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Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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Illinois' 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 2, 2019
Primary: March 17, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Daniel Lipinski (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Illinois' 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th
Illinois elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Illinois, held elections in 2020.

Marie Newman won election in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 2, 2019
March 17, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Daniel Lipinski, who was first elected in 2004.

Illinois' 3rd Congressional District includes western and southwestern suburbs of Chicago as well as a portion of the southwest side of the city of Chicago itself. Parts of Cook, DuPage and Will counties lie within the district.[1]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Illinois' 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 55.5 56.4
Republican candidate Republican Party 42.9 43.6
Difference 12.6 12.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Illinois modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election who cast ballots in the 2018 general election, the 2019 consolidated election, or the 2020 primary election.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The following changes were made to the filing procedures for unaffiliated and new-party candidates: petition signature requirements were reduced to 10 percent of their original numbers; candidates were authorized to collect petition signatures electronically; and the filing deadline was extended to July 20, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 3

Marie Newman defeated Mike Fricilone in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marie Newman
Marie Newman (D) Candidate Connection
 
56.4
 
172,997
Image of Mike Fricilone
Mike Fricilone (R)
 
43.6
 
133,851

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 306,848
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3

Marie Newman defeated incumbent Daniel Lipinski, Rush Darwish, and Charles Hughes in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Marie Newman
Marie Newman Candidate Connection
 
47.3
 
52,384
Image of Daniel Lipinski
Daniel Lipinski
 
44.7
 
49,568
Image of Rush Darwish
Rush Darwish Candidate Connection
 
5.7
 
6,351
Image of Charles Hughes
Charles Hughes
 
2.3
 
2,549

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 110,852
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3

Mike Fricilone defeated Catherine A. O'Shea and Arthur Jones in the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3 on March 17, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mike Fricilone
Mike Fricilone
 
57.5
 
9,804
Image of Catherine A. O'Shea
Catherine A. O'Shea
 
32.5
 
5,541
Image of Arthur Jones
Arthur Jones
 
10.0
 
1,708
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
2

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 17,055
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Illinois' 3rd Congressional District the 156th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.00. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.00 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[5] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Marie Newman Democratic Party $2,835,512 $2,732,742 $102,841 As of December 31, 2020
Mike Fricilone Republican Party $128,458 $127,980 $478 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Illinois in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Illinois, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Illinois 3rd Congressional District Democratic 786 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 3rd Congressional District Republican 603 0.5% of qualified party primary voters in the district N/A N/A 12/2/2019 Source
Illinois 3rd Congressional District Unaffiliated Pending 10% of original requirement (by court order) N/A N/A 7/20/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Illinois District 3

Incumbent Daniel Lipinski defeated Arthur Jones in the general election for U.S. House Illinois District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Daniel Lipinski
Daniel Lipinski (D)
 
73.0
 
163,053
Image of Arthur Jones
Arthur Jones (R)
 
25.9
 
57,885
 Other/Write-in votes
 
1.1
 
2,396

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 223,334
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3

Incumbent Daniel Lipinski defeated Marie Newman in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Daniel Lipinski
Daniel Lipinski
 
51.1
 
48,675
Image of Marie Newman
Marie Newman
 
48.9
 
46,530

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 95,205
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3

Arthur Jones advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Illinois District 3 on March 20, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Arthur Jones
Arthur Jones
 
100.0
 
20,681

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 20,681
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Daniel Lipinski (D) was unopposed in the general election on November 8, 2016, as the only Republican to file, Arthur Jones, was removed from the ballot prior to the primary. Lipinski also faced no opposition in the Democratic primary on March 15, 2016.[10][11]

U.S. House, Illinois District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDaniel Lipinski Incumbent 100% 225,320
     N/A Write-in 0% 91
Total Votes 225,411
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Daniel Lipinski (D) defeated Sharon Brannigan (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Illinois District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDan Lipinski Incumbent 64.6% 116,764
     Republican Sharon Brannigan 35.4% 64,091
Total Votes 180,855
Source: Illinois State Board of Elections Official Results

2012

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District elections, 2012

The 3rd Congressional District of Illinois held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Daniel Lipinski won re-election in the district.[12]

U.S. House, Illinois District 3 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDaniel Lipinski Incumbent 68.5% 168,738
     Republican Richard Grabowski 31.5% 77,653
Total Votes 246,391
Source: Illinois Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Daniel Lipinski won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Michael A. Bendas (R) and Laurel Lambert Schmidt (G) in the general election.[13]

U.S. House, Illinois District 3 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDaniel Lipinski incumbent 69.7% 116,120
     Republican Michael A. Bendas 24.3% 40,479
     Green Laurel Lambert Schmidt 6% 10,028
Total Votes 166,627

Endorsements

Democratic primary election

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in the Democratic Party primary election. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Alexander County, Illinois 8.30% 13.65% 12.62%
Carroll County, Illinois 26.69% 1.49% 4.81%
Fulton County, Illinois 14.93% 11.04% 21.33%
Henderson County, Illinois 28.43% 12.25% 17.67%
Henry County, Illinois 20.99% 3.08% 7.74%
Jo Daviess County, Illinois 14.64% 1.16% 10.49%
Knox County, Illinois 2.91% 17.37% 19.89%
Mercer County, Illinois 20.36% 7.39% 11.91%
Putnam County, Illinois 19.92% 1.82% 15.64%
Warren County, Illinois 16.50% 5.47% 8.08%
Whiteside County, Illinois 6.18% 17.02% 17.56%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[16][17]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 75 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 39.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 76 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. Clinton won 13 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 43 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 15 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 42 out of 118 state House districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 22.1 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  5. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  6. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  7. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  10. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List," accessed November 30, 2015
  11. ↑ The New York Times, "Illinois Primary Results," March 15, 2016
  12. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Illinois"
  13. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  14. ↑ Politico, "Newman gets early backing for rematch with Lipinski," accessed May 12, 2019
  15. ↑ Politico, "Ocasio-Cortez backs liberal challenger to one of the most conservative House Democrats," accessed September 19, 2019
  16. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  17. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017


Illinois' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Tammy Duckworth (D)
Dick Durbin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)


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