Indiana's 4th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Indiana's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 7, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Jim Baird (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Indiana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Indiana's 4th Congressional District
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Indiana elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Indiana, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Jim Baird won election in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
February 7, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Jim Baird, who was first elected in 2018.

Indiana's 4th Congressional District is based primarily in western Indiana and includes Benton, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Fountain, Hendricks, Jasper, Montgomery, Newton, Putnam, Tippecanoe, Warren, and White counties. The district also includes parts of Boone, Howard and Morgan counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Indiana's 4th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 34 33.4
Republican candidate Republican Party 63.8 66.6
Difference 29.8 33.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Indiana did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Indiana District 4

Incumbent Jim Baird defeated Joe Mackey in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 4 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jim Baird
Jim Baird (R)
 
66.6
 
225,531
Image of Joe Mackey
Joe Mackey (D)
 
33.4
 
112,984

Total votes: 338,515
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4

Joe Mackey defeated Veronikka Ziol, Benjamin Frederick, and Howard Pollchik in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Joe Mackey
Joe Mackey
 
53.9
 
18,086
Veronikka Ziol
 
28.7
 
9,630
Benjamin Frederick
 
13.4
 
4,484
Howard Pollchik
 
4.0
 
1,328

Total votes: 33,528
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4

Incumbent Jim Baird advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jim Baird
Jim Baird
 
100.0
 
65,806

Total votes: 65,806
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 92 Indiana counties—5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Delaware County, Indiana 13.43% 3.12% 14.98%
LaPorte County, Indiana 6.33% 12.57% 22.04%
Perry County, Indiana 18.55% 11.59% 22.84%
Porter County, Indiana 6.59% 3.90% 7.20%
Vigo County, Indiana 14.97% 0.86% 15.83%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Indiana with 56.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 37.8 percent. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) was Trump's running mate. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican 83.33 percent of the time and Democratic 16.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican four times and Democratic once when it voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Indiana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 25 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.9 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 25.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 75 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 34.3 points. Trump won six districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Indiana's 4th Congressional District the 69th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.99. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.99 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Jim Baird Republican Party $371,674 $233,208 $247,371 As of December 31, 2020
Joe Mackey Democratic Party $45,153 $43,780 $1,590 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Indiana's 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Indiana's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Indiana District 4

Jim Baird defeated Tobi Beck in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jim Baird
Jim Baird (R)
 
64.1
 
156,539
Image of Tobi Beck
Tobi Beck (D)
 
35.9
 
87,824

Total votes: 244,363
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Tobi Beck
Tobi Beck
 
34.6
 
6,467
Veronikka Ziol
 
21.1
 
3,938
Image of Joe Mackey
Joe Mackey
 
16.1
 
3,013
Roger Day
 
12.4
 
2,324
Roland Ellis
 
9.2
 
1,712
Image of Darin Patrick Griesey
Darin Patrick Griesey
 
6.7
 
1,249

Total votes: 18,703
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 4 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jim Baird
Jim Baird
 
36.6
 
29,319
Image of Steve Braun
Steve Braun
 
29.5
 
23,602
Image of Diego Morales
Diego Morales
 
15.0
 
11,997
Image of Jared Thomas
Jared Thomas
 
10.5
 
8,435
Image of Kevin Grant
Kevin Grant
 
4.6
 
3,667
Image of James Nease
James Nease
 
2.6
 
2,097
Image of Tim Radice
Tim Radice
 
1.3
 
1,013

Total votes: 80,130
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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2016

See also: Indiana's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Todd Rokita (R) defeated John Dale (D) and Steven Mayoras (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Rokita withdrew from the race on July 15, 2016, in order to run for governor of Indiana following a ballot vacancy. Rokita was not chosen to fill that vacancy, prompting him to once again seek re-election to his House seat. Republican committee members decided on August 13 to reinstate Rokita on the ballot.[12] Rokita defeated Kevin Grant in the Republican primary.[13][14][15][16]

U.S. House, Indiana District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Rokita Incumbent 64.6% 193,412
     Democratic John Dale 30.5% 91,256
     Libertarian Steven Mayoras 4.9% 14,766
Total Votes 299,434
Source: Indiana Division of Elections


U.S. House, Indiana District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Rokita Incumbent 69.3% 86,051
Kevin Grant 30.7% 38,200
Total Votes 124,251
Source: Indiana Secretary of State

2014

See also: Indiana's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Indiana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Todd Rokita (R) defeated John Dale (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Indiana District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Rokita Incumbent 66.9% 94,998
     Democratic John Dale 33.1% 47,056
Total Votes 142,054
Source: Indiana Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. KLTV, "The Latest: Pence praises GOP replacement choice," July 26, 2016
  13. Indiana Secretary of State, "May 3, 2016 Primary Election," accessed February 8, 2016
  14. The New York Times, "Indiana Primary Results," May 3, 2016
  15. WBAA, "Brooks, Rokita Back On Congressional Ballots Following Weekend Caucuses," August 14, 2016
  16. Indiana Secretary of State, "November 8, 2016 General Election," accessed September 6, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
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District 3
District 4
Jim Baird (R)
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (2)