How Sanders won Wisconsin
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April 6, 2016
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders capitalized on the energy and enthusiasm for his underdog White House bid, defeating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the April 5 Wisconsin Democratic primary, 57-to-43 percent. He’ll need all the momentum he can muster in upcoming battlegrounds like New York and Pennsylvania, where the Democratic primary electorate may not be as favorable for him as Wisconsin’s was.
Sanders’ victory was sweeping: he carried 71 of the state’s 72 counties, losing only the state’s biggest, Milwaukee, which Clinton narrowly won, 52-to-48 percent. With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, turnout in the Democratic contest was 1,003,904, about 110,000 fewer ballots than were cast in the 2008 Badger State Democratic primary that then Sen. Barack Obama won over Clinton, 58-to-41 percent.
But younger voters turned out at slightly higher rate in 2016 than 2008, according to the television network exit polls, and they continue to fuel Sanders’ candidacy. In 2008, 38 percent of the Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin were under the age of 45; this year, 43 percent were under 45. And Democratic voters in that cohort backed Sanders over Clinton, 73-to-26 percent.
Among Sanders’ strongest counties were those that had a large campus vote. He won Dane County, home to the state’s flagship University of Wisconsin campus in Madison, as well as Eau Claire and La Crosse Counties, which have major branches of the state’s university system, by more than 25 percentage points, each. Indeed, the band of counties from Rock County, home to Beloit College, up to the Eau Claire is arguably the state’s most left-leaning territory and Sanders also performed well in Vernon, Sauk and Monroe Counties.
Self-identified liberals, another group that tilts to Sanders, also made up a huge share of the Democratic primary voters, 67 percent. And three-out-of-five of those self-described liberal voters cast ballots for the Vermonter. In 2008, less than half, 46 percent, of the Wisconsin Democratic primary voters called themselves liberals.
Wisconsin does not have partisan voter registration and thus has an open primary in which anyone registered to vote can chose either the Democratic or Republican contest to cast a ballot. Sanders and Clinton split the vote of self-identified Democrats, but among the independents who voted in the Democratic, Sanders bested Clinton 72-to-28 percent.
There was also a significant gender gap in the Democratic contest. Sanders and Clinton basically split the votes of women who cast ballots in the Democratic primary, but the Vermonter won men by a whopping 64-to-35 percent. In 2008, Obama and Clinton split the women’s vote and Obama carried men, 67-to-31 percent.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He is a member of the CNN Decision Desk and will be helping to project the Democratic and Republican winners throughout the election cycle.
See also
- Presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
