Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2018
| State legislative term limits analysis | |
|---|---|
2019 »
« 2016
| |
 |
| Impact of term limits by year |
| 2018・2016・ 2014 2012・2011・2010 |
| State senates |
| Arizona・Arkansas・California Colorado・Florida・Maine Michigan・Missouri・Montana Nebraska・Nevada・Ohio Oklahoma・South Dakota |
| State houses |
| Arizona・Arkansas・California Colorado・ Florida・Maine Michigan・Missouri・Montana Nevada・Ohio Oklahoma・South Dakota |
| State legislatures with term limits |
| Term limits on the ballot |
| 2018 state legislative elections |
Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 12 house chambers included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[1] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[2] There are 99 chambers throughout the country. Louisiana was the only state with term limits that did not have a general election in 2018. Nebraska does not have a state house. The Arkansas House was up for election in 2018 and has term limits, but no Arkansas representatives were impacted by term limits in 2018.
In 29 legislative chambers across 15 states, state legislators are subject to term limits. In the United States, there are 1,972 state senate seats and 5,411 state house seats. Of the 1,972 senate seats, 562 seats (29 percent) are subject to term limits. Of the 5,411 house seats, 1,368 seats (25 percent) are subject to term limits.
Term-limited representatives by state
The map below displays the 15 states that use term limits for state legislators. All 15 states held elections in 2018 except Louisiana. Louisiana holds elections every four years in odd-numbered years. Click on a state below to see the total number of termed-out state representatives in 2018 as well as a breakdown of the totals for each legislative chamber.
State houses with the biggest term limit impacts
- Missouri had the highest percentage of state representatives term limited in 2018. Of the 163 seats up for election, 44 Missouri representatives—or 27 percent of the chamber—were term limited in 2018.
State houses with the smallest term limit impacts
- The Arkansas House of Representatives had zero state representatives term limited in 2018. The second-lowest amount of term-limited representatives was in California. The California State Assembly had only one state representative term limited out of the 80 seats up for election in 2018.
Differential impact on parties
Term limits can often have an impact on the competitiveness of a state legislative election because term limits create open seats. Open seats are believed to be more electorally competitive than seats in which an incumbent is running for re-election because incumbents tend to win re-election. A 2015 study by Ballotpedia found that in state legislative elections between 1972 and 2014, the incumbency win rate never fell below 90 percent with the exception of 1974 when 88 percent of incumbents won re-election.
In total, 263 state legislators—86 Democratic and 177 Republican—were term limited in 2018 and were associated with either the Democratic or Republican parties. There were four states where term limits had the potential to have an outsized impact: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Michigan. The number of open seats created by term limits in these states in 2018 created opportunities for either party to gain or lose enough seats to reshape partisan control of one or both legislative chambers in the state. Read below to find out how each house chamber in these four states was affected by term limits in the 2018 elections.
A total of 173 state representatives—58 Democratic and 115 Republican—were term limited in 2018 and were associated with either the Democratic or Republican parties. Heading into the 2018 elections, the Democratic Party was the majority party in four of the 12 term-limited state houses with elections in 2018. The Republican Party held the majority in eight of the 12 term-limited state houses with elections in 2018.[1]
Democrats: Four state houses—California, Colorado, Nevada, and Michigan—had more Democrats term limited than Republicans. As of July 2017, every chamber was held by a Democratic majority except the Michigan House.
- Colorado: Of the 65 seats up for election in 2018, five Democratic seats were impacted by term limits. This represented 7.7 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Democrats held a 37-28 majority in the House.
- Michigan: Of the 110 seats up for election in 2018, 24 seats—13 Democratic and 11 Republican—were impacted by term limits. This represented 21.8 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Republicans held a 63-47 majority in the House.
Republicans: Eight state houses—Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Maine—had more Republicans term limited than Democrats. As of July 2017, every chamber was held by a Republican majority except the Maine House.
- Arizona: Of the 60 seats up for election in 2018, eight seats—three Democratic and five Republican—were impacted by term limits. This represented 13.3 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Republicans held a 35-25 majority in the House.
- Maine: Of the 151 seats up for election in 2018, 19 seats—five Democratic and 14 Republican—were impacted by term limits. This represented 12.58 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Democrats held a 75-71 majority in the House with five independents. In addition, two independent seats were term limited in 2018 and were both held previously by Democratic members before they switched their party affiliation in May 2017.
| 2018 Term-limited state house elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Majority party |  Democraticterm limited |
 Republicanterm limited |
 Nonpartisanterm limited |
Seats up in 2018 | % of seats |
| Arizona | Republican | 3 | 5 | 0 | 60 | 13.3% |
| Arkansas | Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0% |
| California | Democratic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 1.3% |
| Colorado | Democratic | 5 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 7.7% |
| Florida | Republican | 3 | 17 | 0 | 120 | 16.7% |
| Maine | Democratic | 5 | 14 | 2 | 151 | 13.9% |
| Michigan | Republican | 13 | 11 | 0 | 110 | 21.8% |
| Missouri | Republican | 8 | 36 | 0 | 163 | 27% |
| Montana | Republican | 5 | 9 | 0 | 100 | 14% |
| Nevada | Democratic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 2.4% |
| Ohio | Republican | 8 | 12 | 0 | 99 | 20.2% |
| Oklahoma | Republican | 5 | 7 | 0 | 101 | 11.9% |
| South Dakota | Republican | 1 | 4 | 0 | 70 | 7.1% |
| Total | --- | 58 | 115 | 2 | 1,261 | 13.9% |
States
Arizona
The Arizona House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Arizona passed Proposition 107 in 1992. Arizona representatives serve two-year terms with a four-term/eight-year term limit. Arizona's term limits apply to parts of terms and not just full terms.
All 60 seats in the Arizona House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, eight representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (3)
Republicans (5):
Arkansas
The Arkansas House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Arkansas voters approved the Arkansas Term Limits Initiative in 1992 as an initiated constitutional amendment. In 2014, voters approved the Arkansas Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency and Financial Reform Amendment, which permits a legislator to serve a total of 16 years in the House or Senate during his or her lifetime.
All 100 seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, no state representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits.
California
The California State Assembly has been a term-limited state house since California voters approved Proposition 140 in 1990. Under the terms of Proposition 140, the members of the state Assembly can serve no more than three two-year terms in the state Assembly. It permits a politician to serve in either or both chambers of the legislature for a maximum of 12 years.
All 80 seats in the California State Assembly were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, one representative was ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representative was term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (1)
Republicans (0):
- No Republican representatives were term limited in 2018.
Colorado
The Colorado House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Colorado voters approved Issue 5 in 1990. The affirmative vote by Colorado's electorate in Issue 5 altered Section 3 of Article V on the Colorado Constitution to say that state representatives could serve no more than four two-year terms in office.
All 65 seats in the Colorado House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, five representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (5)
Republicans (0):
- No Republican representatives were term limited in 2018.
Florida
The Florida House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Florida voters approved Amendment 9 in 1992. Amendment 9 altered Article VI, section 4 of the Florida Constitution to impose a maximum of four two-year terms on state representatives.
All 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 20 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (3)
Republicans (17):
Maine
The Maine House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Maine voters approved Question 1 in 1993. Under this law, state representatives can serve no more than four consecutive two-year terms. The Maine State Legislature tried, unsuccessfully, in 2007 to get the state's voters to extend the number of years they could consecutively serve in office by putting the Maine Term Limits Extension act on the ballot. Voters overwhelmingly rejected it with 67 percent of the vote.
All 151 seats in the Maine House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 21 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (5)
Republicans (14):
Nonpartisan (2):
Michigan
The Michigan House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Michigan voters approved Proposal B in 1992. Proposal B created Section 54 of Article IV of the Michigan Constitution. It says that state representatives are limited to three two-year terms.
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 24 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (13)
Republicans (11):
Missouri
The Missouri House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Missouri voters approved Amendment 12 in 1992. Amendment 12 created Section 8 of Article III of the Missouri Constitution, limiting members of the state House to four two-year terms during their lifetime. (Section 8 was later amended by Amendment 3 in 2002 so that it does not apply to partial terms.)
All 163 seats in the Missouri House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 44 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (8)
Republicans (36):
- Craig Redmon
- Lindell Shumake
- Delus Johnson
- Galen Higdon
- Nick Marshall
- Mike Cierpiot[8]
- Jeanie Lauer
- Gary Cross
- T.J. Berry
- Bart Korman
- Jay Houghton
- Rick Brattin
- Wanda Brown
- Mike Bernskoetter
- Jay Barnes
- Marsha Haefner
- John McCaherty[9]
- Kurt Bahr
- Kathie Conway
- Paul Curtman
- Keith Frederick
- Diane Franklin
- Mike Kelley
- Sandy Crawford[10]
- Lyndall Fraker
- Don Phillips
- Paul Fitzwater[11]
- Donna Lichtenegger
- Todd Richardson[12]
- Steve Cookson
- Lyle Rowland
- Bill Lant
- Bill Reiboldt
- Bill White
- Charlie Davis
- Kevin Engler
Montana
The Montana House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Montana voters approved CI-64 in 1992. CI-64 created Section 8 of Article IV of the Montana Constitution, which says that state representatives cannot serve eight or more years in any 16-year period.
All 100 seats in the Montana House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 14 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (5)
Republicans (9):
- Mike Cuffe
- Steve Lavin
- Randy Brodehl
- Rob Cook
- Austin Knudsen
- Kelly Flynn
- Ron Ehli
- Edward Greef
- Bill Harris
Nevada
- See also: Nevada State Assembly elections, 2018
The Nevada State Assembly has been a term-limited state house since Nevada voters approved Question 9A in 1996. Question 9A was a second vote on a term limits amendment first approved in 1994. Alone among the states with ballot initiatives, Nevada voters must approve a proposed constitutional amendment twice before it goes into the Nevada Constitution. The 1994 and 1996 votes cumulatively led to Paragraph 2 of Section 3 of Article 4 of the Nevada Constitution, which says, "No person may be elected or appointed as a member of the Assembly who has served in that Office, or at the expiration of his current term if he is so serving will have served, 12 years or more, from any district of this State."
All 42 seats in the Nevada State Assembly were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, one representative was ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representative was term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (1)
Republicans (0):
- No Republican representatives were term limited in 2018.
Ohio
The Ohio House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Ohio voters approved Ballot Issue 4, an initiated constitutional amendment, in 1992. This amendment became part of Section 2 of Article II of the Ohio Constitution and limits the amount of time that state representatives can stay in office to four two-year terms, saying, "No person shall hold the office of State Representative for a period longer than four successive terms of two years. Terms shall be considered successive unless separated by a period of four or more years."
All 99 seats in the Ohio House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 20 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (8)
Republicans (12):
Oklahoma
The Oklahoma House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Oklahoma voters approved State Question 632 in 1990, as an initiated constitutional amendment. This amendment became part of Section 17A of Article V of the Oklahoma Constitution and limits the amount of time that state representatives can serve to a cumulative total of 12 years in either or both chambers of the Oklahoma State Legislature.
All 101 seats in the Oklahoma House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 12 representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (5)
Republicans (7):
South Dakota
The South Dakota House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since South Dakota voters approved Ballot Issue A in 1992, an initiated constitutional amendment. This amendment became part of Section 6 of Article III of the South Dakota Constitution and limits the amount of time that state representatives can stay in office to no more than four consecutive two-year terms.
All 70 seats in the South Dakota House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, five representatives were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state representatives were term limited in 2018:
Democratic: (1)
Republicans (4):
See also
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018
- Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2018
- State legislatures with term limits
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 The Arkansas House was up for election in 2018 and has term limits, but no Arkansas representatives were impacted by term limits in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. In the three chambers, a total of 129 seats were up for election in 2018. No legislators were unable to run in 2018 in those three chamber because of term limits.
- ↑ Ballotpedia confirmed through phone calls that at least seven California legislators were term limited in 2018. The number of California legislators term limited and the overall number of term-limited state legislators had a chance to change if Ballotpedia could confirm that more members were term limited in 2018.
- ↑ Some of the 271 term-limited state legislators in 2018 may resign before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2018.
- ↑ Metz resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Diaz resigned his seat before the end of his term. He was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Schor resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Cierpiot was elected to the state Senate in 2017. His state House seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ McCaherty resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Crawford was elected to the state Senate in 2017. Her seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Fitzwater resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Richardson resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
- ↑ Schaefer died before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state representatives in 2018.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
