Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Special Edition 1 (March 7, 2018)
Texas voters kicked off primary season. One state down, 49 to go (although, with a runoff ahead of us, Texas isn’t exactly done yet!). In any district where a candidate did not receive 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will take place between the top two vote getters on May 22. Here’s a quick rundown on the exciting primary events last night.
Congress
Kathaleen Wall misses CD-02 runoff after spending nearly $6 million on race
Republican activist Kathaleen Wall appears to have missed the runoff for Texas’ 2nd Congressional District, despite having put nearly $6 million of her own money into the race.
The two candidates positioned to advance — state Rep. Kevin Roberts and former Navy SEAL Daniel Crenshaw — raised about $660,000 and $170,000, respectively. The margin between Crenshaw and Wall is less than 200 votes, making a recount possible.
In addition to her fundraising, Wall was backed by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, among many other political figures and organizations.
Lance Gooden and Bunni Pounds advance to runoff in CD-05
State Rep. Lance Gooden (R) and political consultant Bunni Pounds (R) will advance to a May 22 runoff in the primary for Texas’ 5th congressional district, located southeast of Dallas. Gooden finished with 30 percent of the vote to Pounds’ 22 percent.
Pounds has the support of retiring incumbent Jeb Hensarling (R), for whom she had previously worked as campaign manager. She also led in fundraising.
Gooden has the support of local officials in the district, including 12 mayors, two sheriffs, and a district attorney.
Jake Ellzey and Ron Wright advance to runoff in CD-06
Former George W. Bush staffer Jake Ellzey (R) and former Tarrant County tax assessor Ron Wright (R) were the top two finishers in a 12-candidate Republican primary to represent Texas’ 6th congressional district, located south of Dallas. Wright received 45 percent of the vote to Ellzey’s 22 percent.
The seat was left open following Rep. Joe Barton’s (R) announcement that he would not seek re-election in 2018 after allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced against him. Barton had held the seat since the 1984 election.
Ellzey, who was endorsed by former Gov. Rick Perry (R), filed for the seat before Barton had announced his retirement, announcing a challenge to Barton based on immigration policy and the length of Barton’s tenure.
Wright, who has been endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Texas Right to Life, and Empower Texans, had previously served as a staffer in Rep. Barton’s office, including as his chief of staff between 2009 and 2011.
Matt McCall sneaks into a runoff with Chip Roy in CD-21
Three-time District 21 candidate Matt McCall will face Ted Cruz’s former chief of staff, Chip Roy, in a runoff election on May 22. Roy, who led the field in endorsements and fundraising, took the plurality with 27 percent of the vote. McCall edged out past ex-CIA officer William Negley by 1,000 votes to land in second place with 17 percent of the vote.
Heading into the night, McCall, a largely self-funded businessman with no major endorsements, was not expected to compete with Negley or other top candidates such as state Rep. Jason Isaac or former Bexar County GOP Chairman Robert Stovall. He had ran unsuccessfully against retiring incumbent Lamar Smith in 2016 and 2014, which he said made it likely voters would recognize his name over the other 17 candidates running for the seat.
Negley was backed by San Antonio billionaire Red McCombs and had numerous super PACs spending on his behalf. In the final days of the campaign, the Club for Growth, which backs Chip Roy, ran an ad claiming that Negley had supported an independent candidate over Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential campaign.
The winner of the McCall vs. Roy matchup will face the winner of a runoff in the Democratic primary between Joseph Kopser and Mary Wilson. Although the seat has leaned Republican in the past, ratings agencies have recently moved it to the left and raised the possibility of a Democrat winning in November.
Bech Bruun and Michael Cloud in a runoff for District 27
The race to succeed Blake Farenthold, who announced his retirement after sexual misconduct allegations were levied against him in late 2017, went as expected. The top two candidates heading into the night--Bech Bruun and Michael Cloud--will face off in a runoff on May 22.
The former chairman of the Texas Water Development Board, Bruun leads Cloud in endorsements (he was backed by former Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Rep. Roger Williams) and fundraising (he outspent Cloud by more than a 3-1 margin).
Cloud previously served as chairman of the Victoria County Republican Party and announced his campaign months before the allegations against Farenthold arose, giving him a strong ground game. He was backed by former District 27 Congressman Ron Paul.
Endorsement roundup
Ballotpedia tracked endorsements by key influencers five congressional Republican primaries. Click here to see who prominent political figures like Ted Cruz and Greg Abbott backed in the races and where organizations like Texas Right to Life, the Club for Growth, and Empower Texans lined up.
State executives
Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller wins Republican nomination for second term
Sitting Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller (R) defeated challengers Trey Blocker (R) and Jim Hogan (R) in Tuesday’s primary. Miller received 56 percent of the vote to Hogan’s 23 percent and Blocker’s 21 percent, and will advance to the general election against Kim Olson (D).
While Blocker had received the support of Texas newspapers such as the Houston Chronicle and Dallas Morning News, Miller was endorsed by a range of national figures including President Trump.
Miller's victory "was a sign of the Republican Party’s shift to the right and increasing preference for candidates who speak their minds and snub political correctness", according to an article in the Texas Tribune citing University of Houston professor Brandon Rottinghaus. Rottinghaus said that Blocker "was seen as the establishment candidate in the race for focusing on fiscal responsibility and good governance rather than trying to match Miller’s social media bluster."
State legislature
Most incumbents survive, seven races head to runoffs
The anti-Straus faction of the Republican Party in the Texas Legislature defeated three pro-Straus incumbents in yesterday's primaries. Fewer Republican incumbents lost than in 2016 (six losses) and 2014 (nine losses). Thirteen Republican incumbents retired in 2018, which was similar to the 12 retirements in 2016 and the 13 retirements in 2014.
Each side won three races without sitting incumbents, however, meaning that the seven runoff elections now set for May 22 will likely decide which faction in the legislature can claim an outright victory this primary season. Five of the seven runoffs will feature a clear pro-Straus vs. anti-Straus matchup.
Anti-Straus challengers unseated pro-Straus incumbents state Sen. Craig Estes and state Reps. Wayne Faircloth and Jason Villalba. Pro-Straus state Rep. Scott Cosper is in a runoff. Key wins for the pro-Straus faction included fending off anti-Straus challengers in Senate District 31 and House Districts 2, 99, 122, and 134.
What’s ahead
Now that we have Texas under our belts, our primary focus turns to Illinois, which hold its primaries on March 20. Here’s a sneak preview of what is to come.
Republican factions battle in gubernatorial battle in traditionally blue state
The election pits sitting Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) against challenger state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R). Rauner was first elected in 2014, defeating sitting Gov. Pat Quinn (D) to become the first Republican elected to the state's top office since George Ryan in 1998.
In her candidacy announcement, Ives argued that Illinoisans “were promised a conservative reform governor. Instead we got an Ivy League gender studies professor. Benedict Rauner betrayed us at every turn."
Rauner has argued that he would have a better chance of winning the general election: "I will win the general election. I will win it, and if we don't win it, nothing else matters."
Rauner’s shadow over the state capitol: Illinois’ state legislative primaries
A factional conflict between Republican legislators over support for Rauner is playing out in the state legislative primaries.
Fifteen Republican state representatives opposed Rauner in a fight over the state budget and a tax increase last year. The group initially voted for a budget deal and tax increase put forward by House Democrats, opposing Rauner.
Also factoring into the primaries are candidates supported by conservative radio host Dan Proft, who used to be a Rauner ally before endorsing Ives.
Proft is supporting candidates in seats held by Republicans who initially opposed Rauner on the state budget and in a primary challenge of state House Minority Leader Jim Durkin (R), who enlisted a Rauner-connected operative for his campaign team.
