Idaho's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

	2022 → ← 2018
Idaho's 1st Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: March 13, 2020
	Primary: June 2, 2020; General: November 3, 2020; Pre-election incumbent:; Russ Fulcher (Republican)
How to vote
	Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.; Voting in Idaho
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Solid Republican; Inside Elections: Solid Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
	Idaho's 1st Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd; Idaho elections, 2020; U.S. Congress elections, 2020; U.S. Senate elections, 2020; U.S. House elections, 2020; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Idaho, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Russ Fulcher won election in the general election for U.S. House Idaho District 1.

Candidate filing deadline	Primary election	General election
March 13, 2020	June 2, 2020	November 3, 2020

Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Russ Fulcher, who was first elected in 2018.

Idaho's 1st Congressional District encompasses the western and northern parts of the state and includes the western third of the state capital, Boise and most of its suburbs. It also includes Adams, Benewah, Boise, Bonner, Boundary, Canyon, Clearwater, Gem, Idaho, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Owyhee, Payette, Shoshone, Valley, and Washington counties along with a portion of Ada County.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Idaho's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race	Presidential	U.S. House
Democratic candidate	30.1	28.6
Republican candidate	67.1	67.8
Difference	37	39.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Idaho did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Idaho District 1

Incumbent Russ Fulcher defeated Rudy Soto, Joe Evans, and Pro-Life in the general election for U.S. House Idaho District 1 on November 3, 2020.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Russ Fulcher (R)	67.8	310,736
	Rudy Soto (D)	28.6	131,380
	Joe Evans (L)	3.6	16,453
	Pro-Life (Independent) (Write-in)	0.0	7

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 458,576
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 1

Rudy Soto defeated Staniela Nikolova in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 1 on June 2, 2020.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Rudy Soto	65.8	25,112
	Staniela Nikolova	34.2	13,074

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 38,186
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 1

Incumbent Russ Fulcher defeated Nicholas Jones in the Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 1 on June 2, 2020.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Russ Fulcher	79.9	93,879
	Nicholas Jones	20.1	23,654

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 117,533
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

No counties in Idaho are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Idaho with 59.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.5 percent. Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 6.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican 70 percent of the time and Democratic 30 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican all five times.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Idaho. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[1]^[2]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 13.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 17 points.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 38.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 39 points. Trump won three seats controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin
1	33.87%	62.34%	R+28.5	26.01%	65.46%	R+39.5
2	26.93%	70.62%	R+43.7	20.64%	71.95%	R+51.3
3	29.14%	68.14%	R+39	21.06%	70.57%	R+49.5
4	39.16%	57.97%	R+18.8	32.30%	58.13%	R+25.8
5	45.88%	49.34%	R+3.5	39.67%	46.41%	R+6.7
6	37.09%	60.34%	R+23.3	27.14%	63.35%	R+36.2
7	30.10%	66.90%	R+36.8	19.98%	72.55%	R+52.6
8	29.55%	67.36%	R+37.8	21.50%	69.20%	R+47.7
9	25.68%	71.70%	R+46	17.21%	74.09%	R+56.9
10	38.47%	58.37%	R+19.9	29.81%	58.12%	R+28.3
11	23.55%	73.82%	R+50.3	17.04%	72.09%	R+55.1
12	31.70%	65.46%	R+33.8	24.33%	62.75%	R+38.4
13	30.45%	66.85%	R+36.4	25.08%	62.48%	R+37.4
14	28.40%	69.37%	R+41	25.20%	62.69%	R+37.5
15	40.27%	56.38%	R+16.1	36.12%	49.48%	R+13.4
16	51.36%	45.03%	D+6.3	47.20%	39.26%	D+7.9
17	54.87%	40.25%	D+14.6	48.92%	35.61%	D+13.3
18	50.74%	45.74%	D+5	49.32%	37.45%	D+11.9
19	62.17%	34.02%	D+28.2	61.76%	27.06%	D+34.7
20	31.96%	65.66%	R+33.7	27.79%	57.58%	R+29.8
21	33.56%	63.72%	R+30.2	29.26%	57.07%	R+27.8
22	28.40%	68.66%	R+40.3	21.33%	65.07%	R+43.7
23	27.41%	69.63%	R+42.2	18.40%	72.24%	R+53.8
24	30.28%	66.54%	R+36.3	24.58%	61.74%	R+37.2
25	23.52%	73.82%	R+50.3	17.71%	70.40%	R+52.7
26	45.05%	52.29%	R+7.2	42.82%	47.54%	R+4.7
27	16.19%	81.96%	R+65.8	14.64%	72.01%	R+57.4
28	31.76%	66.06%	R+34.3	25.38%	57.30%	R+31.9
29	43.30%	53.10%	R+9.8	36.52%	46.08%	R+9.6
30	19.06%	78.92%	R+59.9	17.63%	62.15%	R+44.5
31	21.71%	76.35%	R+54.6	17.59%	65.61%	R+48
32	17.05%	81.10%	R+64.1	17.13%	65.98%	R+48.9
33	30.56%	66.37%	R+35.8	26.72%	54.03%	R+27.3
34	6.92%	92.00%	R+85.1	8.01%	59.90%	R+51.9
35	12.96%	85.32%	R+72.4	9.79%	72.97%	R+63.2
Total	32.62%	64.53%	R+31.9	27.49%	59.26%	R+31.8
Source: Daily Kos

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+21, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 21 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Idaho's 1st Congressional District the 32nd most Republican nationally.^[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.^[4]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.^[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.^[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Russ Fulcher	Republican Party	$582,993	$515,965	$102,831	As of December 31, 2020
Rudy Soto	Democratic Party	$305,169	$305,169	$0	As of December 7, 2020
Joe Evans	Libertarian Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Pro-Life	Independent	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. * Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[7]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[8]^[9]^[10]

Race ratings: Idaho's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 3, 2020	October 27, 2020	October 20, 2020	October 13, 2020
The Cook Political Report	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in Idaho in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Idaho, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Signature formula	Filing fee	Filing fee formula	Filing deadline	Source
Idaho	1st Congressional District	Qualified party	500	Fixed number	$300.00	Fixed number	3/13/2020	Source
Idaho	1st Congressional District	Unaffiliated	500	Fixed number	N/A	N/A	3/13/2020	Source

District election history