Insiders Poll: Who won the Tenth Republican debate?
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Rubio's big night
February 26, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Republican politicians are hoping that someone will be able to thwart Donald Trump’s march to the GOP presidential nomination and party insiders believe that in the February 25 debate in Houston, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio stepped into the ring and landed punches.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 100 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives on the debate and 80 GOP Insiders who responded overwhelmingly said Rubio was the “biggest winner” of the debate.
“He took the fight to Trump while still looking presidential,” said one GOP Insider. Echoed another, “He came out swinging and proved he is the best candidate to lead the GOP.”
Some Republicans felt Rubio dominated Trump to such a degree that he made Texas Sen. Ted Cruz seem like an afterthought in the debate. “Rubio turned Trump into an orange-coiffed punching bag while Cruz mostly looked on,” noted one GOP Insider. “Rubio was the man tonight, but it won't make any difference with Trump folks; they only see what they want to see,” said another. “Amazing that Cruz almost disappeared.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders.
Several Republican Insiders cheered the Floridian’s aggressiveness. “Rubio verbally disemboweled Trump on stage tonight,” declared one GOP Insider. Another observed, “Rubio went after Trump like a Krav Maga instructor goes after a mugger.” They also wondered why they hadn’t seen this more combative candidate in previous debates. “Where the hell was that in New Hampshire?” asked one GOP Insider. “He was Super Marco, why did it take so long?” seconded another. “Made Trump look like a befuddled nursing home patient.”
Ohio Gov. John Kasich was a distant runner-up to Rubio, but he earned praise for his sober performance. “It took a while but when the adult got his chance he was his best yet,” said one GOP Insider who felt Kasich won the night. “The Apple [cellphone] answer was the highlight of the night.” Another said Kasich was “most ready to be president.”
Not surprisingly, nine-out-of-ten GOP Insiders judged that Rubio had helped himself. Likewise, almost six-out-of-ten Republicans said Trump hurt himself. More than one-third said that Kasich had helped himself and about four-in-ten Republican Insiders said that Cruz had hurt himself.
“Marco needed a big night, and he got one,” said one GOP Insider. “You could almost see the asterisk over Carson’s and Kasich’s heads.” Another Republican underscored the difficulty Carson and Kasich had in breaking into the conversation. “Short of setting themselves on fire Kasich and Carson can't be taken seriously,” observed another. “Rubio gave donors something to believe in.” One Republican influential maintained, “Trump [was] good on defense sometimes, but [had] some very bad moments with Rubio: not badly hurt but vulnerability established.” But another plaintively asked,” Trump is the emperor with no clothes but how many voters have eyes?”
Democratic Insiders, who can have a more detached view of the Republican presidential race, also thought Rubio had a good night. A plurality of the 40 Democrats who responded, 40 percent, said that Rubio was the biggest winner of the debate. But just over a quarter of the Democratic Insiders said that Trump prevailed and a quarter said Kasich won the debate.
“Rubio is better at debating than his opponents, though Trump was the only real story so it remains to be seen if anyone else really got helped,” said one Democratic Insider. “Finally, he took it to Donald Trump, and effectively,” said another.
Some Democratic Insiders reasoned that while Trump was a target for his rivals in the debate, he was also the focus of the two-hour slugfest and thus still benefited. “It was all about Trump so he truly won,” opined one Democratic Insider. “Cruz and Rubio looked like little boys trying to a track him. Kasich was above the fray and the only legit presidential candidate up there, but this electorate doesn’t care and Trump ultimately helped himself.” Another noted, “Until there is proof that these debates do anything to dent Trump, its a win for Trump.”
While Rubio won a lot of plaudits, some GOP Insiders also wondered what impact that will have on Super Tuesday’s voting. Rubio was, “calm, confident and in command of issues,” said one Insider. “We'll see if it translates at the ballot box.” Another simply said, “Rubio won, but not sure it matters.” And a third added, “We'll see if it is enough, but at least Rubio grew a pair against the Donald.”
This is not the first time that Republican Insiders have awarded a debate night to establishment candidates. After the February 13 debate in Greenville, South Carolina, almost half of the GOP Insiders surveyed by Ballotpedia said that Rubio was the “biggest winner” of the debate and another third said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush carried that debate. Five days later, South Carolina’s voters went to the polls and gave Trump a 10 percentage-point victory in that state’s GOP presidential primary over Rubio. Bush finished a distant fourth in the balloting and withdrew from the race.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted February 25-26.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Houston CNN/Telemundo Republican Debate (February 25, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
