Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the sixth Republican debate
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GOP Insiders: Rubio wins, Trump gets a nod
January 15, 2016
By James A. Barnes
It’s not unusual for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio to receive positive reviews from Republican political operatives for a debate performance and he got them again last night. What is unusual is for those same GOP elites to give Donald Trump, the brash billionaire who has thrown the Republican establishment into a collective cold sweat with his bid the party’s presidential nomination, a favorable nod.
In a survey of more than 70 Republican political Insiders surveyed by Ballotpedia, 41 percent thought Rubio was the “biggest winner” of the sixth Republican presidential primary debate in North Charleston, S.C., conducted by Fox Business Network. Another 19 percent thought that former Gov. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush earned that distinction. But close behind, 16 percent thought that Trump was the best in show in this first GOP presidential debate of 2016. What’s notable is that in previous GOP face-offs, Trump’s contributions have been barely acknowledged Republican Insiders: in the last GOP debate in Las Vegas only three percent thought he had won that encounter. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were each judged to have been the biggest winner by nine percent of the GOP Insiders.
“Trump was strong, plain and simple,” said one GOP Insider. “Cruz showed his glass jaw in his exchange with Trump, where his "New York values" hit on Trump was effectively counterpunched with a tribute to the heroes of 9/11,” said another. Such compliments from Republican Insiders for Trump have been rare.
Still, Rubio maintained his standing and the party’s premier debater. “Rubio was scrappy and looking prepared, hungry for a fight, and rocking a 5 o'clock shadow,” observed one GOP Insider. “Rubio was better than the two people he needed to best—Cruz and Bush, both of whom did well, but not well enough,” said another GOP influential. He “showed steely resolve on every issue,” added a third.
While he was tenacious in the debate, some thought Rubio’s manner was a little excessive. “Marco needs to back off the speed,” one GOP Insider said: “Too much too fast.”
Who had an off night? Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson: at times he seemed like an asterisk in the debate. Almost half of the GOP Insiders, 45 percent, said he was the “biggest loser” in the debate. “Carson had no business being on that stage,” maintained one GOP Insider. “Carly” Fiorina deserved to be in his place and Rand Paul also deserved a spot in this debate.” Echoed another, “Carly and Rand got cut so Carson could be there? Simply not qualified.” Added a third, “Carson is the incredible shrinking candidate. It is over for him.”
Another indicator of Trump’s solid showing, can be found in responses of 75 Republican Insiders who were asked whether the candidates helped or hurt themselves in the debate.
Not surprisingly, three-out-of-five of the GOP Insiders (61 percent) judged that Rubio had helped himself. Nearly as many, 57 percent, said that the same thing about Christie, as did 44 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Cruz. All of this is consistent with the trend of recent GOP debates: Rubio tends to shine, while Christie, Cruz and Bush have their moments (and the former Florida Governor remains a favorite of many party insiders, even though his popularity among rank-and-file Republican voters has ebbed).
But for Thursday night’s encounter, 39 percent of GOP Insiders said Trumped had helped himself as well, compared to 22 percent who said he’d hurt himself and 39 percent who said the former reality TV star had neither helped nor hurt himself in the debate.
That is a relatively modest showing compared to Rubio or Christie, but remarkably strong compared to the Insiders’ assessment of Trump in previous debates. For instance, in the last GOP debate December 15 Las Vegas debate, only 15 percent of the Republican Insiders surveyed said that Trump had helped himself with his performance, while 51 percent said he had hurt himself. In the November 10 debate in Milwaukee, also hosted by Fox Business, 12 percent said Trump had been helped and 45 percent said he’d been hurt. It’s too soon to tell whether Trump is actually gaining acceptance from the very type of Republican Insiders he delights in confounding and tweaking. But, this may be an indicator that they’re acknowledging his candidacy and treating it seriously.
Democratic Insiders judged Trump to be the clear winner. Only 29 responded, but they overwhelming—66 percent—said Trump was the biggest winner. “I can’t stand Trump,” confessed one Democratic Insider, “but he was surprisingly human in his response about ‘New York values.’ With less than three weeks until the votes start counting, he did well.” Another echoed, “Trump held his ground and his response to ‘New York values’ put that slam to rest.” And a third Democratic Insider maintained, “He isn't going away. He is appealing to the voter that wants to say Merry Christmas, not filter every word and believes this country is too politically correct.”
At the same time, a plurality, 41 percent, still believes that Rubio is the GOP candidate who would their nominee the most trouble. Their runner-up on this question was Trump.
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov.
See also
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the sixth Republican debate
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- North Charleston, South Carolina Fox Business Republican debate (January 14, 2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
