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Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the fifth Republican debate
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GOP Insiders: Rubio, Bush and Christie Shine on Vegas Strip
December 15, 2015 (Updated on December 16, 2015 at 12:07 pm EST)
By James A. Barnes
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio turned in another credible debate showing, but New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also took advantage of his return to the main GOP debate stage and former Florida Gov. Jeb Brush turned in the kind of performance that many had been waiting for. In a survey of Republican political Insiders by Ballotpedia, 31 percent judged Rubio to be the “biggest winner” of the December 15 GOP presidential debate in Las Vegas conducted by CNN, while 21 percent awarded that title to Christie, and 21 percent gave the nod to Bush.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 130 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives after the debate concluded: 90 Republicans responded and 43 Democrats participated. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders.
“Rubio was very good under fire tonight,” said one GOP Insider. “Strong, sure, comfortable in his own skin, not cocky,” added another. “An especially sharp contrast to Trump,” maintained a third GOP Insider. “Rubio showed he is ready to be Commander-in-Chief.”
But Rubio was hardly the runaway favorite in this debate that he was in Milwaukee on November 10, when 60% of the Republican Insiders said he was the “biggest winner.”
Christie won plaudits as well. “Voters want someone who is tough, tough on ISIS, tough on Hillary,” observed a GOP Insider. “Christie was tough without seeming shrill.” Another Republican noted that the focus on terrorism worked to Christie’s advantage: “Subject matter in his wheelhouse. Jeb and Rubio also strong.”
Bush, whose performances in previous debates have earned poor reviews, was seen as a contender at last. “Finally, a decent performance and an effective exchange or two with Trump,” said one GOP Insider. “Where was this Jeb Bush when we needed him and when he needed to be here?” Another Republican echoed that Bush, “finally showed up.”
While maintaining Bush had a good night, one GOP Insider wondered whether it was good enough: “Winner is a loose term. Jeb scored more points but when your [sic] down more than twenty points at halftime of the ball game you need to score and score heavily,” explained the GOP influential. “He didn’t.”
Singling out a debate victor is not an easy task, even for political insiders like these. “Hard to pick just one because there were a number of strong performances, but given the poor showing to date in debates, Bush team had to be encouraged tonight,” explained one Republican Insider.
Democratic Insiders gave the nod to billionaire developer and celebrity Donald Trump. Among that group, 33 percent thought Trump had won the evening, followed closely by 26 percent who believed Rubio had the best night and 16 percent who felt that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz performed best.
“No one landed a glove on the huge front runner,” said one Democratic Insider. “He’s Teflon Don!” exclaimed another. Indeed, when a front-runner in the polls gets through a debate without any major stumble, that candidate is frequently viewed as having won the encounter since there was no apparent blow to his (or her) momentum.
But Democrats also acknowledged Rubio’s Las Vegas performance. “He is not only articulate, but smart,” said one Democratic Insider. “You can see him becoming the consensus candidate to beat Trump.” Another noted, “He continues to impress with his understanding of the issues and ability to articulate a cogent point of view in response to any question.”
Carson, biggest loser
The “biggest loser” on the debate strip was retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, although here too, the results were not clear-cut. While 30 percent of the Republicans thought Carson had the worst night, 18 percent saw Trump as the “biggest loser in the debate, followed by Rand Paul, 14 percent; John Kasich, 11 percent; and Cruz, 10 percent.
“For Dr. Carson, reciting facts about current events is not a demonstration of a grasp of the impact of those events,” said one GOP Insider. “Continued to demonstrate his lack of depth on foreign policy,” said another. “Wonderful man, but not a Commander-in-Chief,” added a third.
While Republicans responding in public opinion polls haven’t punished Trump so far for his broad-brush pronouncements on policy matters, Republican Insiders want to hear more in debates. “Showed very clearly he has no substance and now his style is wearing thin,” asserted one GOP Insider. “Yet again, a complete failure to offer any specifics,” echoed another.
Democrats had a slightly different take. Although 21 percent felt that Carson was the “biggest loser” at the Las Vegas debate, another 19 percent thought Bush turned in the worst performance. Of Carson, one Democratic Insider repeated the frequent GOP critique: “He confirmed that he is not ready to be Commander-in-Chief.”
But the Democratic criticism of Bush was withering at times. “As a Floridian, I can tell you he won reelection on the strength of his debate performances,” said one Democratic Insider. “That Jeb is hiding somewhere. This Jeb is rusty, halting and wholly unprepared.” Another said, “Bush doesn't even look like he belongs up there. He just looks lost.” And like some Republicans, one Democratic Insider thought that a stronger showing from Bush is what’s required to get back into serious contention for the GOP nomination: “He needed a big night; simply didn’t get it. He didn’t do poorly, it’s just that he needed to put points on the board and did not.”
But the views of Democrats are not what counts right now in the Republican presidential race and Bush did surprisingly well among GOP Insiders when they were asked: “On balance, do you think the following candidates helped themselves with this debate, hurt themselves, or neither?” Nearly three-quarters of the Republican Insiders, 73 percent, said that Bush had helped himself. And while that very narrowly trailed Christie’s mark of 76 percent, it was a higher “helped” rating—by far—than Bush has scored in any of the previous four GOP debates. Summing the candidates’ outings, one GOP Insiders observed: “Bush gave best performance, but has to ditch the specs; Trump was tinny; Christie called people out with gusto and Rubio acted like the Commander-in-Chief.”
And the GOP candidate that Democrats consider a threat in a general election face-off with Hillary Clinton? That continues to be Rubio, by a fairly commanding margin: fully half said the Florida Senator would give her the “toughest challenge” in general election debates. “He can come close to match her intellectually and is articulate in his message contrast with Dems,” said one Democratic Insider. “He presents a fresh face appears to be future oriented, even though he is a neocon by nature,” explained another. “Rubio is still potentially the toughest opponent, especially as Kasich and Bush have stumbled,” said a third Democrat. “Smooth on the stump and likable, the youthful contrast would play for some younger Democratic votes.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Las Vegas, Nevada CNN/Salem Republican debate (December 15, 2015)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
