Incumbent win rates by state, 2018-present
This page summarizes and provides links to Ballotpedia's annual analysis of incumbent win rates by state. It accounts for congressional, state executive, state legislative, state judicial, and local offices within our coverage scope.[1]
Click a year below to read analysis from that year.
2024
In 2024, 90% or more of incumbents won re-election in 43 states. In 2022, it was more than 90% in 41 states, and in 2020, it was at or above 90% in 47 states.
Click here to see 2024 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
2023
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 7, 2023, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2023 general election, an average of 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids.[2]
Comparatively, in the 2022 general election, 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2021 November election, 86% of incumbents were successful.
- The incumbent win rate remained at or above 90% in all but seven states—Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
- The lowest overall incumbent win rate was in Colorado with 70%. Eleven states had a 100% incumbent win rate.
- State-level incumbents had a 97% win rate. Three states had a 100% win rate in state-level races.
- State legislative incumbents had a 97% average win rate. No states had a 100% win rate in state legislative races.
- Local-level incumbents had a 92% average win rate. Twelve states had a 100% win rate in local-level races.
- Local legislative incumbents had a 91% average win rate. Twelve states had a 100% win rate in local legislative races.
Click here to see 2023 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
2022
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 8, 2022, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2022 general election, an average of 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids.[3]
Comparatively, in the 2021 general election, 86% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2020 November election, 93% of incumbents were successful.
- The incumbent win rate remained at or above 90% in all but nine states—Alaska, California, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia.
- The lowest overall incumbent win rate was in Virginia with 77%. Delaware and Mississippi were the only states to see a 100% incumbent win rate.
- Congressional incumbents had a 98% win rate. Forty-one states had a 100% win rate in congressional races.
- State-level incumbents had a 96% win rate. Four states had a 100% win rate in state-level races.
- State legislative incumbents had a 96% average win rate.
- Local-level incumbents had an 89% average win rate. Twelve states had a 100% win rate in local-level races.
- Local legislative incumbents saw an average incumbent win rate of 83%.
Click here to see 2022 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
2021
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 2, 2021, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2021 general election, an average of 85.54% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids.[4] The number drops to 82.35% when including incumbents that withdrew or were disqualified.
Comparatively, in the 2020 general election, 93% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2019 November election, 90% of incumbents were successful.
- State legislative incumbents had an 89% average win rate in November 2021.
- Local legislative incumbents saw an average incumbent win rate of 80%.
- Minnesota incumbents were the least successful with a win rate of 55%, followed by Kansas (59%) and Colorado (67%).
Click here to see 2021 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
2020
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 3, 2020, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2020 general election, 93% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed but does not include recall elections.
- The incumbent win rate remained at or above 90% in all states but California, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia.
- The lowest overall incumbent win rate was in California with 85%. New Jersey was the only state to see a 100% incumbent win rate.
- Congressional incumbents had a 96% win rate. Thirty-eight states had a 100% win rate in congressional races.
- State-level incumbents had a 95% win rate. Five states had a 100% win rate in state-level races.
- Local-level incumbents had an 89% average win rate. Eight states had a 100% win rate in local-level races.
click here to see 2020 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
2019
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 5, 2019, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2019 general election, an average of 90% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed.
- The incumbent win rate for state seats remained above 95% in all states but Kentucky.
- State legislative incumbents had a 97% average win rate.
- The incumbent win rate for Kentucky statewide offices was 75%.
- Local elections saw an average incumbent win rate of 89%, slightly lower than the combined average win rate of 90%.
- The lowest incumbent win rate for local elections covered by Ballotpedia was in Kentucky, which saw a 50% win rate.
Click here to see 2019 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
2018
Ballotpedia covered all federal and state races on November 6, 2018, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2018 general election, an average of 92 percent of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed.
Incumbents had the lowest win rates in Texas, holding their seats in 81 percent of races. In just one state, Mississippi, 100 percent of incumbents held their seats.
Click here to see 2018 incumbent win rates broken down by state.
See also
- Congressional Analysis Archive
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
- ↑ This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed and does not include recall elections.
- ↑ This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed and does not include recall elections.
- ↑ This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed and does not include recall elections.
- ↑ This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed.
