Illinois primary 2014 state executive officials preview
March 18, 2014
| March 18, 2014 Election Preview |
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By Maresa Strano
Springfield, IL: The 2014 Illinois primary elections are being held on March 18, 2014. There are six state executive seats: governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, state treasurer and state comptroller. Incumbents are seeking election in four of the six races, and all will face at least one challenger in the general election. The two incumbents not running for re-election to their current posts are Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon (D), who is running for state comptroller, and State Treasurer Dan Rutherford (R), who is campaigning for governor. Rutherford is part of a crowded field of Republican hopefuls looking to unseat embattled Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn.
With governor and lieutenant governor running on a single ticket, that left ten potential contested fields. In the end, only three - both major party gubernatorial primaries and the GOP primary race for state treasurer - managed to draw enough candidates. Candidates in these three contested primaries have been sweating on the campaign trail in preparation for tomorrow's elections, while the remaining candidates rested easy knowing they would automatically advance to the November ballot.
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Democratic Primary - Governor
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Republican Primary - Governor |
Republican Primary - Treasurer |
Below, Ballotpedia has put together a preview of these races. Key players and background information have been compiled, as well as a look at the current polling data. Thoughts on the outcome of the race have also been included for races.
Illinois Governor
Both Republicans and Democrats have contested primaries for Illinois Governor. There are four Gov./Lt. Gov. candidate teams vying for the Republican nomination. Millionaire businessman Bruce Rauner, in his first ever attempt at elected office, has maintained a solid lead in the polls over fellow duly qualified contenders, current state treasurer Dan Rutherford, and Illinois Senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard. This is Brady's third gubernatorial bid (his second, in 2010, came just short) and Dillard has become a favorite in public sector union circles for voting against a bill unions believed would hurt retiree benefits. Both senators were established names before the campaign season went underway, whereas Rauner rose from political obscurity to frontrunner status in mere months.[1][2][3]
On the Democratic side, there are only two tickets competing for the nomination: Incumbent Pat Quinn and his new running mate Paul Vallas, the former Chicago Public Schools chief tapped to fill the void left by outgoing Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon's defection to run for state comptroller this year, face a token challenge from relative unknown Tio Hardiman and his running mate Brunell Donald.
Ballotpedia predicts that the Rauner/Sanguinetti and Quinn/Vallas tickets will win their primaries.
Republican Primary Polls
General election
All candidates
| Governor of Illinois: All candidates | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Pat Quinn* (D) | Bruce Rauner (R) | Chad Grimm (L) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| We Ask America October 27-28, 2014 | 49.5% | 44.8% | 5.6% | 0% | +/-3 | 2,327 | |||||||||||||
| Southern Illinois University September 23-October 15, 2014 | 40.7% | 42.4% | 3% | 13.9% | +/-3.7 | 691 | |||||||||||||
| Early & Often/We Ask America October 8, 2014 | 44.48% | 41.03% | 6.95% | 7.53% | +/-3 | 1,051 | |||||||||||||
| We Ask America/Reboot Illinois October 6, 2014 | 43.6% | 39.6% | 5.9% | 10.9% | +/-3 | 1,097 | |||||||||||||
| The Chicago Tribune/APC Research, Inc. September 3-12, 2014 | 48% | 37% | 5% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 800 | |||||||||||||
| Global Strategy Group (D-DGA) September 4-7, 2014 | 43% | 40% | 5% | 12% | +/-4 | 605 | |||||||||||||
| We Ask America/Reboot Illinois September 2, 2014 | 37% | 46% | 7% | 10% | +/-3 | 1,064 | |||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 43.75% | 41.55% | 5.49% | 8.9% | +/-3.31 | 1,090.71 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
**Incumbency is denoted by asterisk (*)
Quinn vs. Rauner
| Governor of Illinois: Pat Quinn vs. Bruce Rauner | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Poll | Pat Quinn* (D) | Bruce Rauner (R) | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
| New York Times/CBS News/YouGov October 16-23, 2014 | 45% | 41% | 14% | +/-3 | 3,519 | ||||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports October 20-22, 2014 | 47% | 48% | 6% | +/-3 | 1,000 | ||||||||||||||
| New York Times/CBS News/YouGov September 20-October 1, 2014 | 46% | 43% | 11% | +/-2 | 3,955 | ||||||||||||||
| New York Times/CBS/YouGov August 18-September 2, 2014 | 40% | 44% | 13% | +/-3.0 | 4,363 | ||||||||||||||
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D) August 12-14, 2014 | 43% | 46% | 11% | +/-3.5 | 802 | ||||||||||||||
| We Ask America/Chicago Sun Times August 6, 2014 | 38% | 51% | 11% | +/-3.12 | 1,085 | ||||||||||||||
| Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) August 4-5, 2014 | 40% | 48% | 12% | +/-4.0 | 567 | ||||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports July 29-30, 2014 | 39% | 44% | 10% | +/-4.0 | 750 | ||||||||||||||
| We Ask America/Capitol Fax July 8, 2014 | 39% | 51% | 10% | +/-3.2 | 940 | ||||||||||||||
| We Ask America/Reboot Illinois June 10-11, 2014 | 37% | 47% | 16% | +/-3.0 | 1,075 | ||||||||||||||
| Rasmussen Reports April 9-10, 2014 | 40% | 43% | 10% | +/-4.0 | 750 | ||||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 41.27% | 46% | 11.27% | +/-3.26 | 1,709.64 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
**Incumbency is denoted by asterisk (*)
Republican Primary
| Illinois Governor - 2014 Republican Primary | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Poll | Bill Brady | Kirk Dillard | Bruce Rauner | Dan Rutherford | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||
| WeAskAmerica March 16, 2014 | 19.35% | 27.36% | 44.24% | 9.04% | 0% | +/-3.0 | 1,126 | ||||||||||||
| WeAskAmerica March 11, 2014 | 18.9% | 25.76% | 46.46% | 8.88% | 0% | +/-2.9 | 1,235 | ||||||||||||
| WeAskAmerica March 4, 2014 | 11.65% | 14.45% | 39.88% | 8.20% | 25.82% | +/-2.85 | 1,262 | ||||||||||||
| Chicago Tribune/WGN March 1-5, 2014 | 18% | 23% | 36% | 9% | 13% | +/-4 | 600 | ||||||||||||
| WeAskAmerica February 25, 2014 | 12.8% | 17.25% | 35.6% | 7.48% | 26.88% | +/-3 | 1,178 | ||||||||||||
| Chicago Tribune/WGN February 2-8, 2014 | 20% | 11% | 40% | 13% | 15% | +/-4 | 600 | ||||||||||||
| WeAskAmerica November 26, 2013 | 18% | 10% | 26% | 17% | 29% | +/-2.8 | 1,233 | ||||||||||||
| Capitol Fax/We AskAmericaPoll June 20, 2013 | 18% | 11% | 12% | 22% | 38% | +/-2.8 | 1,310 | ||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 17.09% | 17.48% | 35.02% | 11.83% | 18.46% | +/-3.17 | 1,068 | ||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
**Due to the nature of the comparison, a placeholder figure of 0% is assigned to candidates not included in any given match-up round
Illinois Treasurer
State Rep. Tom Cross and DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogan are squaring off for the GOP nomination tomorrow in pursuit of the state treasurer's office, which is open this year thanks to incumbent Dan Rutherford's gubernatorial run. Both candidates support a merger that would eliminate the treasurer's office, making neither very popular with the press. Cross, being a two decade veteran of the state legislature and long time minority leader, has greater name recognition, but is initial consideration of an attorney general bid in 2014 has opened him up to speculation about whether his ambition might conflict with the demands of the job, if elected.[4][5] Ballotpedia predicts this race will go to Cross.
| Illinois Treasurer - Republican Primary 2014 | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Bob Grogan | Tom Cross | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
| Battleground Polling (November 11, 2013) | 13% | 27% | 60% | +/-3.97 | 535 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
See also
- Illinois state executive elections (overview):
External links
Footnotes
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- ↑ Real Clear Politics, "Illinois Governor - Republican Primary Polls," accessed March 17, 2014
- ↑ [http://paulsimoninstitute.org/images/PDF/spring2014/poll-releases/psppi-simon-poll-release-3-3-14.pdf Southern Illinois University Poll, "Simon Poll: Rauner Leads Primary Field; No Clear Favorite Against Gov. Quinn," March 3, 2014] (dead link)
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Governor race tightening," March 9, 2014
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "For the GOP: Tom Cross," March 7, 2014
- ↑ Journal Star, "Our View: State treasurer: Grogan," March 11, 2014
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