevin Nicholson in the primary.
Romney enters Senate race in Utah
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) entered the U.S. Senate race in Utah Friday.
In a video announcement that some outlets called critical of President Donald Trump, Romney said, “Utah welcomes legal immigrants from around the world. Washington sends immigrants a message of exclusion. And on Utah's Capitol Hill, people treat one another with respect.”
Romney has a 69 percent approval rating in Utah, but some state leaders gave him a cool reception. State party chair Rob Anderson said, "I think he's keeping out candidates that I think would be a better fit for Utah, because, let's face it, Mitt Romney doesn't live here, his kids weren't born here, he doesn't shop here."
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Rauner, Ives score endorsements in Illinois
The Chicago Tribune endorsed Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) over challenger state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) Friday, noting Rauner had been the first governor to push back against House Speaker Michael Madigan (D).
The Tribune said, "Ives’ cumulative rhetoric on social issues — describing gay relationships as 'disordered' and unleashing an attack ad that ridiculed people who are different from her — has been mocking, mean-spirited and often inaccurate. There is a way to be a compassionate conservative. And there is her way."
The pro-life Susan B. Anthony List endorsed Ives Friday. The group criticized Rauner's decision to sign a bill mandating that certain state-administered insurance plans cover abortion.
"Governor Rauner’s outrageous betrayal of his pro-life constituents will have political consequences," the group said.
The primary is March 20 and will be open to all registered voters.
Illinois Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 3/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 7/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 0/2
- Seats held in U.S. House of Representatives: 7/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 2/6
- Seats held in state Senate: 22/59
- Seats held in state House of Representatives: 51/118
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 7.3 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 50 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 7.1 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 9.7 percent.
Texas Freedom Caucus may gain from primary challengers
The Texas Freedom Caucus may see its ranks swell by at least nine if GOP House primary challengers can run the electoral table.
The Texas Tribune identified the nine members who said they might join the caucus if invited.
- Mayes Middleton (primary challenger of Wayne Faircloth in District 23)
- Chris Fails (primary challenge of Lyle Larson in District 122)
- Bo French (primary challenge of Charlie Geren in District 99)
- Armin Mizani (primary challenge of Giovanni Capriglione in District 98)
- Jill Wolfskill (Candidate in District 13)
- Stuart Spitzer (Candidate in District 4)
- Thomas McNutt (Candidate in District 8)
- Jared Patterson (Candidate in District 106)
- Steve Toth (Candidate in District 15)
Led by state Rep. Matt Schaefer (pictured right), the 12 member Texas Freedom Caucus is similar in its policy goals to the congressional Freedom Caucus.
In Texas, Freedom Caucus members are spearheading the opposition to outgoing House Speaker Joe Straus and his allies in the primaries. Their goal is installing House leaders who favor Freedom Caucus positions on issues like education financing and property taxes.
Ballotpedia has identified at least one pro- or anti-Straus candidate in 36 of the 41 Republican state House primaries.
Twenty of the contested seats feature a pro-Straus incumbent. Four have an anti-Straus incumbent facing a challenger, and 15 are open seats. Factional affiliation is unclear in the two other primaries.
Texas primaries to watch
There are two weeks until the March 6 Texas primaries. Here are two races you should watch:
Senate District 8
This Dallas-area district vacated by state Sen. Van Taylor (R) features a showdown between two well-funded challengers with family members already serving in state government. Angela Paxton, the wife of Attorney General Ken Paxton, is facing Phillip Huffines, the twin brother of state Sen. Don Huffines.
According to KERA News, the race is the most expensive state legislative contest in Texas. Huffines, a wealthy businessman, loaned his campaign millions of dollars. Paxton’s husband’s campaign committee guaranteed a $2 million loan to her campaign.
This race has gotten nasty in recent weeks with both candidates releasing ads criticizing the other. Huffines says Paxton and her husband have enriched themselves during his time in public office, while Paxton says Huffines has donated to Democrats in the past.
The critical ads aside, the Dallas Morning News said the candidates agree on most policies: “Both are staunch social and fiscal conservatives who are spending big bucks to woo essentially the same far-right Republican primary voters in the conservative state Senate District 8."
House District 134
State Rep. Sarah Davis, an ally of House Speaker Joe Straus whom local observers have tagged as one of the least conservative House Republicans, is facing the wrath of Gov. Greg Abbott in the primary for her Houston-based seat.
Abbott and anti-Straus groups such as Empower Texans back Davis’ challenger, Susanna Dokupil. Abbott has released four negative campaign ads emphasizing Davis’ support for some abortion procedures and claiming she is aligned with Democrats.
The Davis-Abbott feud stems from her criticism of Abbott for not including ethics legislation on the 2017 special session agenda.
Davis says her district will likely vote for a Democrat in November if Dokupil wins the primary. Hillary Clinton carried the district by 15.5 percentage points over Donald Trump in 2016.
New York primaries likely on a Thursday due to conflict with Jewish New Year and 9/11
The New York State Legislature approved a bill moving the 2018 primaries for state offices from Sept. 11 to Sept. 13. September 11 is both the final day of Rosh Hashanah and Patriot Day, which recognizes the anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has not objected to the bill. The primaries for federal offices are June 26.
Massachusetts earlier moved its primary from Sept. 18 to Sept. 4 due to conflict with Yom Kippur.
Power players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Ted Cruz
"With all these vacancies, I think it’s very important to Texas that [they] be filled by strong, principled conservatives who we can trust, who we can trust to do what they say and who we can trust to lead — because I fully expect the members elected from Texas to be leaders in Congress for a long, long time," -Sen. Ted Cruz (R)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has turned his eyes to the Texas GOP House primaries, supporting candidates in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 21st districts. Two of the candidates he endorsed are his former staffers: Jason Wright in District 5 and Chip Roy in District 21.
Cruz has made endorsements outside his home state as well. In the special election for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, Cruz backed former state Sen. Steve Montenegro. He endorsed Cynthia Dunbar, a national committeewoman for the Republican Party of Virginia, in Virginia’s 6th Congressional District. In the Wisconsin Senate race, he supported Kevin Nicholson.
Media observers are looking to see whether a Cruz endorsement matters.
The Texas Tribune wrote, “The primaries provide the first real opportunity to gauge Cruz's electoral clout in Texas since 2016, a year best remembered for his failed presidential campaign and tumultuous relationship with then-candidate Donald Trump.”
“Since then,” the Tribune said, “Cruz has worked hard to cultivate the image of a team player in Trump's Washington, aligning with his former bitter rival on a host of issues.”
What we're reading
- “Joe Manchin’s Growing Peril” (National Journal)
- “Midterm Limits: Why Democrats Shouldn’t Get Too Confident About November” (Politico)
- “The Democrats' biggest liability wears 4-inch heels” (Washington Examiner)
- “Inside the Two Years that Shook Facebook—And the World” (Wired)
