Your feedback ensures we stay focused on the facts that matter to you most—take our survey

Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022 →
← 2018
Illinois' 12th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 2, 2019
Primary: March 17, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Mike Bost (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Illinois' 12th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th
Illinois elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 12th Congressional District of Illinois, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Mike Bost won election in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 12.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 2, 2019
March 17, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Mike Bost, who was first elected in 2014.

Illinois' 12th Congressional District makes up the southern tip of the state. It includes the counties of Jefferson, Perry, Franklin, Williamson, Union, Alexander, Pulaski, Jackson, Randolph, Monroe, and St. Claire along with part of Madison County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Illinois' 12th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 41.9 39.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 56.1 60.4
Difference 14.2 20.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Illinois modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election who cast ballots in the 2018 general election, the 2019 consolidated election, or the 2020 primary election.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The following changes were made to the filing procedures for unaffiliated and new-party candidates: petition signature requirements were reduced to 10 percent of their original numbers; candidates were authorized to collect petition signatures electronically; and the filing deadline was extended to July 20, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Explore Election Results site ad border blue.png

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Incumbent Mike Bost defeated Ray Lenzi in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Bost
Mike Bost (R)
 
60.4
 
194,839
Image of Ray Lenzi
Ray Lenzi (D) Candidate Connection
 
39.6
 
127,577

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 322,416
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Ray Lenzi defeated Joel Funk in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ray Lenzi
Ray Lenzi Candidate Connection
 
50.3
 
27,015
Image of Joel Funk
Joel Funk Candidate Connection
 
49.7
 
26,648

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 53,663
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Incumbent Mike Bost advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Bost
Mike Bost
 
100.0
 
40,222

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 40,222
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Illinois' 12th Congressional District the 192nd most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.17. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.17 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Mike Bost Republican Party $1,948,781 $1,540,312 $413,789 As of December 31, 2020
Ray Lenzi Democratic Party $162,489 $162,712 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 12th Congressional District candidates in Illinois in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Illinois, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Illinois 12th Congressional District Democratic 816 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 12th Congressional District Republican 871 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 12th Congressional District Unaffiliated Pending 10% of original requirement (by court order) N/A N/A 7/20/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Incumbent Mike Bost defeated Brendan Kelly and Randy Auxier in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Bost
Mike Bost (R)
 
51.6
 
134,884
Image of Brendan Kelly
Brendan Kelly (D)
 
45.4
 
118,724
Image of Randy Auxier
Randy Auxier (G)
 
3.0
 
7,935

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 261,543
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Brendan Kelly defeated David Bequette in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Brendan Kelly
Brendan Kelly
 
81.0
 
40,555
Image of David Bequette
David Bequette
 
19.0
 
9,526

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 50,081
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Incumbent Mike Bost defeated Preston Nelson in the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Bost
Mike Bost
 
83.5
 
31,658
Image of Preston Nelson
Preston Nelson
 
16.5
 
6,258

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 37,916
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Green primary election

Green primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12

Randy Auxier advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House Illinois District 12 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Randy Auxier
Randy Auxier
 
100.0
 
131

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 131
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Illinois' 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Bost (R) defeated C.J. Baricevic (D) and Paula Bradshaw (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Bost and Baricevic both ran unopposed in their respective primaries, while Paula Bradshaw defeated Sadona Folkner to win the Green Party nomination.[12][13]

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Bost Incumbent 54.3% 169,976
     Democratic C.J. Baricevic 39.7% 124,246
     Green Paula Bradshaw 6% 18,780
Total Votes 313,002
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections


U.S. House, Illinois District 12 Green Party Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaula Bradshaw 80.1% 117
Sadona Folkner 19.9% 29
Total Votes 146
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Illinois' 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent William Enyart (D) was defeated by Mike Bost (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Bost 52.5% 110,038
     Democratic Bill Enyart Incumbent 41.9% 87,860
     Green Paula Bradshaw 5.6% 11,840
Total Votes 209,738
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections Official Results

2012

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngWilliam Enyart 51.7% 157,000
     Republican Jason Plummer 42.7% 129,902
     Green Paula Bradshaw 5.6% 17,045
Total Votes 303,947
Source: Illinois Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Jerry F. Costello won re-election to the United States House of Representatives. He defeated Teri Newman (R) and Rodger Jennings (G) in the general election.[14]

U.S. House, Illinois District 12 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJerry F. Costello Incumbent 59.8% 121,272
     Republican Teri Newman 36.5% 74,046
     Green Rodger Jennings 3.6% 7,387
Total Votes 202,705

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ June 2011 Illinois Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 23, 2012
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  13. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016
  14. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)


v • e
2019-2020 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona (special) • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia (special) • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming
CongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Illinois%27_12th_Congressional_District_election,_2020&oldid=8519772"