State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015

Last updated on November 18, 2024

2015 State Legislative Competitiveness
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There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2015 in four states. Overall, 460 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 107 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 23% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was up from 2011 (21%), the last time all four states held elections.

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

In 2015:

There were 46 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 24% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 21% decrease from 2011.

There were 60 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 33% increase from 2011.

There was one minor party or independent incumbent in contested primaries, representing 50% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.

The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—107—was up from 2011 (104), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 3% increase.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	407	147	35	23.8%	202	40	19.8%	351	76	21.7%
Senate	131	43	11	25.6%	66	20	30.3%	109	31	28.4%
Total	538	190	46	24.2%	268	60	22.4%	460	107	23.3%

Click [show] on the table below to view incumbents in contested primaries statistics by state in 2015. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015
State	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
Nationwide	538	190	46	24.2%	268	60	22.4%	460	107	23.3%
Louisiana	144	39	12	30.8%	69	25	36.2%	110	38	34.5%
Mississippi	174	63	26	41.3%	89	26	29.2%	152	52	34.2%
New Jersey	80	43	4	9.3%	30	3	10.0%	73	7	9.6%
Virginia	140	45	4	8.9%	80	6	7.5%	125	10	8.0%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2015.

Click [show] on the table below to view overall incumbents in contested primaries statistics by state from 2011 to 2015. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2011-2015
State
	2011		2013		2015
	Cont.	%	Cont.	%	Cont.	%
Nationwide	104	21.4%	24	11.7%	107	23.3%
Louisiana	50	45.5%	-	-	38	34.5%
Mississippi	34	23.1%	-	-	52	34.2%
New Jersey	18	17.0%	17	14.9%	7	9.6%
Virginia	2	1.6%	7	7.7%	10	8.0%

Louisiana

There were 144 seats up for election in Louisiana. A total of 110 incumbents filed for re-election: 39 Democrats, 69 Republicans, and two minor party or independent incumbents. Of that total, 38 incumbents—12 Democrats, 25 Republicans, and one minor party or independent incumbent—faced contested primaries, representing 34.5% of incumbents who filed for re-election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Louisiana, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	105	31	11	35.5%	49	18	36.7%	82	30	36.6%
Senate	39	8	1	12.5%	20	7	35.0%	28	8	28.6%
Total	144	39	12	30.8%	69	25	36.2%	110	38	34.5%

2011-2015

Historical statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Louisiana, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
2011	144	46	27	58.7%	63	22	34.9%	110	50	45.5%
2013	Did not hold elections
2015	144	39	12	30.8%	69	25	36.2%	110	38	34.5%

See also:

• Louisiana House of Representatives elections, 2015
• Louisiana State Senate elections, 2015

Mississippi

There were 174 seats up for election in Mississippi. A total of 152 incumbents filed for re-election: 63 Democrats and 89 Republicans. Of that total, 52 incumbents—26 Democrats and 26 Republicans—faced contested primaries, representing 34.2% of incumbents who filed for re-election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Mississippi, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	122	45	17	37.8%	60	16	26.7%	105	33	31.4%
Senate	52	18	9	50.0%	29	10	34.5%	47	19	40.4%
Total	174	63	26	41.3%	89	26	29.2%	152	52	34.2%

2011-2015

Historical statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Mississippi, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
2011	174	78	18	23.1%	68	16	23.5%	147	34	23.1%
2013	Did not hold elections
2015	174	63	26	41.3%	89	26	29.2%	152	52	34.2%

See also:

• Mississippi House of Representatives elections, 2015
• Mississippi State Senate elections, 2015

New Jersey

There were 80 seats up for election in New Jersey. A total of 73 incumbents filed for re-election: 43 Democrats and 30 Republicans. Of that total, seven incumbents—four Democrats and three Republicans—faced contested primaries, representing 9.6% of incumbents who filed for re-election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in New Jersey, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	80	43	4	9.3%	30	3	10.0%	73	7	9.6%
Senate	Did not hold elections
Total	80	43	4	9.3%	30	3	10.0%	73	7	9.6%

2011-2015

Historical statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in New Jersey, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
2011	120	63	12	19.0%	43	6	14.0%	106	18	17.0%
2013	120	68	12	17.6%	46	5	10.9%	114	17	14.9%
2015	80	43	4	9.3%	30	3	10.0%	73	7	9.6%

See also:

• New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2015
• New Jersey State Senate elections, 2015

Virginia

There were 140 seats up for election in Virginia. A total of 125 incumbents filed for re-election: 45 Democrats and 80 Republicans. Of that total, 10 incumbents—four Democrats and six Republicans—faced contested primaries, representing 8.0% of incumbents who filed for re-election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Virginia, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	100	28	3	10.7%	63	3	4.8%	91	6	6.6%
Senate	40	17	1	5.9%	17	3	17.6%	34	4	11.8%
Total	140	45	4	8.9%	80	6	7.5%	125	10	8.0%

2011-2015

Historical statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries in Virginia, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
2011	140	53	1	1.9%	68	1	1.5%	122	2	1.6%
2013	100	30	2	6.7%	61	5	8.2%	91	7	7.7%
2015	140	45	4	8.9%	80	6	7.5%	125	10	8.0%

See also:

• Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2015
• Virginia State Senate elections, 2015

Terms and definitions

Incumbent

See also: Incumbent

Ballotpedia defines incumbency by chamber. Under this definition, if an incumbent in House District 1 filed for re-election in House District 2, they would still be counted as an incumbent due to their remaining in the same chamber even though they ran for a different seat. If an incumbent in House District 1 filed to run in Senate District 2, they would not be counted as an incumbent in the Senate race since they are coming from a different chamber.

Ballotpedia uses the term re-elect to refer to any incumbent who is running in an election to retain their office, including incumbents who were originally appointed to their position.

Contested primary

See also: Primary election

A contested primary is one where there are more candidates running than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate on the primary ballot must lose.

The number of candidates needed to create a contested primary depends on the primary system in place and the number of seats up for election in a state legislative district.

In states with partisan primaries, a primary is typically contested when two or more candidates from the same political party file to run since only one candidate can receive their party's nomination. In states with multi-member state legislative districts, the number of candidates a party can nominate to the general election ballot depends on the number of seats in the district. In these cases, a primary is contested when at least one more candidate files to run than there are seats in the district. In states with top-two/four primaries, a primary is contested when more than two (in states with a top-two system) or more than four (in states with a top-four system) candidates file to run.

Methodology

Counting incumbents in contested primaries

An incumbent is counted as facing a contested primary when there is a chance that incumbent could lose to a primary challenger. Each incumbent is counted individually.

Typically, in a single-member district, this means the incumbent filed for re-election and faced one or more primary challengers.

But in states with multi-member districts, several incumbents might be seeking re-election. If such a primary becomes contested, every incumbent running for re-election is counted as facing a contested primary even if it is not possible for every incumbent to lose.

For example, in a district with two seats where two Democratic incumbents file for re-election, if a third Democrat joins the primary, both of the Democratic incumbents are counted as facing a contested primary even though the third primary challenger can only potentially defeat one.

In the event of an incumbent v. incumbent primary, where there are more incumbents running in the primary than nominations available, every incumbent present is counted as facing a contested primary.

Candidacy withdrawals

See also: Signature requirements and deadlines for 2015 state government elections

In order to have their names printed on election ballots, candidates must submit information prior to a filing deadline. Filing deadlines are the dates by which candidates must submit required paperwork to state election administrators.

For major party candidates, filing deadlines always precede primaries. However, candidates may choose to withdraw before the primary takes place. Withdrawals include decisions to leave the race, disqualifications, and deaths. These withdrawals are either official or unofficial.

An official withdrawal means the candidate withdrew before a specific date set in state law and their name was removed from the primary ballot. If an incumbent officially withdrew before the primary, they are not included in any of the totals of this analysis, unless they later re-entered the race as a minor party or independent candidate.

An unofficial withdrawal means the candidate withdrew after a specific date set in state law, typically after ballots have been printed, meaning their name remains on the ballot even though they are not actively campaigning. If an incumbent unofficially withdrew, they are included in the totals of this analysis.

Minor party and independent incumbents

Minor party and independent incumbents typically do not participate in primaries in the same way major party incumbents might.

For minor party incumbents, nominations are normally carried out via conventions, which are limited to a smaller number of voting delegates. Ballotpedia does not count conventions as primaries.

Independent incumbents normally do not participate in primaries, qualifying instead for the general election ballot directly.

If a minor party or independent incumbent participates in a contested primary (partisan or top-two/four), they are included in the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.

All minor party or independent incumbents who have filed for re-election are included in the total number of incumbents running at the time of the primary even if the filing deadline was later than the primary date.

Convention defeats

If an incumbent is defeated in a convention and did not appear in any later elections, that incumbent is still included in the total number of incumbents who filed for re-election even though they were not running at the time of the primary.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2015
  • Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2015
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2015
  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2015
  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015
  • State legislative incumbents without general election challengers, 2015
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2015

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