Insiders Poll: Who won the Eleventh Republican debate?
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Kasich Connects
March 4, 2016
By James A. Barnes
In a brawling and at one point bawdy debate, Ohio Gov. John Kasich finally connected with Republicans who have tended to dismiss his presidential bid. Ballotpedia surveyed more than 110 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives on the debate in Detroit hosted by Fox News and a plurality of the 72 GOP Insiders who responded said Kasich was the “biggest winner” of the debate.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio spent much of the evening reprising their criticisms of the Republican frontrunner, billionaire developer and former television reality show star Donald Trump. For their efforts about a quarter of the GOP Insiders thought each one had the best night.
Kasich’s blue ribbon is noteworthy because it’s the first time he has scored so well on a debate with Republican Political Insiders. Much of Kasich’s success can be attributed to what he didn’t say or do on stage—attack and insult his GOP rivals. “The only one not in the clown car,” said one GOP Insider of Kasich. “Three kids in a sandbox and one adult,” declared another. “He didn't get hit with anything and looked reasonable, like a Dad breaking up a pillow fight,” added another. The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders.
Republican Insiders were repelled by the tenor of the debate that was set by the GOP candidates who lead Kasich in the polls. “The other three were just ridiculous tonight,” observed one GOP Insider. “What a mess that was.” Another echoed, “Kasich won by not agreeing to be a part of the Jerry Springer show which preempted a Republican debate.” Added a third, “Kasich talked about real issues and solutions while Trump, Rubio and Cruz wrestled in the mud.”
Runner-up Rubio and Cruz won some plaudits as well. “Rubio has hit his stride; Kasich looks and acts the adult,” said one GOP Insider. Cruz “killed it,” said another. He was “the only one who spoke in paragraphs,” maintained one GOP Insider.
Democratic Insiders also gave Kasich the nod in the Detroit debate. “I think he held his own without devolving into the scrum,” said one Democratic Insider. “Strange to say he was the winner when he got so little time, but everyone else really seemed to hurt himself,” added another Democrat.
But Democrats also wondered how much of a reward the Ohioan could reap for his effort. “Kasich won the debate but his very low starting point and his soundbite-less rationale responses limit the outcome for him,” observed one Democrat. “He has had the best night in every debate, but he’s not where the Republican electorate is,” explained another.
Trump may not win any debates at Oxford, but in presidential politics if you’re the frontrunner and you emerge from a candidate face-off with only a few bruises, you’ve had a good night. “Until the polls change, Trump wins,” said one Democrat succinctly. “He once again kept his feet despite being hit with round houses.”
Some Republicans Insiders concurred with their Democratic counterparts. “Closest of all the debates,” judged one GOP Insider. “I thought it was a four-way tie, so Trump wins.” Another said, “Trump held his own. His challengers looked like two kids and a curmudgeon.” And third Republican who thought Trump did well opined; “Nothing happened that will change the course of events so the real winner was HRC.”
In a separate question on whether the candidates had helped or hurt themselves in the debate, three-in-five of the Republican Insiders said Kasich had helped himself, half said Cruz and two-in-five said Rubio had been helped. Here, Trump was judged harshly: nearly two-thirds of the GOP Insiders said Trump had hurt himself with his performance.
“Amazingly Trump took hits in the debate like someone fighting Mike Tyson early in his career,” said one GOP Insider. “The difference is he would never lay down.”
One of those throwing punches was Rubio, but some Insiders felt he may not have been well served by playing the aggressor. “It was a thankless task for Rubio to take down Trump several notches,” observed one GOP Insider. “He succeeded but splattered mud on himself too.” Another echoed, “Rubio may feel like he has to take Donald down but he's going down with him.” And a third said, "At this point I don't think voters want to see a verbal food fight. Kasich and Cruz truly stood out."
The challenge for Kasich is capitalizing on his best debate performance with dwindling prospects to score a primary or caucus victory and less than two weeks to go before his home state’s nominating contest. “Tonight the adult on the stage won the night,” maintained one Republican Insider. “Issue command, presence, optimism; it may be late, but it is not too late.” Another GOP Insider averred, “Kasich grows on you, but it is too little, too late.”
Other Political Insiders acknowledged that their opinions on this unprecedented presidential campaign are hardly infallible. “I thought Trump self–destructed, but this year, what do I know?” asked one Republican influential.
One thing many Republicans agreed on, the Detroit debate wasn’t very presidential. “So we are reduced to this?” asked one GOP Insider. “My party is reduced to a locker room chat about the size of a penis. Really?” One GOP recalled while watching the debate, “My wife looked at me and said, ‘This is an embarrassment.’ I think that pretty much sums it up. Bright moments for each candidate that were lost amid the continued drone of schoolyard taunts.” Another just lamented, “We are a clown car and it is being driven off the cliff at an alarming speed.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted February 25-26.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Detroit, Mich., Fox News Republican Debate (March 3, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
