Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the fourth Democratic debate
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Democratic Insiders: Hillary dominates Charleston debate
January 18, 2016
By James A. Barnes
As she has done in the past, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dominated the January 17, 2016, Democratic presidential primary debate in Charleston, S.C., in the eyes of Democratic Party Insiders. In a Ballotpedia survey of nearly 100 Democratic and Republican Party political operatives, an overwhelming 78 percent of Democrats said she was the "biggest winner" of the debate. Not much has changed since the first Democratic debate on October 13, 2015, when a whopping 89 percent said she prevailed in that face-off.
Among the 73 Democratic Insiders—party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives—who responded to the survey, Clinton’s frontrunner status was reaffirmed. “Hillary looked confident and in charge,” said one Democratic Insider. “She held her own on economy and excelled on foreign policy,” said another. “Support for Obama’s Affordable Care Act wise and practical,” added a third. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders in both parties.
For Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the 22 percent who thought he won the night was an improvement over that first debate when only nine percent thought he prevailed in that encounter. “Bernie took some hits on guns, but he hit back on health care and Wall Street very effectively,” said one Democratic Insider. “Sanders was better tonight than in past debates and looked good on the health care questions,” said one Democratic Insider. “Clinton is generally the better debater but Sanders appeals to the base more.”
“Bernie had a good night, but didn't change the race, hence it is a win for HRC,” reasoned one Democratic Insider, who said Clinton had won the debate. Echoed another Democratic Insider who felt Clinton had carried the evening, “Senator Sanders clearly won the debate, but Secretary Clinton came across as presidential, cool, a fighter, and ‘likable enough’ to be president.” While those two sentiments—praising Sander’s performance, but saying Clinton nonetheless carried the evening—appear contradictory, they are consistent with the logic that party elites often use when judging a presidential primary debate: If the frontrunner emerges from a candidate face-off without any serious wounds, that person is viewed as the “winner,” even if an opponent may have turned in a better performance, because the debate didn’t dramatically alter the dynamics of the nomination contest.
Party elites also often favor a more pragmatic approach to governing and that was a prism through which some Democratic Insiders view debates and this nominating contest. “Secretary Clinton offers thoughtful, practical means to address a range of the challenges facing the country, while Senator Sanders continues to offer pipe dreams that have no chance of becoming law,” maintained on Democratic Insider. Added another, “If you have been a Socialist or a Democrat in a largely Democratic state, you haven't learned how to be a consensus-builder. Hillary has.”
Only 25 GOP responded to the survey, and that is a small sample size upon which to draw too many conclusions. With that cautionary note, these Republican Insiders had a distinctly different view of the Democratic debate: 88 percent thought Sanders had won the debate. To some Republicans, Sanders wins by going toe-to-toe with a frontrunner like Clinton. “Bernie won merely because Hillary let him be a player in this race,” said one GOP Insider. “It was hers to win.” Another maintained, “Hillary went after him, legitimizing him across the country.” And a third wondered, “HRC is on the ropes, does Bernie have the stomach to go in for the knock out?”
Other Republicans gave Sanders credit for pushing the discussion in the Democratic contest. “The Vermonter is driving the train,” said one GOP Insider. “Bernie cleaned up nice and gave the Progressive zealots a night on the town,” added another.
Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley was seen as the “biggest loser” of the Charleston debate. That can be the Insiders’ verdict on a candidate who is trailing badly in the polls. Even among those who gave him favorable reviews, many Democratic Insiders nonetheless feel he just can’t catch on with enough Democratic primary voters to make an impact on the race. “O'Malley was the best I have seen him, but it's too little too late,” said one. “Martin O'Malley was very good tonight when given a chance to speak and it won't move him to five percent [in the polls],” echoed another.
“He should stop taking cheap shots,” said a Democratic Insider who thought Clinton had won the debate. “It's not like he has any chance at all.” And a Democratic influential who thought Sanders had won the debate chastised O’Malley, asking, “What is he doing? What is the purpose of his candidacy?”
Many Democratic Insiders who supported Clinton also felt that Sanders’s passion came across as angry. “Bernie was so angry; is that a Socialist thing?” chided one Democratic elite. “Sanders acts like the angry old man getting kids off his lawn,” jabbed another.
But Clinton had her style critics as well. “Hillary was yelling too much and overly aggressive reflecting her anxiety about Iowa and New Hampshire,” professed one Democratic Insider. “She needs to be more conversational and lower her decibel level.”
Watching the debate, it seemed at times as though the former Maryland governor who trails in the polls was almost an afterthought, so Ballotpedia asked the Democratic Insiders a simple question: “Do you think the debate was fair to Martin O’Malley?” By a solid 60 percent to 40 percent ratio, the Democratic Insiders said it was. However, by some key metrics in this Ballotpedia analysis, it wasn’t.
The amount of time that both Clinton and Sanders spoke was roughly double the amount of time that O’Malley spoke. Moreover, when the interactions between the moderators and the candidates were analyzed, both Clinton and Sanders were prompted by the moderators to speak on a topic more than twice as often as O’Malley was. More often than not, O’Malley was forced to interrupt to inject his views on debate topics, whereas Clinton and Sanders were almost always prompted by the moderators to share their views on a point of discussion.
For Democratic Insiders who said O’Malley had been treated fairly, the primary rationale they cited was his weakness in the polls—even if they differed on his exact standing. “He’s at 3 percent,” said one Democrat. “Just being on the stage was more than fair.” Another echoed, “He got more than fair treatment for someone at four percent in the polls; lucky to be up there.” And a third said, “He's at six percent in the polls—we need to hear from the real candidates.”
Some Democratic Insiders seemed to feel that O’Malley should just be grateful he got an invite to the prime time event. “They let him get on stage,” said one. “He had time to introduce himself and his vision,” said another. The lesson here may be: when you’re way behind in the polls, don’t expect a lot of sympathy from party professionals.
But a substantial minority, two out of five, disagreed and felt the debate was not fair to O’Malley. “I think if he were given equal time, he'd have much higher poll numbers,” said one Democratic Insider. “The media is trying to cut him out.” Another Democrat, concurred, saying, “Elite media behavior disgraceful.” And a third Democrat said, “Didn't give him an equal opportunity.”
All of those comments quoted above came from Democratic Insiders who said that Clinton had won the debate. However, among all 56 Democratic Insiders who said Clinton won the debate, 64 percent said the debate had been fair to O’Malley, and 36 percent said it wasn’t.
Insiders who said Sanders won the debate also had mixed views on whether O’Malley got a fair shake. “No, but he probably got more airtime proportionate to his poll numbers,” replied one Democrat. “Don't know why they did not give O'Malley equal time.” Said another Democrat. “With only 3 candidates, there was no need to do that.” And a third said, “O'Malley got fewer questions and almost no redirect answers,” noted another. “Of course he has had 6 months to improve his standing to the point where he would get those questions, so it is possible his own fault.”
Overall, among the 16 Democratic Insiders who said Sanders had won the debate, they split 50-50 on whether O’Malley got fair treatment in the debate. Perhaps this is empathy from those supporting another underdog.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- North Charleston, South Carolina Fox Business Republican debate (January 14, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
