Heart of the Primaries, Republicans-Special Edition 2 (March 21, 2018)
It was a good night for Republican incumbents in Illinois. But Gov. Bruce Rauner’s two point win over former state Rep. Jeanne Ives sets up a tough general election campaign against Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker.
Six out of seven state House Republican fended off their challengers. But 13 retired ahead of the primaries. Most of them supported Democratic efforts to raise taxes in 2017 over Rauner’s objections. Their absence could make the House GOP Caucus more fiscally conservative.
Governor's race
Bruce Rauner defeats primary challenge
Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) won the primary over state Rep. Jeanne Ives (R) 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent.
Rauner exceeded his performance in the 2014 gubernatorial primary, in which he received 328,934 votes (40.1 percent). According to unofficial results with 98 percent of precincts reporting, Rauner received 351,086 votes in Tuesday's primary.
Ives launched her challenge to Rauner in October after he signed HB 40, a bill requiring state employee health insurance plans and state-administered Medicaid plans cover abortion.
On the campaign trail, Ives said Rauner had let down his base, citing HB 40 and the TRUST Act, a bill Rauner signed preventing state and local law enforcement from detaining an individual based solely on whether they have legal permission to reside in the country. The Chicago Republican Party, the Susan B. Anthony List, and National Review endorsed Ives.
Rauner said he had the best chance of winning in November. The Cook County Republican Party, DuPage County Board Chairman Dan Cronin (R), and Chicago-area newspapers including the Tribune, Sun-Times, and Daily Herald endorsed Rauner.
Rauner advances to the Nov. 6 general election, where he will face businessman J.B. Pritzker (D). The race is on track to be the most expensive gubernatorial election in U.S. history.
State legislatures
One incumbent defeated in Republican legislative primaries
Republican legislative seats were also on Tuesday’s ballot, where seven incumbents faced primary challenges. There were also primaries in 13 state House districts and two state Senate districts with retiring incumbents.
The only incumbent Republican to lose Tuesday was House District 109 Rep. David Reis (R). Challenger Darren Bailey (R) defeated Reis 56.8 percent to 43.2 percent.
Reis was among 15 Republican House members who voted with the Democratic majority to overturn Gov. Rauner's veto of the state budget in 2017. Nine of those 15 did not seek re-election this year. Five who did seek re-election faced primary challenges.
Conservative radio host Dan Proft's Liberty Principles PAC endorsed Bailey. The PAC endorsed nine candidates, including Mickey Straub (R), who challenged House Minority Leader Jim Durkin (R). All of the PAC’s candidates won Tuesday, save for Straub. Liberty Principles produced ads for, but did not endorse, three unsuccessful candidates.
What's ahead
There are no statewide primaries in April. But in May, 11 states have primaries in three consecutive weeks, with Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina kicking things off May 8.
Republicans battle to take on U.S. Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
The two biggest GOP primaries May 8 will determine who takes on U.S. Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Both Donnelly and Manchin are viewed as highly vulnerable, in part because Donald Trump won by double digit in both of their states.
In what Politico called the “GOP’s nastiest primary,” the Indiana contest take on Donnelly (pictured left) pits longtime rivals Luke Messer (R) against Todd Rokita (R). The two congressmen have clashed on everything from their relationships with Trump to allegations Messer brought in college students to win straw polls.
Their rivalry has dominated headlines, but former state Rep. Mike Braun (R), who is self-funding most of his campaign, has out-performed both in the money race.
Rokita’s internal polls have shown him leading. But they also show nearly 60 percent of voters are undecided.
The primary to take on Manchin (pictured right) in West Virginia is a showdown between Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) and U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (R).
Morrisey has the support of Tea Party-aligned groups and politicians, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and the Senate Conservatives Fund.
Jenkins is one of the only 2018 Senate candidates to say he will support Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as Senate majority leader.
Former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship could be a spoiler in the race as national Republicans fear that his connection to a 2010 coal mine explosion (for which he served time in federal prison) could make him a weak general election contender.
House primaries to replace Senate hopefuls
Four primaries in Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia will select nominees to replace Republicans incumbents running for the U.S. Senate.
* Indiana's 4th: A three-way matchup to replace Todd Rokita features state House veterans Jim Baird and Steve Braun and businessman Diego Morales. Braun leads in endorsements, but Morales leads in fundraising.
* Indiana’s 6th: Mike Pence’s older brother Greg is the frontrunner to replace Luke Messer in the House. His most prominent challenger is businessman Jonathan Lamb, who is self-funding his campaign and has criticized Pence for his Washington connections.
* Ohio’s 16th: With incumbent Jim Renacci running against U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in November, a battle between two young Republicans is underway for Renacci’s House seat. Former Ohio State football player Anthony Gonzalez has the support of top Republican donors and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), while state Rep. Christina Hagan has tied herself to Donald Trump and has the support of former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).
* West Virginia’s 3rd: Seven candidates are vying for the GOP nomination for Rep. Evan Jenkins' (R) open seat. In response to Ballotpedia's candidate survey, former West Virginia Republican Party chairman Conrad Lucas said he intends to “passionately support the Trump agenda in Congress and bring Southern West Virginia values to D.C." On her campaign website, Del. Carol Miller says she's running to "fight for our West Virginia Values and support President Trump." Both candidates reported raising over $100,000 at the end of 2017.
