Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Indiana's 9th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 7, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Trey Hollingsworth (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Indiana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Indiana's 9th Congressional District
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Indiana elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 9th Congressional District of Indiana, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth won election in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 9.

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Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
February 7, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Trey Hollingsworth, who was first elected in 2016.

Indiana's 9th Congressional District is located in south-central Indiana and includes Brown, Clark, Floyd, Harrison, Jackson, Johnson, Lawrence, Monroe, Orange, and Washington counties as well as areas of Crawford, Morgan, and Scott counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Indiana's 9th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 37.2 34.8
Republican candidate Republican Party 60.8 60.9
Difference 23.6 26.1

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Indiana did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth defeated Andy Ruff and Tonya Millis in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Trey Hollingsworth
Trey Hollingsworth (R)
 
60.9
 
218,606
Image of Andy Ruff
Andy Ruff (D) Candidate Connection
 
34.8
 
124,826
Image of Tonya Millis
Tonya Millis (L)
 
4.3
 
15,601

Total votes: 359,033
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Andy Ruff defeated Mark J. Powell, D. Liam Dorris, Brandon Hood, and James O'Gabhann III in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Andy Ruff
Andy Ruff Candidate Connection
 
43.7
 
21,626
Image of Mark J. Powell
Mark J. Powell Candidate Connection
 
19.9
 
9,872
Image of D. Liam Dorris
D. Liam Dorris Candidate Connection
 
15.8
 
7,813
Image of Brandon Hood
Brandon Hood Candidate Connection
 
13.9
 
6,899
James O'Gabhann III Candidate Connection
 
6.7
 
3,306

Total votes: 49,516
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Trey Hollingsworth
Trey Hollingsworth
 
100.0
 
62,962

Total votes: 62,962
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Tonya Millis advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on March 7, 2020.

Candidate
Image of Tonya Millis
Tonya Millis (L)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 92 Indiana counties—5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Delaware County, Indiana 13.43% 3.12% 14.98%
LaPorte County, Indiana 6.33% 12.57% 22.04%
Perry County, Indiana 18.55% 11.59% 22.84%
Porter County, Indiana 6.59% 3.90% 7.20%
Vigo County, Indiana 14.97% 0.86% 15.83%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Indiana with 56.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 37.8 percent. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) was Trump's running mate. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican 83.33 percent of the time and Democratic 16.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican four times and Democratic once when it voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Indiana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 25 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.9 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 25.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 75 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 34.3 points. Trump won six districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Indiana's 9th Congressional District the 104th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Trey Hollingsworth Republican Party $1,180,899 $515,280 $672,944 As of December 31, 2020
Andy Ruff Democratic Party $149,770 $136,412 $13,357 As of December 31, 2020
Tonya Millis Libertarian Party $10,224 $10,041 $59 As of November 12, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth defeated Liz Watson in the general election for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Trey Hollingsworth
Trey Hollingsworth (R)
 
56.5
 
153,271
Image of Liz Watson
Liz Watson (D)
 
43.5
 
118,090

Total votes: 271,361
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Liz Watson defeated Daniel Canon and Rob Chatlos in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Liz Watson
Liz Watson
 
66.4
 
24,989
Image of Daniel Canon
Daniel Canon
 
30.7
 
11,558
Image of Rob Chatlos
Rob Chatlos
 
2.9
 
1,100

Total votes: 37,647
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9

Incumbent Trey Hollingsworth defeated James Dean Alspach in the Republican primary for U.S. House Indiana District 9 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Trey Hollingsworth
Trey Hollingsworth
 
77.7
 
46,892
James Dean Alspach
 
22.3
 
13,449

Total votes: 60,341
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Independent primary election

No Independent candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Todd Young (R) won election to the U.S. Senate in 2016, leaving his seat open. Trey Hollingsworth (R) defeated Shelli Yoder (D) and Russell Brooksbank (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Hollingsworth defeated Robert Hall, Erin Houchin, Brent Waltz, and Greg Zoeller in the Republican primary. On the other side of the aisle, Yoder defeated Bob Kern, James McClure Jr., and Bill Thomas to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on May 3, 2016.[12][13]

U.S. House, Indiana District 9 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTrey Hollingsworth 54.1% 174,791
     Democratic Shelli Yoder 40.5% 130,627
     Libertarian Russell Brooksbank 5.4% 17,425
Total Votes 322,843
Source: Indiana Division of Elections


U.S. House, Indiana District 9 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTrey Hollingsworth 33.5% 40,767
Erin Houchin 25% 30,396
Greg Zoeller 21.9% 26,554
Brent Waltz 13% 15,759
Robert Hall 6.6% 8,036
Total Votes 121,512
Source: Indiana Secretary of State
U.S. House, Indiana District 9 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngShelli Yoder 70.1% 44,253
Bob Kern 11.6% 7,298
James McClure Jr. 10.4% 6,574
Bill Thomas 7.9% 4,990
Total Votes 63,115
Source: Indiana Secretary of State

2014

See also: Indiana's 9th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 9th Congressional District of Indiana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Todd Young (R) defeated Bill Bailey (D) and R. Mike Frey (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Indiana District 9 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTodd Young Incumbent 62.2% 101,594
     Democratic Bill Bailey 33.7% 55,016
     Libertarian Mike Frey 4.1% 6,777
Total Votes 163,387
Source: Indiana Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Jim Baird (R)
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (9)
Democratic Party (2)