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Impact of term limits on state senate elections in 2018
| State legislative term limits analysis | |
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| 2018 state legislative elections |
Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 12 senate chambers included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[1] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[2] There are 99 chambers throughout the country. Louisiana was the only state with term limits that did not have a general election in 2018. The Nevada Senate and Arkansas Senate were up for election in 2018 and have term limits, but no senators were impacted by term limits in 2018.
In 29 legislative chambers across 15 states, state legislators are subject to term limits. In the United States, there are 1,972 state senate seats and 5,411 state house seats. Of the 1,972 senate seats, 562 seats (29 percent) are subject to term limits. Of the 5,411 house seats, 1,368 seats (25 percent) are subject to term limits.
Term-limited senators by state
The map below displays the 15 states that use term limits for state legislators. All 15 states held elections in 2018 except Louisiana. Louisiana holds elections every four years in odd numbered years. Click on a state below to see the total number of termed-out state senators in 2018 as well as a breakdown of the totals for each legislative chamber.
State senates with the biggest term limit impacts
- The Michigan State Senate had the highest percentage of state senators term-limited in 2018. Of the 38 seats up for election, 26 Michigan senators, or 68.4 percent of the chamber, were term-limited in 2018.
State senates with the smallest term limit impacts
- The Arkansas State Senate and the Nevada State Senate were tied with the lowest impact by term limits in the 2018 elections. Both chambers had zero state senators term-limited in 2018.
Differential impact on parties
Term limits can often have an impact on the competitiveness of a state legislative election because term limits create open seats. Open seats are believed to be more electorally competitive than seats in which an incumbent is running for re-election because incumbents tend to win re-election. A 2015 study by Ballotpedia found that in state legislative elections between 1972 and 2014, the incumbency win rate never fell below 90 percent with the exception of 1974 when 88 percent of incumbents won re-election.
In total, 263 state legislators—86 Democratic and 177 Republican—were term-limited in 2018 and were associated with either the Democratic or Republican parties. There were four states where term limits had the potential to have an outsized impact: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Michigan. The number of open seats created by term limits in these states in 2018 created opportunities for either party to gain or lose enough seats to reshape partisan control of one or both legislative chambers in the state. Read below to find out how each senate chamber in these four states was affected by term limits in the 2018 elections.
A total of 90 state senators—28 Democratic and 62 Republican—were term-limited in 2018 and were associated with either the Democratic or Republican parties. Going into the 2018 elections, the Democratic Party was the majority party in one of the 12 term-limited state senates with elections in 2018. The Republican Party was the majority in 10 of the 12 state senates with elections in 2018.[1] Nebraska's state Senate is term-limited and officially nonpartisan.
Democrats: One state senate—Colorado—had more Democrats term-limited than Republicans.
- Colorado: Out of the 17 seats up for election in the Colorado State Senate in 2018, seven seats—four Democratic and three Republican—were impacted by term limits. This represented 41.2 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Republican held a 18-17 majority in the Senate.
Republicans: Eight state senates—California, Arizona, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, and Ohio—had more Republicans term-limited than Democrats. As of July 2017, every chamber was held by a Republican majority except the California State Senate.
- Arizona: Of the 30 seats up for election in 2018, six seats—four Republican and two Democratic—were impacted by term limits. This represented 20 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Republicans held a 17-13 majority in the Senate.
- Maine: Of the 35 seats up for election in 2018, eight seats—seven Republican and one Democratic—were impacted by term limits. This represented 22.9 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Republicans held a 18-17 majority in the Senate.
- Michigan: Of the 38 seats up for election in 2018, 26 seats—19 Republican and seven Democratic—were impacted by term limits. This represented 68.4 percent of the seats up for election in 2018. As of July 2017, Republicans held a 27-11 majority in the Senate.
| 2018 term-limited state senate elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Majority party |  Democraticterm-limited |
 Republicanterm-limited |
 Nonpartisanterm-limited |
Seats up in 2018 | % of seats |
| Arizona | Republican | 2 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 20% |
| Arkansas | Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0% |
| California | Democratic | 2 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 30% |
| Colorado | Republican | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 41.2% |
| Florida | Republican | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 10% |
| Maine | Republican | 1 | 7 | 0 | 35 | 22.9% |
| Michigan | Republican | 7 | 19 | 0 | 38 | 68.4% |
| Missouri | Republican | 1 | 8 | 0 | 17 | 52.9% |
| Montana | Republican | 2 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 24% |
| Nebraska | Nonpartisan[5] | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 25% |
| Nevada | Democratic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0% |
| Ohio | Republican | 4 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 58.8% |
| Oklahoma | Republican | 3 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 25% |
| South Dakota | Republican | 2 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 11.4% |
| Total | --- | 28 | 62 | 6 | 331 | 29% |
States
Arizona
- See also: Arizona State Senate elections, 2018
The Arizona State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Arizona passed Proposition 107 in 1992. Arizona senators serve two-year terms with a four-term/eight-year term limit.
All 30 seats in the Arizona State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, six senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (2)
Republicans (4):
Arkansas
- See also: Arkansas State Senate elections, 2018
The Arkansas State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Arkansas voters approved the Arkansas Term Limits Initiative in 1992 as an initiated constitutional amendment. In 2014, voters approved the Arkansas Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency and Financial Reform Amendment which permits legislators to serve a total of 16 years in the House or Senate during his or her lifetime.
A total of 18 out of 35 seats in the Arkansas State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, no state senators were ineligible to run because of term limits.
California
- See also: California State Senate elections, 2018
The California State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since California voters approved Proposition 140 in 1990. In 2012, California voters approved Proposition 28, which reduced the total number of years a politician can serve in the California State Legislature from 14 years to 12 years. It permits a politician to serve in either or both chambers of the legislature for a maximum of 12 years. The changes did not apply to any legislator who was already in office at the time that the initiative was approved; the rules governing the terms of those who are in the California State Legislature as of June 5, 2012, are calculated under the previous rules.
A total of 20 out of 40 seats in the California State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, six senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (2)
Republicans (4):
Colorado
- See also: Colorado State Senate elections, 2018
The Colorado State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Colorado voters approved Issue 5 in 1990. The affirmative vote by Colorado's electorate in Issue 5 altered Section 3 of Article V on the Colorado Constitution to say that Colorado state senators could serve no more than two four-year terms in office.
A total of 17 out of 35 seats in the Colorado State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, seven senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (4)
Republicans (3):
Florida
- See also: Florida State Senate elections, 2018
The Florida State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Florida voters approved Amendment 9 in 1992. Amendment 9 altered Article VI, section 4 of the Florida Constitution to impose a maximum of two four-year terms on Florida state senators.
A total of 20 out of 40 seats in the Florida State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, two senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (0)
- No Democratic senators were term-limited in 2018.
Republicans (2):
Maine
- See also: Maine State Senate elections, 2018
The Maine State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Maine voters approved Question 1 in 1993. Under this law, state senators can serve no more than four consecutive two-year terms. The Maine State Legislature tried, unsuccessfully, in 2007 to get the state's voters to extend the number of years they could consecutively serve in office by putting the Maine Term Limits Extension act on the ballot. Voters overwhelmingly rejected it by 67 percent of the vote.
All 35 seats in the Maine State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, eight senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (1)
Republicans (7):
- Rodney Whittemore
- Brian Langley
- Michael Thibodeau
- Roger Katz
- Thomas Saviello
- Garrett Mason
- Ronald Collins
Michigan
- See also: Michigan State Senate elections, 2018
The Michigan State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Michigan voters approved the Michigan Term Limits Act in 1992. That initiative said that Michigan senators are subject to term limits of no more than two four-year terms, or a total of eight years. The first year that the term limits enacted in 1992 impacted the ability of incumbents to run for office was in 2002.
All 38 seats in the Michigan State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, 26 senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (7)
- Coleman Young II
- Bert Johnson[7]
- Morris Hood
- Hoon-Yung Hopgood
- Steven Bieda
- Vincent Gregory
- Rebekah Warren
Republicans (19):
Missouri
- See also: Missouri State Senate elections, 2018
The Missouri State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Missouri voters approved Amendment 13 in 1992. Amendment 13 created Section 8 of Article III of the Missouri Constitution, limiting state senators to two four-year terms. Section 8 was later amended by Amendment 3 in 2002 so that it does not apply to partial terms.
A total of 17 out of 34 seats in the Missouri State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, nine senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (1)
Republicans (8):
Montana
- See also: Montana State Senate elections, 2018
The Montana State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Montana voters approved CI-64 in 1992. C-64 created Section 8 of Article IV of the Montana Constitution, which says that Montana State Senators cannot serve eight or more years in any 16-year period as a state senator.
A total of 25 out of 50 seats in the Montana State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, six senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (2)
Republicans (4):
Nebraska
- See also: Nebraska State Senate elections, 2018
The Nebraska State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Nebraska voters approved Initiative 415 (2000). Under the terms of Initiative 415, Nebraska's senators can serve no more than two consecutive four-year terms in the state Senate.
A total of 24 out of 49 seats in the Nebraska State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, six senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Nonpartisan: (6)
Nevada
- See also: Nevada State Senate elections, 2018
The Nevada State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Nevada voters approved Question 9A in 1996. Question 9A was a second vote on a term limits amendment first approved in 1994. Alone among the states with ballot initiatives, Nevada voters must approve a proposed constitutional amendment twice before it goes into the Nevada Constitution. The 1994 and 1996 votes cumulatively led to Paragraph 2 of Section 4 of Article 4 of the Nevada Constitution, which says, "No person may be elected or appointed as a Senator who has served in that Office, or at the expiration of his current term if he is so serving will have served, 12 years or more, from any district of this State."
A total of 11 out of 21 seats in the Nevada State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, no state senators were ineligible to run because of term limits.
Ohio
- See also: Ohio State Senate elections, 2018
The Ohio State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Ohio voters approved Ballot Issue 4, an initiated constitutional amendment, in 1992. This amendment became part of Section 2 of Article II of the Ohio Constitution and limits the amount of time that an Ohio state senator can stay in office to two four-year terms, saying, "No person shall hold the office of State Senator for a period longer than two successive terms of four years." Senators can run for office again after being out-of-office for at least a four-year period.
A total of 17 out of 33 seats in the Ohio State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, ten senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (4)
Republicans (6):
Oklahoma
- See also: Oklahoma State Senate elections, 2018
The Oklahoma State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Oklahoma voters approved State Question 632 in 1990, as an initiated constitutional amendment. This amendment became part of Section 17A of Article V of the Oklahoma Constitution and limits the amount of time that an Oklahoma State Senator can serve to a cumulative total of 12 years in either or both chambers of the Oklahoma State Legislature.
A total of 24 out of 48 seats in the Oklahoma State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, six senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (3)
Republicans (3):
South Dakota
The South Dakota State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since South Dakota voters approved Ballot Issue A in 1992, an initiated constitutional amendment. This amendment became part of Section 6 of Article III of the South Dakota Constitution and limits the amount of time that a South Dakota State Senator can stay in office to no more than four consecutive two-year terms.
The South Dakota State Legislature has tried on more than one occasion, each time unsuccessfully, to persuade the state's voters to repeal term limits. The most recent such failed attempt was when Amendment J lost in 2008 by 75 percent of the vote.
All 35 seats in the South Dakota State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, four senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (2)
Republicans (2):
See also
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018
- Impact of term limits on state representative elections in 2018
- State legislatures with term limits
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 The Nevada Senate and Arkansas Senate were up for election in 2018 and have term limits, but no senators were impacted by term limits in 2018.
- ↑ The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. In the three chambers, a total of 129 seats were up for election in 2018. No legislators were unable to run in 2018 in those three chamber because of term limits.
- ↑ Ballotpedia confirmed through phone calls that at least seven California legislators were term-limited in 2018. The number of California legislators term-limited and the overall number of term-limited state legislators had a chance to change if Ballotpedia could confirm that more members were term-limited in 2018.
- ↑ Some of the 271 term-limited state legislators in 2018 may resign before their term ends. These legislators were still counted in the total number of term-limited legislators in 2018.
- ↑ The Nebraska Senate is officially nonpartisan, but is held by the Republican Party. Five Republicans and one Democrat were term-limited in 2018. For more information on how Ballotpedia determined the partisan affiliation for Nebraska senators, please click here.
- ↑ Latvala resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2018.
- ↑ Johnson resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2018.
- ↑ Kraus resigned his seat before the end of his term. His seat was still counted in the total number of term-limited state senators in 2018.
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