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Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2016

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2016 State
Legislative Elections
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  Impact of term limits
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2016 Elections
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Thirteen state senate chambers and thirteen state house chambers, which held general elections on November 8, 2016, included some state legislators who were unable to run for re-election in 2016 because of their state's legislative term limits.

  • A total of 67 state senators were termed out in 2016. This represents 20.2% of the 331 total state senate seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state senates with elections in November 2016.
  • A total of 186 state representatives were termed out. This represents 14.8% of the 1,261 total seats up for election in the 13 term-limited state house with elections in November 2016.

Altogether, 253 current state legislators were forced to leave office after the elections because of term limits.

See also: State legislative elections, 2016

State senators

There were 43 state senates that held general elections in November 2016. In 13 of these states, state senators were subject to term limits. Louisiana is the only state with state Senate term limits that did not have a general election in 2016. Michigan did not hold state Senate elections in 2016.

A total of 67 current state senators were ineligible to run for re-election in 2016 because of term limit laws in their state. This included:

  • 29 incumbent Democratic state senators
  • 26 incumbent Republican state senators
  • 12 nonpartisan state senators

Going into the 2016 elections, the Democratic Party was the majority party in one of the 14 state senates with term limits. The Republican Party was the majority in 12 of the 14 state senates with term limits. Nebraska's state Senate is term-limited and officially nonpartisan.

  • In five states, more Democrats were term limited than Republicans. In California, the majority party was Democratic. In Colorado, Maine, Montana and Ohio, the majority party was Republican.
  • In five states, more Republicans were term limited than Democrats. In Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma and South Dakota, the majority party was Republican.
  • There were no Arkansas or Nevada senators affected by term limits in 2016.
  • Michigan, which has Republican majorities in both chambers, did not hold state Senate elections in 2016. Louisiana, which elects its legislators every four years in odd years, also did not hold state Senate elections.
2014
Term Limits
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Impact of Term Limits by Year
20102011201220142016
State senates
ArizonaArkansasCalifornia
ColoradoFloridaMaine
MichiganMissouriMontana
NebraskaNevadaOhio
OklahomaSouth Dakota
State houses
ArizonaArkansasCalifornia
ColoradoFloridaMaine
MichiganMissouriMontana
NevadaOhio
OklahomaSouth Dakota
State legislatures with term limits
Term limits on the ballot

State representatives

There were 43 state houses that held general elections in November 2016. In 13 of these states, state house terms were subject to term limits. There are 15 states with state legislative term limits, but Louisiana did not hold a state House election in 2016 and Nebraska does not have a state house.

186 current state representatives were ineligible to run for re-election in 2016 because of term limit laws in their state. This included:

  • 84 incumbent Democratic state representatives
  • 102 incumbent Republican state representatives

Going into the 2016 elections, the Democratic Party was the majority party in three of the 13 state houses with term limits. The Republican Party held the majority in 10 of the 13 state houses with term limits.

  • In three states, more Democrats were term limited than Republicans. In California, Colorado and Maine, the majority party was Democratic.
  • In eight states, more Republicans were term limited than Democrats. In Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota, the majority party was Republican.
  • There were no Arkansas representatives affected by term limits.
  • Louisiana, which elects its legislators every four years in odd years, did not hold state House elections in 2016.

Breakdowns

Republican representatives took a larger hit from term limits in the 2016 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party lost (128, versus 113 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers lost more Republicans (13, versus 9 for Democrats).

Incumbents

The following table details the number of state legislators unable to run for re-election due to term limits broken down by party and chamber.

Party # of termed senators # of termed representatives Total
Democratic 29 84 113
Republican 26 102 128
Nonpartisan 12 0 12

Chambers

The following table details the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits.

Party Senates with most losses Houses with most losses Total
Democratic 5 4 9
Republican 5 8 13
Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) 3 1 4

Comparison to 2014

In 2014, a total of 223 seats were termed out in state senates and state houses combined. This was 14 percent of the 1,592 state legislative seats up for election in the states with term limits in the 2014 elections, and 3.7 percent of the 6,047 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in 2014, including the non-term-limited states.

Incumbents

Party # of termed senators # of termed representatives Total
Democratic 22 73 95
Republican 24 87 113
Nonpartisan 17 0 17

Chambers

The following table details the number of chambers where one party lost more incumbents due to term limits.

Party Senates with most losses Houses with most losses Total
Democratic 6 4 10
Republican 5 9 14
Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) 2 0 2

Comparison to 2012

In 2012, the last election cycle in which the same seats were up for election as 2016, Republicans had a marginal disadvantage in terms of the number incumbents lost to term limits as well as the number of chambers in which each party saw more members lost to term limits. However, Democrats lost one more state representative than Republicans did during this cycle.

Incumbents

Party # of termed senators # of termed representatives Total
Democratic 33 82 115
Republican 38 85 123
Nonpartisan 0 0 0

Chambers

Party Senates with most losses Houses with most losses Total
Democratic 4 6 10
Republican 5 7 12
Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) 4 0 4

See also