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Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Nov. 3 (in person); Oct. 8 (by mail); Oct. 9 (online)
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 19
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Photo ID
- Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| Idaho's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 13, 2020 |
| Primary: June 2, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Michael Simpson (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Idaho |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd Idaho elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Idaho, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson won election in the general election for U.S. House Idaho District 2.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Michael Simpson, who was first elected in 1998. The election was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.
Idaho's 2nd Congressional District encompasses eastern Idaho and the Magic Valley region of the state and other outlying areas, as well as a small portion of the Boise Metropolitan Area, including two-thirds of the city of Boise itself. The district includes the counties of Bannock, Bear Lake, Bingham, Blaine, Bonneville, Butte, Camas, Caribou, Cassia, Clark, Custer, Elmore, Franklin, Fremont, Gooding, Jefferson, Jerome, Lemhi, Lincoln, Madison, Minidoka, Oneida, Power, Teton, and Twin Falls. A portion of Ada County lies within the district.
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
36.6 | 31.7 |
Republican candidate  |
60.1 | 64.1 |
| Difference | 23.5 | 32.4 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Idaho did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson defeated Aaron Swisher, Pro-Life, and Idaho Law in the general election for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Michael K. Simpson (R) | 64.1 | 250,669 |
 | Aaron Swisher (D) | 31.7 | 124,151 | |
 | Pro-Life (Constitution Party) | 2.2 | 8,573 | |
 | Idaho Law (L)  | 2.0 | 7,940 | |
| Total votes: 391,333 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Aaron Swisher advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Aaron Swisher | 100.0 | 37,495 |
| Total votes: 37,495 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson defeated Kevin Rhoades in the Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael K. Simpson | 72.0 | 68,675 |
| Kevin Rhoades | 28.0 | 26,724 | ||
| Total votes: 95,399 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
No counties in Idaho are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Idaho with 59.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.5 percent. Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 6.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican 70 percent of the time and Democratic 30 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican all five times.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Idaho. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[1][2]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 13.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 17 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 38.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 39 points. Trump won three seats controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | |
| 1 | 33.87% | 62.34% | R+28.5 | 26.01% | 65.46% | R+39.5 | |
| 2 | 26.93% | 70.62% | R+43.7 | 20.64% | 71.95% | R+51.3 | |
| 3 | 29.14% | 68.14% | R+39 | 21.06% | 70.57% | R+49.5 | |
| 4 | 39.16% | 57.97% | R+18.8 | 32.30% | 58.13% | R+25.8 | |
| 5 | 45.88% | 49.34% | R+3.5 | 39.67% | 46.41% | R+6.7 | |
| 6 | 37.09% | 60.34% | R+23.3 | 27.14% | 63.35% | R+36.2 | |
| 7 | 30.10% | 66.90% | R+36.8 | 19.98% | 72.55% | R+52.6 | |
| 8 | 29.55% | 67.36% | R+37.8 | 21.50% | 69.20% | R+47.7 | |
| 9 | 25.68% | 71.70% | R+46 | 17.21% | 74.09% | R+56.9 | |
| 10 | 38.47% | 58.37% | R+19.9 | 29.81% | 58.12% | R+28.3 | |
| 11 | 23.55% | 73.82% | R+50.3 | 17.04% | 72.09% | R+55.1 | |
| 12 | 31.70% | 65.46% | R+33.8 | 24.33% | 62.75% | R+38.4 | |
| 13 | 30.45% | 66.85% | R+36.4 | 25.08% | 62.48% | R+37.4 | |
| 14 | 28.40% | 69.37% | R+41 | 25.20% | 62.69% | R+37.5 | |
| 15 | 40.27% | 56.38% | R+16.1 | 36.12% | 49.48% | R+13.4 | |
| 16 | 51.36% | 45.03% | D+6.3 | 47.20% | 39.26% | D+7.9 | |
| 17 | 54.87% | 40.25% | D+14.6 | 48.92% | 35.61% | D+13.3 | |
| 18 | 50.74% | 45.74% | D+5 | 49.32% | 37.45% | D+11.9 | |
| 19 | 62.17% | 34.02% | D+28.2 | 61.76% | 27.06% | D+34.7 | |
| 20 | 31.96% | 65.66% | R+33.7 | 27.79% | 57.58% | R+29.8 | |
| 21 | 33.56% | 63.72% | R+30.2 | 29.26% | 57.07% | R+27.8 | |
| 22 | 28.40% | 68.66% | R+40.3 | 21.33% | 65.07% | R+43.7 | |
| 23 | 27.41% | 69.63% | R+42.2 | 18.40% | 72.24% | R+53.8 | |
| 24 | 30.28% | 66.54% | R+36.3 | 24.58% | 61.74% | R+37.2 | |
| 25 | 23.52% | 73.82% | R+50.3 | 17.71% | 70.40% | R+52.7 | |
| 26 | 45.05% | 52.29% | R+7.2 | 42.82% | 47.54% | R+4.7 | |
| 27 | 16.19% | 81.96% | R+65.8 | 14.64% | 72.01% | R+57.4 | |
| 28 | 31.76% | 66.06% | R+34.3 | 25.38% | 57.30% | R+31.9 | |
| 29 | 43.30% | 53.10% | R+9.8 | 36.52% | 46.08% | R+9.6 | |
| 30 | 19.06% | 78.92% | R+59.9 | 17.63% | 62.15% | R+44.5 | |
| 31 | 21.71% | 76.35% | R+54.6 | 17.59% | 65.61% | R+48 | |
| 32 | 17.05% | 81.10% | R+64.1 | 17.13% | 65.98% | R+48.9 | |
| 33 | 30.56% | 66.37% | R+35.8 | 26.72% | 54.03% | R+27.3 | |
| 34 | 6.92% | 92.00% | R+85.1 | 8.01% | 59.90% | R+51.9 | |
| 35 | 12.96% | 85.32% | R+72.4 | 9.79% | 72.97% | R+63.2 | |
| Total | 32.62% | 64.53% | R+31.9 | 27.49% | 59.26% | R+31.8 | |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Idaho's 2nd Congressional District the 66th most Republican nationally.[3]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[4]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael K. Simpson | Republican Party | $1,010,347 | $1,101,104 | $176,314 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Aaron Swisher | Democratic Party | $74,674 | $74,268 | $7,851 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Pro-Life | Constitution Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Idaho Law | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]
| Race ratings: Idaho's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Candidate ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Idaho in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Idaho, click here.
| Filing requirements, 2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
| Idaho | 2nd Congressional District | Qualified party | 500 | Fixed number | $300.00 | Fixed number | 3/13/2020 | Source |
| Idaho | 2nd Congressional District | Unaffiliated | 500 | Fixed number | N/A | N/A | 3/13/2020 | Source |
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson defeated Aaron Swisher in the general election for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael K. Simpson (R) | 60.7 | 170,274 |
| Aaron Swisher (D) | 39.3 | 110,381 | |
| Total votes: 280,655 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Aaron Swisher defeated Peter Rickards in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Aaron Swisher | 67.6 | 18,709 |
| Peter Rickards | 32.4 | 8,987 | ||
| Total votes: 27,696 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Shizandra Fox (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2
Incumbent Michael K. Simpson advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Idaho District 2 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael K. Simpson | 100.0 | 72,243 |
| Total votes: 72,243 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Michael Simpson (R) defeated Jennifer Martinez (D) and Anthony Tomkins (Constitution Party) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Simpson defeated Lisa Marie in the Republican primary on May 17, 2016.[11][12]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Michael Simpson Incumbent |
62.9% | 205,292 | |
| Democratic | Jennifer Martinez | 29.4% | 95,940 | |
| Constitution | Anthony Tomkins | 7.7% | 25,005 | |
| Total Votes | 326,237 | |||
| Source: Idaho Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Michael Simpson Incumbent |
73% | 47,116 | ||
| Lisa Marie | 27% | 17,442 | ||
| Total Votes | 64,558 | |||
| Source: Idaho Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 2nd Congressional District of Idaho held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Michael K. Simpson (R) defeated Richard Stallings (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Simpson Incumbent |
61.4% | 131,492 | |
| Democratic | Richard Stallings | 38.6% | 82,801 | |
| Total Votes | 214,293 | |||
| Source: Idaho Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Idaho, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Idaho Secretary of State, "2016 May Primary Candidate List," accessed March 12, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Idaho Results," May 17, 2016
