Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Issue 9 (March 12, 2018)
This week: Cochran retires, an “unprecedented” challenge in Illinois, and Texas primary takeaways. Want more primary coverage? Click here to follow developments on the Democratic side. Have a tip or see something we missed? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org. And please share this newsletter with your colleagues!
- Upcoming filing deadlines: March 12 (Montana), March 13 (New Mexico), March 15 (Maine, Utah), March 16 (Iowa, Nevada)
- Passed filing deadlines: 16
- Upcoming elections: March 20 (Illinois)
- Declared U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates: 1,250 Democrats, 942 Republicans
Republican pundits on the news
Where do Republican and conservative pundits disagree? Each week in Heart of the Primaries, we bring you excerpts that highlight differing views.
“Yes, Republican turnout has remained at similar levels starting in 2010. And Democratic turnout is sharply up from the 2006 to 2014 primaries. But just about as many Texans were voting in Democratic primaries in 2002 and 1994 as did in 2016, even though Texas’ population has increased from 18.4 million in 1994 and 21.8 million in 2002 to 27.4 million in 2018.
Texas may be turning bluer, as it did, marginally, in the 2016 election. But it’s not yet turning blue.” - Michael Barone, Washington Examiner, March 7, 2018
“The early indications from Texas suggest that the Democratic primary voters are more likely to prefer progressive Democrats and reject the establishment. If that trend continues nationwide, reluctant Trump supporters may conclude it’s worth the effort to show up and vote once again for the lesser of two evils.
Obviously, there’s a long way to go until votes are cast in November. In fact, there’s a long way to go before we even know who the Democrats will nominate in many key races. But it’s quite likely that the reluctant Trump supporters could determine control of Congress for the next two years.” - Scott Rasmussen, March 8, 2018
U.S. Congress
U.S. House:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 193
- Republican seats heading into November: 238
- Open seats: 51
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 16
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 35
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 23
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 12
U.S. Senate:
- Democratic seats heading into November: 49*
- Republican seats heading into November: 51
- Open seats: 3
- Open seats currently held by a Democrat: 0
- Open seats currently held by a Republican: 3
- Seats with a Republican incumbent carried by Clinton: 1
- Seats with a Democratic incumbent carried by Trump: 10
Cochran out in Mississippi, Bryant to appoint successor
Sen. Thad Cochran (R) (pictured left), who has represented Mississippi since 1978, is resigning from office April 1. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will appoint his successor.
Bryant’s possible choices for the seat are Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R), Agriculture and Commerce Secretary Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R), and state Sen. Michael Watson (R).
Not on the shortlist are Bryant himself, and tea party favorite state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R). McDaniel previously announced that he was challenging Sen. Roger Wicker (R) in the Republican primary for Cochran’s seat, which is up for regular election this year, but also didn’t rule out the possibility of running for Cochran’s seat instead. President Donald Trump (R) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) both want to see Bryant choose a more favorable general election candidate, and avoid a repeat of December’s Alabama Senate special election.
A tale of three ads in Indiana Senate race
In their ad buys this month, the GOP frontrunners for Indiana’s U.S. Senate primary showed how they hope to win voters’ support.
Rep. Todd Rokita (R) focused on ideology, calling himself “pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-Trump” in his ad. The ad’s narrator criticized “liberal elites” who “disrespect our flag and the sacrifices of our soldiers. They riot in our streets and attack our police. Welfare dependency, open borders, amnesty: it must stop.”
Rep. Luke Messer’s (R) ad featured his daughters, and concentrated on family values. “He’s a conservative. A big advocate for President Trump’s agenda,” the girls say. “He lives his values every single day: Family first. Country always. Faith forever. That’s why he’s a great dad and why he’ll be a great senator, too.”
Businessman Mike Braun (R) emphasized the economy. “It used to be easy to buy made in America. Not anymore. Career politicians sent those companies elsewhere,” Braun said. “Congressmen Rokita and Messer voted to fast-track Obama’s trade deal. Indiana lost good manufacturing jobs, but politicians kept theirs.”
Governors
| Governors: key information | |
|---|---|
| Open seats | 17 |
| Open seats held by a Democrat | 4 |
| Open seats held by a Republican | 13 |
| States with a Republican incumbent that were carried by Clinton | 8 |
| States with a Democratic incumbent that were carried by Trump | 1 |
Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidates split on education and property taxes
At their March 5 gubernatorial debate, state Sen. Scott Wagner (R) and businessman Paul Mango (R) backed a bill that would eliminate the portion of property taxes that fund education and increase the state's income and sales tax rates. Attorney Laura Ellsworth (R) opposed the bill and called for both a reduction in the state's property tax rates and a freeze in property tax rates for senior citizens.
On education, Ellsworth said a state policy providing funding for alternatives to public education had damaged the quality of the state's public schools. Wagner and Mango said they opposed any increases in funding for public education.
The May 15 primary is open to all voters.
Pennsylvania Republicans party profile:
- Presidential elections carried since 1980: 4/10
- Gubernatorial elections won since 1978: 5/10
- Seats held in U.S. Senate: 1/2
- Seats held in U.S. House: 12/18
- Statewide partisan elected offices held: 0/5
- Seats held in state Senate: 34/50
- Seats held in state House: 119/203
Legislatures
Republicans control 32 state legislatures heading into the November 2018 midterms. Over the eight years of the Obama presidency, Republicans picked up 948 seats in state legislatures. This chart tracks the number of candidates running, incumbents retiring, primary challenges to incumbents, and total primaries for Republicans in 2018 compared to the same point in the 2016 elections based on the states where filing deadlines have passed.
Takeaways: In Alabama*, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Texas, and West Virginia, where candidate lists are now final, the number of Republican candidates running has increased 25.8 percent. The number of incumbents retiring has increased 77.6 percent. The number of Republican incumbents facing challenges has increased 38.9 percent and the number of Republican primaries has increased 36.7 percent.
*Alabama did not hold state legislative elections in 2016
Who came out on top in the Texas primaries
In the widely watched battle between pro- and anti-Straus candidates in the March 6 GOP legislative primaries, 18 pro-Straus incumbents won re-election, including Straus allies Sarah Davis and Lyle Larson, both of whom faced Gov. Greg Abbott-endorsed challengers.
Two pro-Straus House incumbents and one pro-Straus Senate incumbent lost.
One pro-Straus state representative is heading to a runoff. Five other House runoffs feature pro- and anti-Straus matchups.
Here’s what the leaders of the pro- and anti-Straus factions had to say after the results came in:
Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick (pictured left): "The liberal Joe Straus agenda is over. It's over. It was clear last night."
House Speaker Joe Straus (pictured right):
"Voters showed a clear preference for principled Republicans who are serious about solving the state's challenges."
Here’s what outside observers said:
Ross Ramsey, executive editor of the Texas Tribune: ”Various factions declared victory after the votes were counted; that’s what factions do. But the results were evidence of good defense more than good offense,” Ramsey said. “ Most of the incumbents under fire in this year’s primaries survived to the next round.”
Dr. Mark Jones, Rice University:
"Since the establishment is on the defensive, any loss is significant for them.They're a group that's shrinking, and they didn't add any House seats,” Jones said. “The movement conservatives view this not as a single battle but as a war with a long time horizon. They never expect to flip 12 or 15 seats in any given cycle.” “Instead,” Jones said, “a net pickup of a few seats means an already weakened establishment is weaker in 2019.” “Over time,” Jones added, “the movement conservative wing [will be] predominant in the House, just like it is now in the Senate."
Durkin faces “unprecedented” challenge from Straub
Illinois House Minority Leader Jim Durkin (R) faces a primary challenge from Burr Ridge Mayor Mickey Straub in a race Illinois political observer Rich Miller calls an “unprecedented attempt to take out a Republican legislative leader.” Miller says Durkin’s hiring of former Rauner Chief of Staff Mike Zolnierowicz is a sign Durkin takes the Straub challenge seriously.
Straub has the backing of conservative radio host Dan Proft, whose organization Liberty Principles has produced a number of campaign ads attacking Durkin for his purported similarities to House Speaker Mike Madigan (D), including the Madigurkin ad (pictured right).
Proft is a former ally of Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). Proft switched allegiances to Rauner’s primary rival, state Rep. Jeanne Ives, after Rauner signed a bill expanding abortion access in 2017. Proft and Liberty Principles are connected to the Illinois Public Policy Institute and wealthy GOP donor Richard Uihlein, who is helping bankroll Ives’ campaign against Rauner.
Power Players
A weekly feature on an influencer shaping the direction of the party.
Greg Abbott
"I don't think anyone can say that we didn't send a message. What candidate wants to spend half a million dollars in a primary where they are the incumbent?" -An Abbott campaign official on Tuesday's primary results
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott was a big player in the March 6th GOP primaries as he sought to unseat three incumbent legislators who opposed his policies.
Republican state Reps. Sarah Davis, Wayne Faircloth, and Lyle Larson have clashed with Abbott over ethics legislation, including a Larson-backed proposal to make high-dollar donors ineligible for gubernatorial appointments.
The three are also allies of retiring House Speaker Joe Straus (R), who battled Abbott over property tax legislation, a measure to regulate bathroom usage, and an education reform bill in the 2017 special legislative session.
"If the three House primary challengers Gov. Greg Abbott has endorsed lose their races on March 6, it won't be for a lack of trying on the governor's part," The Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek said.
Abbott went 1-2 on election night, with Davis and Larson winning their primaries and Faircloth losing to challenger Mayes Middleton, 57-42.
Abbott called for party unity in the primary aftermath, saying, "Now that we turn the corner and head toward November, it's important that Republicans come together. Sure we may have differences in our family. But we are one family in the Republican Party."
What we’re reading
- “It was a bad election night for Gov. Greg Abbott and Texas' best-funded Tea Party group” (The Texas Tribune)
- "The Takeaway: Democrats' Favorability Falls” (RealClearPolitics)
- “In 2018, it's still good to be a political outsider” (Washington Examiner)
- “Media step back from Democrat 'blue wave' predictions” (Washington Examiner)
