Everything you need to know about ranked-choice voting in one spot. Click to learn more!

Illinois' 4th Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2020
2016
Illinois' 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 4, 2017
Primary: March 20, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Luis Gutierrez (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Illinois
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+33
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Illinois' 4th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th
Illinois elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Cook County Commissioner and former Chicago mayoral candidate Jesus "Chuy" Garcia won the Democratic primary in Illinois' 4th Congressional District on March 20, 2018.[1]

District 4 Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D), who announced his retirement on November 28, 2017, endorsed Garcia in the race to succeed him.[2] Garcia also picked up endorsements from U.S. Sen. and 2016 presidential candidate Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the Chicago Sun-Times, and progressive groups such as Democracy for America and the Sanders-affiliated Our Revolution.

Garcia faced two other candidates—housing nonprofit founder Sol Flores and police officer Richard Gonzalez—in the March 20 Democratic primary. Flores earned national attention in February 2018 for a campaign ad that referenced her experience with childhood sexual abuse.[3] She had the backing of the Chicago Tribune, EMILY's List, and U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) Off the Sidelines PAC in the Democratic primary.

This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the general election, click here. This seat was rated Safe Democratic by three outlets as of March 8, 2018.[4]

Illinois voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionMarch 20, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineDecember 4, 2017
Registration deadlineFebruary 20 (in-person) & March 4 (online), 2018
Absentee application deadlineMarch 15 (by mail) & March 19 (in-person), 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Early voting deadlineMarch 20, 2018
Polling locations: Polls were open from 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:



Candidates and election results

Jesus Garcia defeated Sol Flores and Richard Gonzalez in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 4 on March 20, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Illinois District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jesus Garcia
Jesus Garcia
 
66.2
 
49,631
Image of Sol Flores
Sol Flores
 
21.9
 
16,398
Image of Richard Gonzalez
Richard Gonzalez
 
11.9
 
8,921

Total votes: 74,950
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Election updates

Debates

Endorsements

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
  • January 18-21, 2018: Garin-Hart-Yang released a poll conducted for the Garcia campaign that showed Chuy Garcia leading Joe Moreno and Sol Flores 59 percent to 8 percent to 6 percent.
  • December 13-14, 2017: Public Policy Polling released a poll that showed Garcia leading the field with 53 percent support. His opponents each received single-digit support, including Chicago Alderman Carlos Rosa, who had 7 percent of the vote.[8]

Top candidates

The candidates below have been identified by Ballotpedia as the top candidates in the race based on funds raised, endorsements, and polling.

Democratic Party Sol Flores (D)

Sol Flores.png

Flores is the founder of La Casa Norte: an organization that provides housing and services to homeless families, single parents, victims of domestic violence, and abandoned youth. She has served on the board of directors at the Latino Policy Forum, The Chicago Low Income Housing Trust Fund, Hispanic Housing Development Corporation, and Kuumba Lynx. She has also served as an appointed member of the City of Chicago Zoning Board of Appeals.[9]

Flores received an endorsement from EMILY's List on December 21, 2017. She has based her campaign on her childhood experience being raised by a single mother as part of a larger Puerto Rican immigrant family. According to her campaign website, she "was taught that 'Where one can eat, 10 can eat,' and that you should always invite people to your table and always be generous." Flores stated that this experience has been influential in her bid for Congress.[10]

Democratic Party Jesus Garcia (D)

Chuy Garcia.jpeg

Prior to running for Congress, Jesus "Chuy" Garcia served as a commissioner for Cook County, where he was first elected in 2010. In 2015, he challenged Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) in his re-election bid. Garcia made it to a run-off against Emanuel, where he was defeated by about 12 points. Garcia served in the Illinois State Senate from 1993 to 1999 and as a Chicago alderman from 1986 to 1992.

The Huffington Post identified Garcia as a progressive Democrat with more liberal policy positions than Luis Gutierrez, a supporter of Rahm Emanuel and Hillary Clinton (D). Despite this, Gutierrez endorsed Garcia when he announced his retirement. Garcia also had the backing of national progressive leader U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Sanders first endorsed Garcia in his 2015 run against Mayor Emanuel and Garcia endorsed Sanders in his 2016 presidential run against Clinton. Sanders endorsed Garcia's congressional bid shortly after he announced he was running in November 2017.[11]

List of all candidates

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Political analysis of election outcome

After the election, party leaders and journalists assessed the causes and consequences of Garcia's primary win. A common topic was Garcia's ascendence as a leader in state politics.

Garcia's ascendence in state politics

Nick Blumberg, WTTW

"Tuesday’s primary election could have a lasting impact on the state’s two major political parties.

Joe Berrios, one of the last of the old-school machine Democrats, will soon be out of his job as Cook County assessor. Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia not only got elected to Congress, but scored other victories with the coalition of young progressives he’s helped lead...

On the Democratic side, Chuy Garcia had a good night. Not only did he get elected in his Congressional primary to succeed U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez and see progressive Fritz Kaegi topple Berrios, his chosen successor won her primary for Garcia’s seat on the county board. And state lawmaker Dan Burke, brother of powerful Ald. Ed Burke, was defeated by young progressive Aaron Ortiz."[12]

Bill Ruthhart and Joe Mahr, Chicago Tribune

"The night symbolized the arrival of Garcia’s expanded influence on the Chicago political stage.

Garcia declared victory for his slate of three candidates — 28-year-old Alma Anaya to succeed him on the County Board, 37-year-old Beatriz Frausto-Sandoval for circuit judge and 26-year-old Aaron Ortiz for state representative. An Ortiz victory over state Rep. Dan Burke would hold the largest significance as it would mark a substantial blow to the Burke family’s 65-year political dynasty in the 14th Ward.

A jubilant Garcia took to the stage with a broom in hand to symbolize his slate’s sweep."[13]

Carol Marin and Don Moseley, NBC 5 Chicago

"But for political junkies, there may be an even bigger story than the gubernatorial race. Call it the winds of change, led by Hispanics like Cook County Commissioner Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia and progressives including the Bernie Sanders Our Revolution.

Better yet, call it a political earthquake.

Out is Joe Berrios as Cook County Assessor. As head of the Cook County Democratic Party, Berrios could not rally his troops to defeat newcomer Fritz Kaegi.

Berrios won just 23 of Chicago’s 50 wards.

And speaking of Chicago wards, the other earthquake: Chicago’s most powerful alderman, Ed Burke, just barely delivered his 14th Ward for his brother Dan, who ultimately lost re-election to the statehouse. Just 62 votes separated Dan Burke and 26-year-old Aaron Ortiz in his brother's 14th Ward. Ortiz had the strong support of Chuy Garcia and won, as Garcia did in his bid for Congress."[14]

Timeline

The timeline below summarizes the most recent noteworthy events in this election. For the complete list, please visit: Timeline of Illinois' 4th Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary).

Endorsements

Know of any endorsements? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Democratic candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Flores Garcia
Federal officials
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)[15] November 30, 2017
U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.)[16] November 28, 2017
Local figures
Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa[17] January 9, 2018
Publications
Chicago Sun-Times[18] February 13, 2018
Chicago Tribune[6] February 19, 2018
Organizations
BOLD PAC[19] February 27, 2018
American Federation of Government Employees[20] February 23, 2018
Latino Victory Fund[21] February 8, 2018
Our Revolution[21] February 8, 2018
Off the Sidelines PAC[7] February 5, 2018
Our Revolution Illinois[22] January 22, 2018
Democracy for America[23] January 17, 2018
EMILY's List[24] December 21, 2017


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, Democratic primary
Poll Garcia MorenoFloresOtherUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Garin-Hart-Yang for the Garcia campaign
January 18-21, 2018
59%8%6%8%19%+/-5.0400
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, Democratic primary
Poll Flores GarciaGonzalezMorenoLopezRamirez-RosaNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
December 13-14, 2017
3%53%4%4%2%7%27%+/-4.8412
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Debates and forums

Sol Flores, Chuy Garcia, and Richard Gonzalez participated in a Democratic primary candidate forum hosted by the Indivisible West Suburban Action League on February 15, 2018. The forum included discussion of labor issues, firearms policy, and suburban representation. Click here for coverage of this forum.[5]


Campaign tactics and strategies

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Sol Flores

Support
"Sol Flores for Congress" - Sol Flores campaign ad, released February 2, 2018
"That Door" - Sol Flores campaign ad, released February 12, 2018
"Something I Could Do" - Sol Flores campaign ad, released February 12, 2018


Democratic Party Chuy Garcia

Support
"Chuy 'Jesus' Garcia for Congress 2018 - 30 sec" - Chuy Garcia campaign ad, released February 28, 2018
"Chuy 'Jesus' Garcia for Congress 2018 - 15 sec" - Chuy Garcia campaign ad, released February 28, 2018


Online presence

The following social media statistics were compiled on January 24, 2018.

Facebook Twitter
Candidate Followers Likes Comments on Last Post Followers Following Tweets
Democratic Party Garcia 28,101 28,094 1 10,700 702 1,529
Democratic Party Flores 1,320 1,253 4 1,077 418 507


Noteworthy events

Gutierrez retirement

U.S. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D) announced his retirement and endorsement of Chuy Garcia six days before the December 4 filing deadline. The Huffington Post suggested that he may have announced his retirement on short notice to limit the number of candidates who could enter the Democratic primary.[11]

The Huffington Post also noted that Gutierrez may have endorsed Garcia to ensure that he would not run against Chicago Mayor and Gutierrez ally Rahm Emanuel (D) in the 2019 Chicago mayoral race. Garcia challenged Emanuel in the 2015 Chicago mayoral race. According to Micah Uetricht, associate editor of the left-leaning magazine Jacobin, "Anyone who thinks more than 5 seconds about how this whole deal went down can’t help but realize things smell a little fishy."[11]

Garcia told the Huffington Post that Gutierrez had told him that he was going to resign and that he would not have done so unless Garcia ran to replace him. He said, "With respect to the process, there is no quid pro quo. There are no pre-conditions for it. It’s not nepotism because it is not a relative handing something down to another relative."[11]

Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, who subsequently withdrew from the race, said of the Garcia endorsement, "If I were the retiring congressman, it’s not how I would have handled it. As the Democratic Party, we’ve learned that we benefit when we have open and contested primaries."[11]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Illinois' 4th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly January 2018 reports. It includes only candidates who have reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of December 31, 2017.[25]
Democratic Party Democrats



District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+33, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 33 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Illinois' 4th Congressional District the 19th most Democratic nationally.[26]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[27]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Illinois heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Illinois General Assembly. They had a 67-51 majority in the state House and a 37-22 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Illinois was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Bruce Rauner (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Illinois elections, 2018

Illinois held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Illinois
 IllinoisU.S.
Total population:12,839,047316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,5193,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:72.3%73.6%
Black/African American:14.3%12.6%
Asian:5%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:16.5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:87.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,574$53,889
Persons below poverty level:16.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Illinois.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Illinois' three largest cities were Chicago (pop. est. 2.7 million), Aurora (pop. est. 200,000), and Joliet (pop. est. 150,000).[28][29]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Illinois every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.8% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.8% 17.0%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.7% 16.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.9% Republican Party John McCain 36.8% 25.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.5% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 54.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 42.6% 12.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Illinois from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth 54.9% Republican Party Mark Kirk 39.8% 15.1%
2014 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 53.5% Republican Party Jim Oberweis 42.7% 10.8%
2010 Republican Party Mark Kirk 48.0% Democratic Party Alexander Giannoulias 46.4% 1.6%
2008 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 67.8% Republican Party Steve Sauerberg 28.5% 39.3%
2004 Democratic Party Barack Obama 70.0% Republican Party Alan Keyes 27.0% 43.0%
2002 Democratic Party Dick Durbin 60.3% Republican Party Jim Durkin 38.0% 22.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Illinois.

Election results (Governor), Illinois 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Bruce Rauner 50.3% Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.3% 4.0%
2010 Democratic Party Pat Quinn 46.8% Republican Party Bill Brady 45.9% 0.9%
2006 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 49.8% Republican Party Judy Baar Topinka 39.3% 10.5%
2002 Democratic Party Rod Blagojevich 52.2% Republican Party Jim Ryan 45.1% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Illinois in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Illinois 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 7 38.9% Democratic Party 11 61.1% D+4
2014 Republican Party 8 44.4% Democratic Party 10 55.6% D+2
2012 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 12 66.7% D+6
2010 Republican Party 11 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 36.8% Democratic Party 12 63.2% D+5
2006 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2004 Republican Party 9 47.4% Democratic Party 10 52.6% D+1
2002 Republican Party 10 52.6% Democratic Party 9 47.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 10 50.0% Democratic Party 10 50.0% Even

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Illinois Party Control: 1992-2025
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

External links

Jesus Garcia

Carlos Rosa

Footnotes

  1. WGN, "'Chuy' Garcia, Lorch win primary race for 4th District US representative," March 20, 2018
  2. CBS News, "Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez will not seek re-election after 13 terms in House," November 28, 2017
  3. The Huffington Post, "Congressional candidate recounts childhood abuse in powerful campaign ad," February 13, 2018
  4. Ratings are based on projections found in Governing, Larry Sabato, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, and The Cook Political Report. These ratings are updated periodically throughout the election season.
  5. 5.0 5.1 My Suburban Life, "4th Congressional District candidates tackle gun violence, unemployment at forum," February 23, 2018
  6. 6.0 6.1 Chicago Tribune, "Editorial: More endorsements for the U.S. House," February 19, 2018
  7. 7.0 7.1 Politico Illinois Playbook, "UNPACKING latest BLAGO-PRITZKER tape — IVES defends AD — Did GOP ‘drop the ball’ on NAZI candidate?," February 6, 2018
  8. Politico, "CHUY Garcia leads by double-digits - BGA rips RAHM's claim of Kennedy-King success - Possible RAHM challenger GARRY McCARTHY tries to distance himself from TRUMP," December 18, 2017
  9. La Casa Norte, "Leadership," accessed January 16, 2018
  10. Sol Flores 2018 campaign website, "Meet Sol Flores," accessed January 16, 2018
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named HuffPost
  12. WTTW, "2018 primary results: Analyzing political power shifts," March 21, 2018
  13. Chicago Tribune, "Jubilant 'Chuy' Garcia cruises to victory in race to succeed Gutierrez," March 21, 2018
  14. NBC 5 Chicago, "Winners and losers in Illinois' primary election," March 21, 2018
  15. WGN TV, "Bernie Sanders endorses Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia for Congress," November 30, 2017
  16. CBS Garcia, "Rep. Luis Gutierrez Not Running Again, Endorses “Chuy” Garcia," November 28, 2017
  17. Chicago Tribune, "Chuy Garcia gets progressive endorsement," January 9, 2018
  18. Chicago Sun-Times, "Endorsement: Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia for Congress in 4th District Democratic primary," February 13, 2018
  19. BOLD PAC, "Jesus "Chuy" Garcia," February 27, 2018
  20. American Federation of Government Employees, "AFGE endorses Illinois' Chuy Garcia for Congress," February 23, 2018
  21. 21.0 21.1 Our Revolution, "Our Revolution and Latino Victory Fund endorse Chuy Garcia for Congress," February 8, 2018
  22. Our Revolution Illinois, "Jesus "Chuy" Garcia for U.S. House of Representatives—4th District," accessed January 23, 2018
  23. Democracy for America, "Democracy for America endorses Chuy Garcia in Illinois race for U.S. Congress," January 17, 2018
  24. Emily's List, "Sol Flores," accessed December 21, 2017
  25. FEC, "Federal Election Commission", accessed February 13, 2018
  26. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  27. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  28. Illinois Demographics, "Illinois Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  29. U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Illinois," accessed December 11, 2017


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Mike Bost (R)
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
Democratic Party (16)
Republican Party (3)