Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the fourth Republican debate
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Insiders: Rubio Has Another Good Debate
November 10, 2015 (Updated on November 11, 2015 at 12:07 pm EST)
By James A. Barnes
In what is becoming a pattern, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had another good debate. And after underwhelming performances in the last two Republican encounters, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush turned in a debate that heartened his supporters. In a survey of more than 120 Republican and Democratic political Insiders surveyed by Ballotpedia, more than half judged Rubio to be the “biggest winner” of the November 10 Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee conducted by Fox Business and The Wall Street Journal.
Ballotpedia surveyed 122 Republican and Democratic strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest groups operatives after the debate concluded: 73 Republicans responded and 49 Democrats participated. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Insiders. As political professionals, Insiders frequently view events like debates through a similar prism—at least on the main result: three out of five GOP Insiders, 60 percent, and a strong plurality of Democratic Insiders, 46 percent, said Rubio was the “biggest winner.”
“He once again showed that he can win a debate while retaining likability,” said one GOP Insider. Rubio’s “message is compelling, well-delivered, and capable of winning primaries,” said another. “Not his strongest debate, but was once again stronger than all others on that stage,” said a third GOP Insider.
Another 17 percent of the GOP Insiders thought that Bush was the “biggest winner” of the Milwaukee event. To Bush’s fans, it was a reassuring performance that is something they can rally around and one that they hope will change the negative narrative swirling around his campaign. “He had the most riding on a strong performance and he delivered one,” maintained one GOP Insider. “At a minimum, he bought himself more time to reset and advance.” Another observed, “Jeb was the real Jeb tonight, the leader Floridians remember. Will calm the stories and gird them for the grinding campaigning to come.” A third GOP said that Bush “showed a pulse, lost the Bush-speak and he stood up straight.”
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was judged by nine percent of the Republican Insiders to have won the night. “Her specifics on foreign policy were a devastating contrast to the bumbling of [Donald] Trump,” said one GOP Insider. “Striking a chord on big government and crony capitalism,” maintained GOP Influential.
Democratic Insiders also saw Rubio as the Republican who continues to rise. “Once again he was assertive, knowledgeable and earned the right to be taken seriously,” said one Democratic Insider. “He was polished and smooth,” echoed another Democrat. And a third shared an assessment that becoming a something of refrain among Democrats: “Marco Rubio was the bright star on the stage. He presented a compelling, albeit conservative, vision for the future. He would be a tough out for Democrats if he survives the primaries.”
Some Democratic Insiders felt that developer Donald Trump was the “biggest winner” because his position on immigration—which they strongly disagree with—stood out on the Republican stage in Milwaukee. “While Trump was off base on his immigration position, his view is aligned with at least 40 percent of Republicans which should allow him to stay in first place,” noted one Democratic Insider. “He locked in himself as the anti-immigration candidate,” echoed another.
Democrats also thought Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had a good night. “Nobody ran away with this debate, but Cruz is very good in this format, as is Rubio,” said one Democratic influential. “But Cruz is getting well-positioned to take advantage of the [GOP] environment should [Ben] Carson and, or, Trump falter.
Kasich, biggest loser
On the other side of the ledger, a majority, 54 percent, of the Republican Insiders thought that Ohio Gov. John Kasich was the “biggest loser” of the debate. Many gave him low marks on style. “Kasich was unrelentingly annoying,” said one GOP Insider. “Petulant is not a winning strategy,” echoed another. “He was irritating and condescending even when he was right,” added a third. And some Republicans also felt that Kasich may be at odds with the base of his party. “Further alienated GOP base with multiple answers that were out of step with most conservatives,” maintained a GOP influential. This survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Bush and developer Donald Trump were distant runner-ups to Kasich for having a bad night: 15 percent said Bush was “biggest loser” in the Milwaukee debate, and another 11 percent gave Trump that award. For Bush, who was the frontrunner early on in the GOP nominating contest, Republican Insiders felt that the former Florida governor needed a better night to revive his campaign. “He did OK, but OK is a big loss for him, ” maintained one GOP Insider. “He needed more than a couple of decent answers and his whining about time is weak sauce,” said another.
Trump was criticized for his style. “Everyone else is maturing except Trump,” said one GOP Insider. “His bluster now appears to be merely a lack of sophistication.” Another judged, “Other than insulting Carly [Fiorina], barely there.”
Democrats were divided on who the biggest loser of the Milwaukee debate was: 27 percent said Bush and 25 percent said Kasich. “Bush just isn’t brash enough to stand out in this crowd,” said one Democratic Insider. “Bush is over,” declared another. “It's time to think about the cool things he can do instead.”
On Kasich, Democrats wonder whether the most moderate sounding candidate can thrive among Republican rank-and-file primary voters. “He is officially the [Jon] Huntsman of the [2016] cycle,” observed one Democratic Insider. “Just can’t break through,” said another.
Democrats also gave a low score to child neurosurgeon Ben Carson and 18 percent said he was the “biggest loser” of the GOP debate. “The guy doesn't know what to say on policy,” said one Democratic Insider. “He keeps showing he has no reason to be on that stage and his complete ignorance of foreign policy and economic policy is astounding,” echoed another.
Rubio helped most, followed by Fiorina and Cruz
Another more nuanced way to assess the Republican contenders’ performance is to ask Insiders whether the candidates helped themselves in the debate, hurt themselves, or neither. Looking at the helped-hurt ratio as measured by the responses of Republican Insiders shows that four of the GOP White House hopefuls had a positive night, two were somewhat mixed, and two were clearly negative.
Not surprising, Rubio had the best ratio, 11-to-1 positive: 79 percent of the Republican Insiders said Rubio helped himself in the Milwaukee debate and only seven percent said he hurt himself (the rest said neither). Fiorina and Cruz were both four-to-one positive: Fiorina, 60 percent helped, 15 percent hurt; Cruz 55 percent helped, 13 percent hurt. Bush had a 2-to-1 positive ratio, 48 percent helped, 23 percent hurt.
The two mixed scores were given to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Carson: 37 percent of the GOP Insiders said Paul helped himself the debate, and 40 percent said he hurt himself. Carson’s rating dipped more into negative territory, but not overwhelmingly: 23 percent of the Republicans said the doctor helped himself, but 34 percent said he hurt himself in this debate.
Trump and Kasich fared poorly in the eyes of the Republican Insiders: only 12 percent said Trump helped himself, while 45 percent said he hurt himself. Kasich earned a 9-to-1 negative rating: eight percent said he helped himself, while 75 percent said he hurt himself. Little wonder he was judged by GOP Insiders to be the “biggest loser” of the debate.
Republicans think Christie belongs in the main event
And among the candidates who weren’t included, which one would Republicans liked to have been included in the main debate? New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Two-thirds of the GOP Insiders said they would have liked to seen him on the stage in Milwaukee. “Main stage lost something without him,” said one GOP Insider. “Kasich tried to take advantage of Christie not being there—swing and a miss.” Another Republican declared, “He belongs on the big stage. None of the others really do. It is time to end the kiddie table.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted November 10-11, 2015.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin Fox Business/Wall Street Journal Republican debate (November 10, 2015)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
