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Insiders Poll: Who won the Twelfth Republican debate?
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Ballotpedia's scope changes periodically, and this article type is no longer actively created or maintained. If you would like to help our coverage grow, consider donating to Ballotpedia.
Rubio returns to form, but will it matter?
March 11, 2016
By James A. Barnes
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio retuned to his winning form of earlier Republican presidential debates—thoughtful, optimistic and occasionally eloquent. The Floridian’s performance, indeed the entire tone of the March 10 GOP faceoff hosted by CNN at the University of Miami, was a marked departure from the last two GOP encounters which were more akin to political food fights than a forum for serious White House candidates.
In a survey of more than 90 Republican and Democratic political insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—a solid plurality of the 64 Republicans who responded to the survey, said Rubio was the “biggest winner” of the debate. Another 27 percent said that billionaire developer and GOP frontrunner Donald Trump carried the night.
“He sounded and looked like a potential President tonight, first time in a month,” declared one GOP Insiders who thought Rubio was the debate’s biggest winner. “Rubio hit the substance better than he ever has done,” said another Republican influential. “Plus, he avoided this previous third grade insult party he started last debate.” And a third added, “Rubio was far more substantive that anyone else on stage. [Texas Sen. Ted] Cruz had some similar strong answers and they weren’t too different on policy, but Rubio had more depth and knowledge in his answers, as well as more spirit and energy in his delivery.”
Indeed, this was the old Rubio, whom Republican Insiders have awarded the blue ribbon to in most of the previous GOP debates. The question GOP Insiders pondered was whether Rubio can reestablish his image as the next-generation-optimistic-thoughtful White House contender in time for the Florida primary that is less than a week away. Rubio admitted at an MSNBC-hosed town hall on Wednesday that he regretted trying to trade insults with Trump on the campaign stump recently. Now he must win his home state’s primary on March 15, where he trails in the polls, in order to rebuild momentum for his candidacy.
“The real question is whether this polished performance was ‘too little, too late,’” said one Republican Insider. “The voters of Florida will determine that on Tuesday.”
Some Republicans were skeptical that Rubio’s efforts will matter. “Another compelling adult performance [by Rubio] and it won’t make a dime’s worth of difference,” opined one GOP Insider. “Country is receiving on a different frequency.” Another echoed that it was “not even close,” that Rubio had won the debate, but added that his performance was “not even remotely a factor for next Tuesday.” This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
And in another break with form, Trump acted like a frontrunner for the first time in the primary debate season. For once, he did not respond with insults and attacks when his rivals occasionally prodded him. He largely stayed above the fray, and deflected criticism, just like a veteran candidate who was leading a race would. “Trump won because he took the slow approach, running out the clock,” observed one GOP Insider, who judged Trump as the debate’s biggest winner. Added another, “Debate did little to change status quo, which increasingly favors Trump.”
Trump was also seen as the debate’s winner because the others on the stage weren’t at the top of their game. “Kasich disappeared, Rubio [was] fine but irrelevant, Cruz resigned to having a bad night at the wrong time, Trump prevailed,” argued one Republican Insider. “Rubio was the best, but too little, too late, so Trump is real winner,” said another.
Indeed, with so much on the line in the five-state primary bonanza on March 15, and Trump’s momentum unchecked after winning three-out-of-four primary and caucus contests on March 8, some Insiders thought all of his opponents lacked a sense urgency. “What the hell?” asked one GOP Insider, “Is everybody running for the Cabinet?” Another simply described the debate as a “snooze-fest.”
Others disagreed with that characterization. And some thought Cruz had a good night, laying the groundwork for when he hopes to get into a one-on-one fight with Trump for the GOP nomination. “All four were pretty good but Cruz scored points that may matter when Rubio is out,” noted one Republican. Another said of the Texan, “He is shifting from polarizing rhetoric to that which can appeal to mainstream Republicans. Prosecuted the case against Trump effectively. I’m not a fan, but he did well.”
Also seen playing for time, was Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “He needed to prove he wasn’t the next person off the island after Marco,” said a Republican Insider who thought Kasich won the debate. “And tonight he bought himself a bit more time.”
Democratic Insiders saw the debate a bit differently from their Democratic counterparts. Among the 33 who responded to this survey, a solid plurality, 45 percent, thought Trump carried the evening. But many of their observations were the similar to those of their GOP counterparts.
Trump “once again dictated the tone of the debate,” said one Democrat. “He decided it would be more positive and it was. Someone needed to go hard after Trump and none of them did.” Seconded another, “Trump wins because it was totally uneventful.” And a third simply said, “Trump went in with the lead, and came out with lead.” And a fourth opined, “Donald Trump is like Goldilocks; the other three candidates just can’t find the balance, either too hot or too cold.”
The prospect of a Trump nomination has many Democrats salivating, but not all. “This man could be president—a terrifying thought,” said one influential Democrat. “His answers still lack any substance, but he played the part tonight acting out his vision of ‘presidential,’” said another. “God help us all.”
Another 30 percent of the Democratic Insiders thought Rubio was the debate’s biggest winner. “Good substance, forward-thinking, felt more confident,” assessed on Democrat. “Clearly more comfortable on his own turf with good quips. Not that it will matter much.” Another noted, “He is a desperate candidate but contained himself and got in some good arguments.”
One Democratic Insider joked, “Did ‘The Don’ play too much golf prior to the debate? He had no energy.” And a Republican mused about the sedate debate, “The mere fact Trump had to mention people were being civil in the first 30 minutes should have told you this wasn’t going to be a nail biter.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted March 10-11.
See also
- March 15 presidential primary elections and caucuses, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Miami CNN Republican Debate (March 10, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
