Illinois' 10th Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
March 20, 2012 |
Brad Schneider  |
Robert J. Dold  |
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The 10th Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Democrat Brad Schneider won the election.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Illinois has a mixed-hybrid primary system. Voters can change parties each year but must declare a party affiliation at the polls. Depending on which party is chosen, the voter will then be counted as registered for that party. Voters may change party affiliation at polls or caucus.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by February 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9. A "grace period" was also available, allowing voter registration until three days before an election.[2][3]
- See also: Illinois elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Robert J. Dold (R), who was first elected in 2010. Dold no longer lived in the redrawn district,[4] but said he would move into the district if he won re-election.[5] An article in The Hill listed Robert J. Dold as the 5th most vulnerable Republican incumbent in 2012 as a result of redistricting.[6]
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. Illinois' 10th Congressional District lies in the northeast corner of the state and mostly comprises northern suburbs of Chicago, taking up a majority of Lake County.[7]
Candidates
General election candidates
- Brad Schneider
- Robert J. Dold
- Aloys Rutagwibira (Write-in)
March 20, 2012, primary results
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- Note:Aloys Rutagwibira was removed from the official candidate list on February 2, 2012[14]
Election results
General Election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Brad Schneider |
50.6% | 133,890 | |
| Republican | Robert J. Dold Incumbent | 49.4% | 130,564 | |
| Total Votes | 264,454 | |||
| Source: Illinois Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals" | ||||
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Brad Schneider |
46.9% | 15,530 |
| Ilya Sheyman | 38.6% | 12,767 |
| John Tree | 8.9% | 2,938 |
| Vivek Bavda | 5.7% | 1,881 |
| Total Votes | 33,116 | |
Race background
Illinois' 10th was considered to be leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Robert J. Dold was one that Democrats have set their sights on ousting in 2012. He ran for re-election in one of the most Democratic districts in the nation.[15]
Within the Democratic primary, candidates Ilya Sheyman and Brad Schneider had campaigned most heavily against each other, in a race characterized by Sheyman's supporters as a "choice between a progressive and a 'Blue Dog,' a reference to the coalition of conservative House Democrats."[16] In an article from "Talking Points Memo," Schneider's campaign manager Jerrod Backous stated, “Brad has never been asked and he would never join the Blue Dog Coalition,” in direct response to critique from Sheyman's supporters who argued that Schneider had aligned himself politically with conservative House Democrats' "Blue Dog Coalition."[16]
Ilya Sheyman was endorsed by MoveOn, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) and Howard Dean over opponents Brad Schneider, Vivek Bavda and John Tree in the Democratic primary,[17] while Brad Schneider received support from Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and others within the Illinois and national party establishment.[16]
Illinois' 10th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[18]
Incumbent Robert J. Dold was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[19]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in Illinois
With the 2011 redistricting, Illinois lost 1 of its current 19 House seats because the state's population failed to grow as fast as in other states.[20] Illinois has had 11 Republican congressmen and 8 Democrats since the November 2010 election.[20] The new map, designed by the dominant Democrats, could have flipped that advantage to as many as 12 Democrats and only six Republicans.[20]
Dold won the Democratic-leaning suburban Chicago 10th District in 2010 by a narrow three-point margin.[21] In the redistricting process the district was pushed further into the suburbs, making it a bit more Democratic, and removing some of the swing voters that had allowed him to win in 2010.[6] Because of this, The Hill listed Robert J. Dold as the 5th most vulnerable Republican incumbents in 2012 as a result of redistricting.[6]
The new 10th District was composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[22][23]
- 32 percent from the 8th Congressional District
- 5 percent from the 9th Congressional District
- 62 percent from the 10th Congressional District
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Illinois' 10th District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[24]
- 2012: 60D / 40R
- 2010: 58D / 42R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Illinois' 10th Congressional District has a PVI of D+8, which is the 123rd most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 64-36 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, John Kerry (D) won the district 54-46 percent over George W. Bush (R).[25]
Campaign donors
2012
Brad Schneider
| Brad Schneider (2012)[26] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Primary[27] | March 8, 2012 | $451,786.88 | $131,597.13 | $(373,648.27) | $209,735.74 | ||||
| April Quarterly[28] | April 15, 2012 | $209,735.74 | $268,886.20 | $(252,422.43) | $226,199.51 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $400,483.33 | $(626,070.7) | ||||||||
Robert Dold
| Robert J. Dold (2012)[29] Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Primary[30] | March 8, 2012 | $1,241,296.35 | $205,068.17 | $(152,704.54) | $1,293,659.98 | ||||
| April Quarterly[31] | April 15, 2012 | $1,293,659.98 | $397,866.81 | $(49,738.06) | $1,641,788.73 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $602,934.98 | $(202,442.6) | ||||||||
Dold raised just over $1 million in the third quarter.[32]
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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2010
On November 2, 2010, Robert J. Dold won election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Daniel J. Seals (D) and Author C. Brumfield (I) in the general election.[33]
| U.S. House, Illinois District 10, General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Robert J. Dold |
51.1% | 109,941 | |
| Democratic | Daniel J. Seals | 48.9% | 105,290 | |
| Independent | Author C. Brumfield | 0% | 1 | |
| Total Votes | 215,232 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Illinois, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
External links
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets.org
- Candidate debate, ABC 7 Chicago, October 13, 2012, complete video
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Illinois"
- ↑ Illinois Board of Elections, "2012 Election Calendar," accessed July 21, 2012
- ↑ Illinois Board of Elections, "Registering to Vote in Illinois," accessed July 21, 2012
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times, "Illinois Democrats target GOP with redrawing of congressional map" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ Libertyville Patch, "Dold Will Run in Remapped 10th" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedhill - ↑ June 2011 Illinois Redistricting, "Map" accessed July 23, 2012
- ↑ Buffalo Grove Patch "Third Democrat Enters 10th Congressional Race" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ ABC News 7 "Election Results Primary 2012" accessed March 20, 2012
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times "Brad Schneider running in Illinois 10 Democratic primary" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ abc7.com "Waukegan Dem announces bid for congressional seat" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times "Illinois Ten Democratic primary: John Tree, Air Force reservist, jumps in race" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ Chicago Sun-Times "Illinois Democrats target GOP with redrawing of congressional map" accessed December 5, 2011
- ↑ Illinois Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed February 10, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedTPM - ↑ Talking Points Memo, "The Illinois Progressive Out To Put A ‘Blue Dog’ Down" accessed March 19, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 Chicago Tribune, "Odd geography in new Illinois congressional map:Millions of constituents will find their representative has changed" accessed February 22, 2012
- ↑ The Hill, "Most vulnerable redistricted Republicans" accessed March 12, 2012
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Illinois' congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Illinois," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Brad Schneider Summary Reports" accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Pre-Primary" accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Robert J. Dold Summary Reports" accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "Pre-Primary" accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ FEC Reports, "April Quarterly" accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ Politico, "Kemp's shadow--Labor targets Allen--Romney's fast food binge--Ohio appeals--Dems keep registration lead in 4 battlegrounds," accessed October 10, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
