Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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Illinois' 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 2, 2019
Primary: March 17, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Robin Kelly (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Illinois' 2nd Congressional District
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Illinois elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Illinois, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Robin Kelly won election in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 2, 2019
March 17, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Robin Kelly, who was first elected in 2013.

Illinois' 2nd Congressional District encompasses all of Kankakee County along with parts of Cook and Will counties. It includes the south suburbs of Chicago, extending into Will County. It also includes the city's far southeast side.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Illinois' 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 77.5 78.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 21.2 21.2
Difference 56.3 57.6

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Illinois modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election who cast ballots in the 2018 general election, the 2019 consolidated election, or the 2020 primary election.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The following changes were made to the filing procedures for unaffiliated and new-party candidates: petition signature requirements were reduced to 10 percent of their original numbers; candidates were authorized to collect petition signatures electronically; and the filing deadline was extended to July 20, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 2

Incumbent Robin Kelly defeated Theresa Raborn in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Robin Kelly
Robin Kelly (D)
 
78.8
 
234,896
Image of Theresa Raborn
Theresa Raborn (R) Candidate Connection
 
21.2
 
63,142

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 298,038
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2

Incumbent Robin Kelly defeated Marcus Lewis in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Robin Kelly
Robin Kelly
 
84.8
 
94,767
Image of Marcus Lewis
Marcus Lewis
 
15.2
 
16,942

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 111,709
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2

Theresa Raborn advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Theresa Raborn
Theresa Raborn Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
12,181

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 12,181
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[1][2]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+29, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 29 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Illinois' 2nd Congressional District the 27th most Democratic nationally.[3]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[4]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Robin Kelly Democratic Party $1,639,545 $1,112,900 $1,014,413 As of December 31, 2020
Theresa Raborn Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]

Race ratings: Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 2nd Congressional District candidates in Illinois in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Illinois, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Illinois 2nd Congressional District Democratic 1,184 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 2nd Congressional District Republican 336 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 2nd Congressional District Unaffiliated Pending 10% of original requirement (by court order) N/A N/A 7/20/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 2

Incumbent Robin Kelly defeated David Merkle in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Robin Kelly
Robin Kelly (D)
 
80.7
 
183,816
Image of David Merkle
David Merkle (R)
 
19.3
 
43,875

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 227,691
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2

Incumbent Robin Kelly defeated Marcus Lewis in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Robin Kelly
Robin Kelly
 
82.1
 
80,659
Image of Marcus Lewis
Marcus Lewis
 
17.9
 
17,640

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 98,299
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2

David Merkle defeated Patrick Harmon and John Morrow in the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 2 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of David Merkle
David Merkle
 
36.6
 
4,963
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Patrick Harmon
 
35.5
 
4,810
Image of John Morrow
John Morrow
 
27.9
 
3,790

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 13,563
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Illinois' 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Robin Kelly (D) defeated John Morrow (R), the only Republican to file, in the general election on November 8, 2016. Kelly defeated Marcus Lewis, Dorian Myrickes and Charles Rayburn in the Democratic primary on March 15, 2016.[11][12]

U.S. House, Illinois District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRobin Kelly Incumbent 79.8% 235,051
     Republican John Morrow 20.2% 59,471
Total Votes 294,522
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections


U.S. House, Illinois District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngRobin Kelly Incumbent 73.9% 115,752
Marcus Lewis 16.1% 25,280
Charles Rayburn 6.1% 9,559
Dorian Myrickes 3.8% 6,002
Total Votes 156,593
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Illinois' 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Robin Kelly (D) defeated Eric Wallace (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Illinois District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRobin Kelly Incumbent 78.5% 160,337
     Republican Eric Wallace 21.4% 43,799
     Independent Marcus Lewis (Write-in) 0.1% 130
Total Votes 204,266
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  3. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  4. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  5. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  7. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  11. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  12. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)


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