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Illinois' 16th Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Illinois' 16th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 4, 2017
Primary: March 20, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Adam Kinzinger (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+8
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Illinois' 16th Congressional District
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Illinois elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

A Democratic Party primary election took place on March 20, 2018, in Illinois' 16th District to determine which Democrat would run in the district's November 6, 2018, general election.

This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.

See also: United States House elections in Illinois (March 20, 2018 Democratic primaries) and United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
December 4, 2017
March 20, 2018
November 6, 2018

Candidates and election results

Sara Dady defeated Neill Mohammad, Amy Murri Briel, and Beth Vercolio-Osmund in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 16 on March 20, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 16

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Sara Dady
Sara Dady
 
40.3
 
17,173
Image of Neill Mohammad
Neill Mohammad
 
27.2
 
11,599
Image of Amy Murri Briel
Amy Murri Briel
 
19.5
 
8,291
Image of Beth Vercolio-Osmund
Beth Vercolio-Osmund
 
13.0
 
5,526

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 42,589
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[1]
Democratic Party Democrats



Endorsements

Ballotpedia tracks endorsements of candidates by organizations and elected and appointed officials. As of February 16, 2018, we have located the following endorsements in this race. To notify us of other endorsements, please email us.

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorsement Briel Dady Mohammad
Federal officials
Bill Foster, U.S. representative[2] ✔
State figures
Steve Stadelman, Illinois state senator[3] ✔
Local figures
Jessica Muellner, Boone County board member[3] ✔
Michael Kohr, Bureau County board member[4] ✔
Janice Wamhoff, Bureau County coroner[4] ✔
Jim Reed, Bureau County sheriff[4] ✔
Geno Caffarini, Bureau County state's attorney[4] ✔
Misty Haji-Sheikh, DeKalb County board member[3] ✔
Marjorie Askins, DeKalb County board member[5] ✔
Steve Faivre, DeKalb County board member[6] ✔
Mark Pietrowski, DeKalb County board member[7] ✔
Michael Kasap, LaSalle County board member[4] ✔
Denise McCaffrey, Lee County circuit clerk[3] ✔
Bobbie Colbert, Ogle County board member[3] ✔
Cathy Oliveri, Putnum County circuit court clerk[4] ✔
Kevin Kunkel, Putnum County treasurer[4] ✔
Dan Fellars, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Burt Gerl, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Angie Goral, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Joe Hoffman, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Dorothy Redd, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Jaime Salgado, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Dave Tassoni, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
L.C. Wilson, Winnebago County board member[3] ✔
Richard Kopczick, mayor of Morris[4] ✔
Tom McNamara, mayor of Rockford[3] ✔
Karen Hoffman, Rockford alderwoman[3] ✔
Jonathan Logemann, Rockford alderman[3] ✔
Bill Rose, Rockford alderman[3] ✔
Carl Wasco, Rockford Township clerk[3] ✔
James Riley, Village of Gardner commissioner[4] ✔
Valerie Pena-Hernandez, DeKalb District 428 school board member[3] ✔
Organizations
Independent Voters of Illinois Independent Precinct Organization ✔
Livingston County Democratic Central Committee[8] ✔
The Pluralism Project[9] ✔
Will County Progressives[10] ✔
Winnebago Citizens for Choice[11] ✔

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Neill Mohammad

Support
"Healthcare" - Neill Mohammad campaign ad, released October 29, 2017

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Illinois' 16th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Republican Solid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Republican Safe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Illinois' 16th Congressional District the 159th most Republican nationally.[12]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[13]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Illinois heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Illinois General Assembly. They had a 67-51 majority in the state House and a 37-22 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Illinois was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Bruce Rauner (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Illinois elections, 2018

Illinois held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Illinois
 IllinoisU.S.
Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:72.3%73.6%
Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
Asian:5%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,574$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Illinois' three largest cities were Chicago (pop. est. 2.7 million), Aurora (pop. est. 200,000), and Joliet (pop. est. 150,000).[14][15]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Illinois every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.8% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.8% 17.0%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.7% 16.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.8% 25.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.5% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 54.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 42.6% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth 54.9% Republican Party Mark Kirk 39.8% 15.1%
2014 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 53.5% Republican Party Jim Oberweis 42.7% 10.8%
2010 Republican Party Mark Kirk 48.0% Democratic Party Alexander Giannoulias 46.4% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 67.8% Republican Party Steve Sauerberg 28.5% 39.3%
2004 Democratic Party Barack Obama 70.0% Republican Party Alan Keyes 27.0% 43.0%
2002 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 60.3% Republican Party Jim Durkin 38.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Illinois.

Election results (Governor), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bruce Rauner 50.3% Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.3% 4.0%
2010 Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.8% Republican Party Bill Brady 45.9% 0.9%
2006 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 49.8% Republican Party Judy Baar Topinka 39.3% 10.5%
2002 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 52.2% Republican Party Jim Ryan 45.1% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Illinois in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Illinois 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 38.9% Democratic Party 11 61.1% D+4
2014 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2012 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 12 66.7% D+6
2010 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 10 52.6% Democratic Party 9 47.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 10 50.0% Democratic Party 10 50.0% Even

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Illinois Party Control: 1992-2025
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  2. ↑ Neill for Illinois, "BREAKING: Congressional endorsement," August 31, 2017
  3. ↑ 3.00 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 Sara Dady for Congress, "Sara Dady endorsed by mayor of Rockford, 13 local elected officials," January 4, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 Sara Dady for Congress, "Sara Dady picks up endorsements from 9 Illinois Valley elected officials," January 16, 2018
  5. ↑ Facebook, "Neill for Illinois on November 21, 2017," accessed February 16, 2018
  6. ↑ Facebook, "Neill for Illinois on November 28, 2017," accessed February 16, 2018
  7. ↑ Facebook, "Neill for Illinois on November 20, 2017," accessed February 16, 2018
  8. ↑ The Times, "Livingston Dems back Dady," February 14, 2018
  9. ↑ Facebook, "Neill for Illinois on February 16, 2018," accessed February 16, 2018
  10. ↑ Facebook, "Murri Briel for Congress on February 15, 2018," accessed February 16, 2018
  11. ↑ Sara Dady for Congress, "Winnebago Citizens for Choice endorse Sara Dady as strongest candidate on women's issues," December 5, 2017
  12. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  13. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  14. ↑ Illinois Demographics, "Illinois Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  15. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Illinois," accessed December 11, 2017


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)


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