Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2018

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Illinois' 12th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 4, 2017
Primary: March 20, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Mike Bost (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+5
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Illinois' 12th Congressional District
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Illinois elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Mike Bost (R) defeated Brendan Kelly (D) and Randy Auxier (G) in the 2018 general election for Illinois' 12th Congressional District.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Prior to Bost's election in 2014, the seat had been held by Democrats since 1993. Bost was re-elected in 2016 with a 14 point margin of victory over his Democratic opponent. The 12th District was targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in 2018.[1]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Incumbent Mike Bost defeated Brendan Kelly and Randy Auxier in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Bost
Mike Bost (R)
 
51.6
 
134,884
Image of Brendan Kelly
Brendan Kelly (D)
 
45.4
 
118,724
Image of Randy Auxier
Randy Auxier (G)
 
3.0
 
7,935

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 261,543
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Brendan Kelly defeated David Bequette in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brendan Kelly
Brendan Kelly
 
81.0
 
40,555
Image of David Bequette
David Bequette
 
19.0
 
9,526

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 50,081
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Incumbent Mike Bost defeated Preston Nelson in the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Bost
Mike Bost
 
83.5
 
31,658
Image of Preston Nelson
Preston Nelson
 
16.5
 
6,258

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 37,916
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Randy Auxier advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Randy Auxier
Randy Auxier
 
100.0
 
131

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 131
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Randy Auxier, professor of philosophy and communications studies
Randy Main Pic.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Green

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Auxier received a Ph.D. in philosophy from Emory University. At the time of the election, he was a professor of philosophy and communications studies at Southern Illinois University Carbondale, deputy chief editor of the journal Eidos, and a member of the National Education Association.[2]

Key messages
  • Auxier said that people should vote for him because "[n]o one would own me and no one except the voters here could tell me what I should do." He said that both Bost and Kelly would work for their party bosses and large donors over the people.[3][4]
  • Auxier criticized both Democrats' and Republicans' records in the district. He said the district hadn't seen significant progress either during the 22 years Democrats represented it in Congress or in the four years Bost had.[3]
  • Auxier emphasized his support for a single-payer universal healthcare system, saying it would mitigate the opioid crisis and create a more competitive workforce.[5][4][3]



Mike Bost, U.S. representative from Illinois
Mike Bost2.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S representative from Illinois' 12th Congressional District (Assumed office: 2015); Illinois State House of Representatives (1995-2015); Trustee of Murphysboro Township (1993-1995); Treasurer of Murphysboro Township (1989-1992); Jackson County Board (1984-1988)

Biography: Mike Bost was an electronic specialist and radar repairman in the Marines and served as a firefighter during his time in the state legislature. He and his wife started a nail salon business.

Key messages
  • Bost's campaign ads described him as a fighter. Bost said that he worked to reduce regulations on farmers and to reform the Department of Veterans Affairs to help veterans access care. He also said he had worked against trade policies that would cause job loss in the state.[3]
  • Bost said that every bill he sponsored had bipartisan support.[3][6]
  • Bost said that Kelly couldn't be trusted when saying he wouldn't support Nancy Pelosi's speakership if Democrats won a majority in the House. Bost said that fall advertisements supporting Kelly's campaign would be funded by groups aligned with Pelosi and that Kelly should call for them to be pulled.[7]



Brendan Kelly, state's attorney of St. Clair County
Brendan Kelly2.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Kelly received a degree in government and international relations from Notre Dame University and was an officer in the Navy. He was a representative for the National District Attorneys Association. He also served as an executive committee member of Fight Crime, Invest in Kids and as chairman of the St. Clair County Child Advocacy Center. At the time of the 2018 election, he was the state's attorney of St. Clair County.

Key messages
  • Kelly said he wanted to save southern Illinois and restore faith in the political system. He proposed rebuilding infrastructure and reducing the role of money in politics as key ways of doing so.[8]
  • Kelly's campaign ads criticized Bost by saying he took money from the pharmaceutical industry and banks and by stressing the amount of time Bost had been in political office.
  • Kelly highlighted his work as state's attorney for St. Clair County, saying he was the first prosecutor in Illinois to sue pharmaceutical companies for what he described as their role in the opioid epidemic.[8]



Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Illinois' 12th Congressional District 2018, Bost v. Kelly
Poll Mike Bost Brendan KellyUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
The New York Times Upshot/Siena College
October 18-22, 2018		 48%39%11%+/-4.7502
The New York Times/Siena College
September 4-7, 2018		 44%43%13%+/-4.6533
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mike Bost Republican Party $2,872,975 $2,875,064 $5,321 As of December 31, 2018
Brendan Kelly Democratic Party $3,931,101 $3,927,042 $4,060 As of December 31, 2018
Randy Auxier Green Party $14,979 $16,656 $-5 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[9][10][11]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, spent $3.6 million on media opposing Kelly through October.[12]
    • The group announced in April that it had reserved $2 million in fall television advertising time for this race.[13]
  • House Majority PAC spent $218,000 on ads opposing Bost as of September 19.[14]
    • The group spent an additional $651,000 on ads opposing Bost in October.[12]


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[15]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[16][17][18]

Race ratings: Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean RepublicanLean RepublicanToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Illinois' 12th Congressional District the 192nd most Republican nationally.[19]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.17. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.17 points toward that party.[20]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Illinois' 12th Congressional District election endorsements
Endorsement Bost Kelly
National figures
Former President Barack Obama (D)[21] ✔
Former Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D)[22] ✔
Newspapers
The St. Louis American[23] ✔
The Southern Illinoisan[24] ✔
Organizations
American Federation of Government Employees[25] ✔
National Education Association[26] ✔
Illinois Education Association[26] ✔

Timeline

  • October 31, 2018: Former Vice Pres. Joe Biden (D) campaigned for Kelly and other Illinois Democrats at an East St. Louis rally.[27]
  • October 27, 2018: Pres. Donald Trump (R) held a rally with Bost at Southern Illinois Airport in Murphysboro.[28]
  • October 23, 2018: All three candidates participated in a debate at Southern Illinois University.
  • October 22, 2018: An NYT Upshot/Siena College poll showed Bost leading Kelly 48 percent to 39 percent, with 11 percent of respondents undecided.
  • September 7, 2018: An NYT Upshot/Siena College poll showed Bost and Kelly tied within the margin of error (+/- 4.6 percentage points). Bost had 44 percent support to Kelly's 43 percent.
  • August 1, 2018: Barack Obama endorsed Kelly.

Campaign advertisements

Republican Party Mike Bost

Support

"At It Again" - Bost campaign ad released September 17, 2018
"Mike Bost for Southern Illinois" - Bost campaign ad released September 5, 2018
"Mike Bost for Congress" - Bost campaign ad released August 2, 2018

Oppose

"Travel" - Kelly campaign ad released October 31, 2018
"Sarah" - Kelly campaign ad released October 27, 2018
"Thirty Years" - House Majority PAC ad released October 23, 2018
"Values St. Louis" - Kelly campaign ad released October 18, 2018
"1984" - DCCC ad released October 9, 2018
"Crisis" - End Citizens United ad released September 26, 2018
"Service" - Kelly campaign ad released September 18, 2018
"Inspection" - Kelly campaign ad released September 13, 2018
"Chance" - Kelly campaign ad released September 7, 2018
"Price" - House Majority PAC ad released July 29, 2018

Democratic Party Brendan Kelly

Support

"Survivors" - Kelly campaign ad released October 8, 2018
"Leadership" - End Citizens United ad released September 26, 2018
"Facts" - Kelly campaign ad released September 25, 2018
"Jennifer" - Kelly campaign ad released August 27, 2018
"Faith" - Kelly campaign ad released August 27, 2018
"Jobs" - Kelly campaign ad released August 6, 2018
"Terra" - Kelly campaign ad released April 25, 2018


Oppose

"$2,200" - CLF PAC ad released October 26, 2018
"Brendan Kelly Failed to Protect Women" - Bost campaign ad released October 22, 2018
"Brendan Kelly Has Failed Women" - Bost campaign ad released October 5, 2018
"Police Chief" - CLF PAC ad released September 26, 2018
"Unprosecuted" - CLF PAC ad released September 18, 2018

Debates and forums

  • October 23, 2018: All three candidates participated in a debate at Southern Illinois University. Click here to view a video of the event. For additional coverage, click here.

Campaign themes

Mike Bost

The following themes were found on Bost's campaign website.

“

Improving Agriculture
Protecting our agricultural economy is vital to the sustainability of Southern Illinois. That’s why Mike has fought to reduce regulatory burdens that strangle our farmers and ranchers.

He’s also worked to provide our producers with the tools they need to help mitigate against risk in a fiscally responsible way through the Farm Bill.

Additionally, Mike has sponsored critical legislation to help beginning farmers and ranchers access credit. He’s also voted to make major investments in rural broadband that would benefit under-served areas like Southern Illinois.

Moving Toward Energy Independence
Southern Illinois has a proud heritage of coal mining and contains significant coal deposits. Recently, new technologies have developed to more efficiently produce energy from this coal with less pollution. Unfortunately, there remain those opposed to any use of fossil fuels.

Mike has consistently supported an all-of-the above energy policy that makes use of all our nation’s resources. As Southern Illinois families struggle with higher energy bills, Mike believes it’s common sense to use the resources that are proven and affordable.

Moving Our Economy Forward
Mike has fought for policies that allow working families to keep more of their hard-earned money and promote economic growth.

Mike voted for Tax Reform legislation, which gives an average tax cut of over $2,2000 to Southern Illinois families. He’s also voted to roll back job-killing regulations left over by the Obama Administration.

Accessible & Affordable Healthcare
Mike believes that Southern Illinoisans should have the right to make their own health care choices. That’s why he supports allowing businesses and associations to pull together their health plans to obtain larger health care premium discounts from major health insurers.

He wants to encourage more, not less competition, in the Medicare system by expanding, not shrinking, the popular Medicare Advantage program. We need to support measures that reduce costs, which will ultimately affect the price of premiums and the number of people who can afford insurance.

Reining in Government Spending
Money doesn’t grow on trees, but those in Washington often think it does. For too long, legislators went to Washington with a focus of “how much to spend” instead of “what to cut.” Because of that mindset, federal spending is out-of-control with growing deficits that place the burden on future generations.

Just as Americans must balance their own household budgets, Congress should be held to the same standards. Congress must make decisions that balance our federal budget in a reasonable, responsible way that leaves a country to our children and grandchildren better than the one we inherited.

Providing for Our National Defense
As a U.S. Marine, Mike is committed to a strong national defense. With growing threats to U.S. interests around the world, he knows we must ensure our military is the best-trained and most advanced in the world so we meet the challenges of today and prepare for threats of tomorrow.

Mike is a strong supporter of a robust defense budget and a proud advocate for Scott Air Force Base – a vital economic engine to Southern Illinois.

Protecting Social Security & Medicare
Those counting on Social Security and Medicare should not have to worry about the promises that were made to them are kept. Mike opposes efforts to privatize, raise the retirement age or increase the payroll tax.

Congress must work together to prevent the financial collapse of these programs by promoting bipartisan efforts to address systemic problems and ensure its longevity for current and future generations.

Guaranteeing 2nd Amendment Rights
We have a constitutionally protected right to keep and bear arms and it must be preserved and defended at all levels of government. Period.[29]

”
—Mike Bost's 2018 campaign website[30]

Brendan Kelly

The following themes were found on Kelly's campaign website.

“

Infrastructure
We live in the greatest country in the world. Yet everyday in Southern Illinois our kids struggle to access high speed Internet, our bridges crumble, potholes riddle our roads, and sewage leaks into police stations built 75 years ago. Whole communities lose access to clean water because rusty, breaking pipes haven’t been updated in decades. This is not what life in Southern Illinois should be. We must do better.

It’s time to literally rebuild Southern Illinois. It’s time to invest hard dollars in projects that will grow our economy, put thousands of people in organized labor back to work, and ensure Southern Illinois won’t be left behind in the 21st century. A four lane highway between Carbondale and St. Louis will make travel to SIU easier, which will help grow enrollment. Public investment that expands internet access will allow our communities that have been ignored by the big cable companies to compete on an equal playing field with the rest of the world. We need to make the ways we collect and distribute energy more efficient. We can use our brownfields for solar energy, and use our crops for biofuel.

Updating our grid will make our energy sources less susceptible to foreign hackers and put union electricians back on the lines. We must focus on the specific needs of Southern Illinois. The numerous infrastructure needs for the Kaskaskia must be a federal priority. Let’s fulfill the potential of the Cairo Port Authority, bring tourism to Cahokia Mounds by turning it into a National Park, build more ramps onto I-57 near Benton, and turn that old Bombardier factory into a hub for growing companies.

Fighting the Powerful Few
I grew up in Southern Illinois, and after serving in the Navy, I made a choice to return home. I made that choice because when you’re from Southern Illinois, you know right from wrong. You know your neighbors. You know the meaning of community. We all work together, and the need of others come before your own.

But that’s not the way it is in D.C. Political and economic power is being consolidated in the hands of fewer and fewer people. They have a vested interest in seeing us divided and torn apart. As their power grows and near monopolies get bigger and bigger, every part of our lives fall beneath their shadow. The price of almost everything–healthcare, prescriptions, cable, and even beer–creeps higher and higher. Big Pharma profits from the opioid crisis it created, and then cowers behind donors in Congress. Meanwhile, a flood of dark, secret political money erodes the basic pillars of our democracy.

Southern Illinois deserves a Congressman who will take the basic, common sense decency of home to Washington. We need a leader who will stand with working families and hold the special interests to the same rules as the rest of us. It’s time for the hard working many in Southern Illinois to fight back against the powerful few.

Holding Big Pharma in Check
I was the very first prosecutor in Illinois to sue big pharmaceutical companies for their role in the opioid crisis ripping through our families and communities.

Still, Big Pharma’s grip over Congress just keeps getting tighter. We know that huge amounts of money flow from Big Pharma to Congress. Lobbyists paid by Big Pharma swarm through the halls and offices of our representatives. Checks arrive like clockwork in P.O. Boxes all over the country, and are promptly deposited into campaign coffers. All the the while, drug prices just keep going up and up.

So, what does Congress do? It hands Big Pharma a massive $50 billion windfall. But instead of investing in more research and hiring more people, the pharmaceutical companies lay off workers, cut research and development, and buy more of their own stock on Wall Street.

We need leaders who will keep Big Pharma in check. We need leaders who will allow Medicare to negotiate prices, a move which will save seniors’ money and lives. We need leaders who will listen to science, and will commit to easing the restrictions on cannabis research and removing marijuana from the Schedule 1 drug list. We need new leaders who will fight for our lives, turn down the easy money, and stop Big Pharma from blindly profiting off the destruction and pain of Southern Illinois families. We need leaders who will demand that pharmaceutical companies become part of the solution, not part of the problem.[29]

”
—Brendan Kelly's 2018 campaign website[8]


Randy Auxier

The following themes were found on Auxier's campaign website.

“

I want you to know what I think, but I also want to make it clear that I listen. Nothing here is set in stone or is beyond influencing. My basic values are settled at this point in my life, and they are well expressed in the ten key values of the Green party. But no one knows everything and no one can afford to act as if he/she has nothing further to learn. These statements represent my current best understanding of the issues I am addressing, but I fully expect to revise the specifics and even some general ideas as I learn more, from you and by dint of further study. I do not believe my opponents are as dedicated to detailed learning and I do not believe they want you to know the details of their thinking as I do. You decide.

I am not personally the author of every piece published here, although I am the primary author of most. But we see this campaign as a group effort of a lot of people and incorporating each other's ideas is an important part of that. Thus, all of my pieces have been thoroughly edited by the group, and primary authorship of various pieces belongs to others including Sabrina Hardenbergh, Joshua Hellmann, and Kyle Rowbotham. The editing group also includes Rich Whitney, Lee Hartmann, and Vito Mastrangelo.

I support the platform of the Green Party of the United States. Like all party members, I may disagree with specific statements in the platform, but it is a good guide for where I stand on the issues.

[29]

”
—Randy Auxier's 2018 campaign website[5]


Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Republican Party Mike Bost Facebook

Democratic Party Brendan Kelly Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[31][32]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District history

2016

See also: Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Bost (R) defeated C.J. Baricevic (D) and Paula Bradshaw (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Bost and Baricevic both ran unopposed in their respective primaries, while Paula Bradshaw defeated Sadona Folkner to win the Green Party nomination.[33][34]

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Bost Incumbent 54.3% 169,976
     Democratic C.J. Baricevic 39.7% 124,246
     Green Paula Bradshaw 6% 18,780
Total Votes 313,002
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections


U.S. House, Illinois District 12 Green Party Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaula Bradshaw 80.1% 117
Sadona Folkner 19.9% 29
Total Votes 146
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Illinois' 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent William Enyart (D) was defeated by Mike Bost (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Bost 52.5% 110,038
     Democratic Bill Enyart Incumbent 41.9% 87,860
     Green Paula Bradshaw 5.6% 11,840
Total Votes 209,738
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections Official Results

2012

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam Enyart 51.7% 157,000
     Republican Jason Plummer 42.7% 129,902
     Green Paula Bradshaw 5.6% 17,045
Total Votes 303,947
Source: Illinois Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jerry F. Costello won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Teri Newman (R) and Rodger Jennings (G) in the general election.[35]

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJerry F. Costello Incumbent 59.8% 121,272
     Republican Teri Newman 36.5% 74,046
     Green Rodger Jennings 3.6% 7,387
Total Votes 202,705

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Illinois heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Illinois General Assembly. They had a 67-51 majority in the state House and a 37-22 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Illinois was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Bruce Rauner (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Illinois elections, 2018

Illinois held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Illinois
 IllinoisU.S.
Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:72.3%73.6%
Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
Asian:5%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,574$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Illinois' three largest cities were Chicago (pop. est. 2.7 million), Aurora (pop. est. 200,000), and Joliet (pop. est. 150,000).[36][37]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Illinois every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.8% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.8% 17.0%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.7% 16.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.8% 25.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.5% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 54.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 42.6% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth 54.9% Republican Party Mark Kirk 39.8% 15.1%
2014 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 53.5% Republican Party Jim Oberweis 42.7% 10.8%
2010 Republican Party Mark Kirk 48.0% Democratic Party Alexander Giannoulias 46.4% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 67.8% Republican Party Steve Sauerberg 28.5% 39.3%
2004 Democratic Party Barack Obama 70.0% Republican Party Alan Keyes 27.0% 43.0%
2002 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 60.3% Republican Party Jim Durkin 38.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Illinois.

Election results (Governor), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bruce Rauner 50.3% Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.3% 4.0%
2010 Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.8% Republican Party Bill Brady 45.9% 0.9%
2006 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 49.8% Republican Party Judy Baar Topinka 39.3% 10.5%
2002 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 52.2% Republican Party Jim Ryan 45.1% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Illinois in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Illinois 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 38.9% Democratic Party 11 61.1% D+4
2014 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2012 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 12 66.7% D+6
2010 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 10 52.6% Democratic Party 9 47.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 10 50.0% Democratic Party 10 50.0% Even

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Illinois Party Control: 1992-2025
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ DCCC, "Races," accessed October 24, 2018
  2. ↑ Randy Auxier's 2018 campaign website, "About," accessed October 25, 2018
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 C-Span, "Illinois 12th Congressional District Debate," October 23, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Belleville News-Democrat, "Candidate Profile: Randy Auxier," October 2, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Randy Auxier's 2018 campaign website, "Positions," accessed October 15, 2018
  6. ↑ The Southern Illinoisan,"Opinion | Mike Bost: Workhorses get things done," September 23, 2018
  7. ↑ Mike Bost's 2018 campaign website, "Blog," accessed September 21, 2018
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Brendan Kelly's 2018 campaign website, "Priorities," accessed September 20, 2018
  9. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  10. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  11. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 ProPublica, "Illinois’s 12th District House Race - 2018 cycle," accessed November 4, 2018
  13. ↑ Congressional Leadership Fund, "CLF Announced $48 Million in General Election Advertising Spending," April 17, 2018
  14. ↑ Open Secrets, "House Majority PAC," accessed September 20, 2018
  15. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  16. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  17. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  18. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  19. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  20. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  21. ↑ NBC Chicago, "Obama Endorses 6 Democratic Candidates in Illinois," August 1, 2018
  22. ↑ KFVS, "Biden endorses Kelly for Congress," May 2, 2018
  23. ↑ The St. Louis American, "The American endorses Brendan Kelly for Illinois’ 12th Congressional District," November 1, 2018
  24. ↑ The Southern Illinoisan, "Voice of The Southern: As 12th District Congressman, Bost won't listen. Give Kelly a chance," November 4, 2018
  25. ↑ American Federation of Government Employees, "AFGE Endorses Mike Bost for Reelection," April 26, 2018
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Politico, "About those RICKETTS RUMORS — MIKE BOST, teachers’ pet — GOP’s McSWEENEY says vote for DEM LIPINSKI," October 19, 2018
  27. ↑ WSIL, "Former Vice President Joe Biden Campaigns for Brendan Kelly," October 31, 2018
  28. ↑ WGLT, "Trump To Hold Rally For Bost In Southern Illinois," October 23, 2018
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 29.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  30. ↑ Mike Bost's 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed September 20, 2018
  31. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  32. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  33. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  34. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016
  35. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  36. ↑ Illinois Demographics, "Illinois Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  37. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Illinois," accessed December 11, 2017
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Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)

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