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Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 16, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
David Young (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Voting in Iowa
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+1
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Iowa's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th
Iowa elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Small business owner Cindy Axne (D) defeated incumbent Rep. David Young (R) and four other candidates in the race for Iowa's 3rd District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Young was first elected in 2014 and won re-election by 13 points in 2016. Although President Trump (R) won this district by three points in 2016, Obama won it by four points in 2012. Political forecasters considered this election to be competitive.

Third-party and independent candidates included Paul Knupp (G), Mark G. Elworth Jr. (Legal Medical Now Party), Bryan Holder (L), and Joe Grandanette (Independent).

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Iowa District 3

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. House Iowa District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Cindy Axne
Cindy Axne (D)
 
49.3
 
175,642
Image of David Young
David Young (R)
 
47.1
 
167,933
Image of Bryan Holder
Bryan Holder (L)
 
2.0
 
7,267
Image of Mark Elworth Jr.
Mark Elworth Jr. (Legal Medical Now Party)
 
0.6
 
2,015
Image of Paul Knupp
Paul Knupp (G)
 
0.5
 
1,888
Image of Joe Grandanette
Joe Grandanette (Independent)
 
0.4
 
1,301
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
195

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 356,241
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Iowa District 3

Cindy Axne defeated Eddie Mauro and Pete D'Alessandro in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Iowa District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Cindy Axne
Cindy Axne
 
58.0
 
32,910
Image of Eddie Mauro
Eddie Mauro
 
26.4
 
15,006
Image of Pete D'Alessandro
Pete D'Alessandro
 
15.6
 
8,874

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 56,790
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Iowa District 3

Incumbent David Young advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Iowa District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of David Young
David Young
 
100.0
 
21,712

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 21,712
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Analysis

Axne became the sixth U.S. House candidate in Iowa to win an election without a majority of the vote in elections from 1940 through 2018. She won 49.0 percent of the vote, marking the lowest amount of support for a winner in the state since 1992.[1]

Between 1878 and 1916, 39 of 225 general and special elections for the U.S. House in Iowa resulted in a plurality winner. In 1912, George C. Scott (R) won with the lowest amount of support ever recorded in the state: 40.5 percent.[1]

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Cindy Axne, small business owner
Cindy.Axne.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Axne graduated from the University of Iowa and earned an M.B.A. from the Kellogg School at Northwestern University. She worked for the State of Iowa from 2005 to 2014 and has also worked in various capacities as a political activist. Axne was a small business owner running a digital design firm at the time of the general election.[2]

Key messages
  • Axne said that if elected, her top priority would be providing Iowa families with well-paying jobs. She added that she would "level the playing field by raising wages, addressing unfair trade deals that put our workers at risk, protecting our unions and promoting Main Street over Wall Street."[2]
  • Axne stated she would "fight to maintain and improve the Affordable Care Act and stop House Republicans from allowing the return of lifetime limits, make sure that people cannot be discriminated against for having a pre-existing condition and lower costs including prescription drugs."[2]
  • Axne listed protecting public schools, passing a bipartisan immigration bill, and protecting Iowa's farms and rural communities as among campaign priorities.[2]



David Young, U.S. Representative
David Young Iowa.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. House, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District (Assumed office: 2014)

Biography: Young briefly attended Buena Vista University before enrolling in Drake University.[3] He graduated from Drake and spent one year as a manager loan trainee at Norwest Financial. He also spent one year as a development officer at the Media Research Center before serving as a legislative aide for Sen. Jim Bunning (R) from 1998 to 2006. Young was chief of staff for Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) from 2006 to 2013.

Key messages
  • Young said he first ran for Congress because of Iowans' concerns about "burdensome regulations, the skyrocketing national debt, long-term unemployment, and the mounting government scandals."[4]
  • Young stated he "will hold government from both parties accountable as he fights for a transparent government that works better for Iowa and for America."[5]
  • Young's campaign website also highlighted strengthening the economy and jobs, improving healthcare and lowering costs, and keeping America's promises to seniors as priorities.[6]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Cindy Axne David YoungUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 25-27, 2018		The New York Times 43%41%11%+/-4.6504
NYT Upshot/Siena College
September 26–30, 2018		The New York Times 44%43%13%+/-4.6502
DCCC Analytics
September 4–5, 2018		None 46%43%11%+/-4.1575
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Cindy Axne Democratic Party $5,243,412 $5,223,873 $19,539 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[7][8][9]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The House Majority PAC spent about $195,000 on an ad against Young and announced that it had reserved $800,000 for ads against the incumbent through the general election.[12]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Iowa's 3rd Congressional District the 226th most Republican nationally.[13]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.00. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.00 points toward that party.[14]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Cindy Axne

Support

"Streamlined" - released October 5, 2018
"Success" - released September 11, 2018
"Efficient" - released August 22, 2018

Oppose

"Too Far" - released October 23, 2018
"Paul" - released September 27, 2018
"Iowa's Economy" - released September 27, 2018
"180921" - released September 24, 2018
"65%" - released September 20, 2018
"Way of Life" - released September 11, 2018

Republican Party David Young

Support

"The Omvigs" - released September 29, 2018
"Fighting for Veterans" - released September 17, 2018
"First Thing" - released August 29, 2018

Oppose

"Sausage" - released October 30, 2018
"Washington Tricks" - released October 16, 2018
"Truth" - released October 16, 2018
"Facts" - released October 2, 2018
"On The Line" - released September 28, 2018
"Deny" - released September 17, 2018

Debates and forums

October 7 debate

Axne, Young, and Holder answered questions about healthcare, the economy, and trade on October 7, 2018. Click here for coverage of the questions and their answers.

Campaign themes

The campaign themes below were taken from the candidates' 2018 campaign websites.

Cindy Axne

Growing Our Economy and Helping Families Succeed

When Cindy goes to Washington, her top priority will be putting Iowa families to work in good-paying jobs. She’ll level the playing field by raising wages, addressing unfair trade deals that put our workers at risk, protecting our unions and promoting Main Street over Wall Street.

For too long, Washington politicians have been putting partisan politics before Iowa families. Their failure to act has hurt the most vulnerable in our communities and hindered our small business owners and entrepreneurs from starting and growing businesses. As a small business owner, Cindy understands the challenges facing Iowans. Cindy will fight for our local businesses by creating grant programs to support entrepreneurs and small businesses and passing tax relief so our small businesses can grow.

Cindy will fight to pass equal pay legislation. Here in Iowa, women and their families are losing a combined income of nearly $5 billion each year. Cindy will also support a National Paid Family Leave Act, so no one risks losing a day’s pay to care for a sick child or loved one. And she’ll work to increase the availability of affordable childcare so working families can save for their children’s future.

Affordable, Effective Healthcare for All

Cindy was one of thousands of Iowans who received a letter from Aetna last year notifying her that her family would no longer be able to receive healthcare from the company. It was the third such letter in nearly four years each one forcing Cindy to scramble to find a new plan that they could afford, while the clock was ticking down on their coverage. Sadly, her family’s story is not unique. Every day, Cindy hears stories of families leaving their businesses for health insurance or families forced to move out of Iowa because they can no longer afford health insurance here.

In Congress, Cindy will fight for a real public option that allows Americans to choose between Medicare or Medicaid so that every American has the access to high quality affordable healthcare. Cindy will fight to maintain and improve the Affordable Care Act and stop House Republicans from allowing the return of lifetime limits, make sure that people cannot be discriminated against for having a pre-existing condition and lower costs including prescription drugs. Finally, Iowa ranks dead last for state psychiatric beds per capita, that’s unacceptable. That’s why Cindy will increase funding for our mental health facilities and work with partner organizations like the National Alliance on Mental Illness to address this crisis.

Protecting our Public Schools

As a mother of two sons in public schools, Cindy understands the importance of a high-quality education. It’s why she fought to pass all day public kindergarten in West Des Moines after finding out that West Des Moines’ lottery system meant that half the children in the community were denied access to all day public kindergarten and got two and a half hours of education instead. For America to continue to lead the way in the global economy it’s time we reinvest in our public-schools. We must prepare our children to compete in a global market by promoting STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) programs that enable students to graduate with the skills they need to be successful in today’s workforce.

Preparing the next generation for good-paying jobs that support a family requires providing young people with affordable access to community college, apprenticeships, trade schools or four-year colleges. Cindy will fight for a greater investment in our community colleges and grow apprenticeship programs and trade schools so that every student has the opportunity to succeed. She will work to expand Pell Grants and cap the interest rates on student loans so that Wall Street banks aren’t profiting by burdening young people with debt that will take them decades to repay.

Protecting Iowa’s Farms & Rural Communities

As a fifth-generation Iowan, with farm roots in Warren County, Cindy understands the importance of our rural areas. In Congress, she will fight to rebuild our infrastructure, grow our rural economies, protect our farmers and maintain our rural quality of life. Cindy will stand up for Iowa’s family farms and that starts by ensuring the Farm Bill works for all farmers including new farmers and small to mid-size farms.

For our rural communities to be competitive, we must reinvest in a solid infrastructure. That means repairing our roads and nearly 5,000 structurally deficient bridges, water and sewer systems, and finally making sure that everyone has access to cellular and broadband technology. Not only will that fix our infrastructure, but it will create thousands of jobs in the process.

Iowa can be the leader in sustainable agriculture and renewable energy. While Cindy was at the State of Iowa, she oversaw the Governor’s Agenda on Clean Energy and the Environment, helping bring the wind industry to scale in Iowa. In Congress, Cindy will fight to increase research and development in the areas of soil health, carbon sequestration and water quality to clean up our water, improve soil for better yields and create jobs in the process.

In order to protect our rural quality of life. Cindy will fight to protect Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates, so our rural hospitals can continue to operate and serve those who are at risk. She will fight for funding for our public schools, so they can retain quality educators, keep up with technology, and bring in more trades programs for our children. She’ll protect and grow our main streets by providing tax breaks for our micro businesses that make up 92% of all U.S. Businesses. Cindy will work with local communities to create work hubs, turning derelict buildings into sustainable, connected workplaces, creating the infrastructure for employers to bring good paying jobs to our small towns.

Building Iowa’s Leadership in Renewable Energy & Tackling Climate Change

Climate change is real, and we are feeling the devastating effects. It’s already affecting America’s economy and it will only get worse if we don’t act. We have seen it first hand here in Iowa, with crippling droughts and floods putting our food supply and farmers’ livelihoods at stake. In Washington, Cindy will fight to protect our environment and invest in renewable energy.

Cindy is proud of her work on the Governor’s Agenda for Energy Efficiency and Clean Environment, which helped bring the wind industry to scale and made Iowa the number two state in the nation in wind energy production. She’ll work to bring clean energy jobs to Iowa including solar, wind, smart grid technology and battery storage. She’ll also promote investment in more efficient cars, appliances, buildings and industrial plants to cut energy use in half.

Returning our Democracy Back to the People

In the years following the Supreme Court decision Citizens United, our democracy has been under attack by dark money. We’ve seen billions wasted on political campaigns from corporations and mega donors trying to buy our elections. It’s why our campaign has pledged not to take corporate PAC money, and instead is focused on being powered by grassroots supporters. It’s time Washington passes true campaign finance reform, and that starts with passing legislation that forces outside groups to disclose their donors. Finally, we must pass a constitutional amendment to overturn the Citizens United ruling and bring an end to the dark money which is buying our elections.

Women’s Reproductive Rights

Here in Iowa and around the country we have seen women’s rights attacked. Just last year alone, Iowa lost four planned parenthood facilities leaving over 14,000 women and men without primary care services. That’s unacceptable. As a member of Congress, Cindy will fight to keep Washington politicians out of the Doctor’s office and out of the personal decisions between women and their doctors. That’s why Cindy will ensure that Planned Parenthood funding continues, allowing women and men to continue to receive vital healthcare services.

Keeping our Promises and Protecting Social Security and Medicare

It’s been our commitment for the last seventy years, if you work hard and pay your taxes that Social Security and Medicare will be there for you when you retire. But Donald Trump and Paul Ryan’s budgets try to cut Medicare and privatize it, threatening seniors who have worked hard and paid into these systems. Cindy will stop Trump and Ryan, honoring the promises we’ve made to seniors. As a volunteer for years with Little Brothers, Friends of the Elderly, Cindy’s seen up close how much our seniors depend on Social Security and Medicare. In Congress, Cindy will fight Republican efforts to privatize and defund these programs so our seniors and families can live their lives with dignity.

Veterans

Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District is home to over 40,000 veterans. These brave men and women put their lives on the line here and abroad to keep our country safe. But America is letting them down, not doing our duty to provide them with the health care, support, and job opportunities to succeed in civilian life. When Cindy’s in Congress, she will fight to reform and modernize the Department of Veterans Affairs so our veterans get the physical and mental health care they need, skills training and job opportunities, and making sure companies are hiring and rehiring veterans after they serve.

Equality for our LGBTQ community

Cindy was proud when Iowa led the way on marriage equality, and now it’s the law of the land in America. But the fight for equality is not over. Every day our family members, friends, and co-workers face discrimination in the workforce and their personal lives. Cindy will fight for the Equality Act which will crack down on discrimination against LGBT Americans from employers, landlords, or anyone else. And she will defend hard-won LGBT rights that are under assault in Washington.[2]

David Young

American Optimism

Optimism is at the center of America’s continued greatness, and it is the defining character of David’s public service and of his campaign to represent Iowa’s Third Congressional District. David spent the last 7 years working for the people of Iowa shoulder-to-shoulder with Senator Chuck Grassley as his Chief of Staff. David knows how to tackle tough issues and get results for Iowa.

Balancing the Budget & Controlling Spending

David is courageous in his stand against the waste, fraud, abuse and mismanagement rampant in the federal government. He is not afraid to blow the whistle on government officials who act irresponsibly with the taxpayer’s dollars or trust.

Oversight of our government is one of the most important duties of a member of Congress. The federal bureaucracy is plagued by scandal. It has to stop. We need to shine a spotlight into the darkness of Washington, D.C. – because sunshine is the best disinfectant. David will hold government accountable in order to restore trust in our democracy.

David is a watchdog, he learned from the best – Senator Grassley. He is he ready to dismantle the parts of DC that don’t work and rebuild the parts that need to work better. David will hold government from both parties accountable as he fights for a transparent government that works better for Iowa and for America.

Holding Government Accountable

David has proposed a set of Better Budget Principles rooted in Iowa common sense, which will put the United States on a path toward getting our fiscal house in order.

  • Balanced Budget Amendment – The concept here is simple: never spend more money than you have revenue. In Iowa, this concept is just common sense.
  • Zero Based Budgeting – this solution simply means that each year, the funding level for all government programs and agencies will begin at $0. This is a better budgeting practice than giving every program the same amount as last year, plus a raise.
  • Sunset Legislation – attaching a sunset clause to every law enacted by Congress means policies will no longer outlive their usefulness. When the sunset date arrives, Congress will examine the program anew and determine if it should continue for another finite period of time.
  • Full Federal Audit – the budget of every government department and agency should undergo a thorough outside audit to ensure taxpayer funds are being used in the most effective manner possible.

Strengthening Our Economy & Creating Jobs

Iowa’s manufacturing and agriculture industries are important to the American economy. David knows Iowa has what it takes to help make America’s economy stronger than ever. To be successful as a nation, to give job creators and families certainty for our future, we need to enact and promote common sense federal policies just like we have in Iowa.

We need financial security as a nation and as individuals. Our country’s economic policies should encourage investment in America to spur innovation and job creation. These policies should also encourage saving for the future and for uncertain times. We do this at the state level in Iowa through our “Rainy Day” fund and we do the same thing as inviduals. Iowans have the lowest credit card debt per capita of any state in the country. We need some more Iowa style fiscal responsibility in Washington because that is the best way to get our economy rolling.

The current U.S. tax code is 74,000 pages. David will fight for tax reform as a way to spur job creation. Our current tax system devastates the family budget and goes straight to the bottom line of businesses that are trying to create jobs and hire more hardworking Americans. The tax code should be fairer, flatter and simpler.

Improving Healthcare & Lowering Costs

Trying to fix our healthcare system by a one-size-fits-all bureaucratic approach does not work. All Americans deserve the benefits of lower healthcare prices and better access to providers. Sadly, that is not what we have received from Obamacare. We need to enact market-based solutions that work for all Iowans and all Americans. These solutions should focus on you, the patient, not the government.

David believes Obamacare should be dismantled and replaced by solutions such as allowing individuals to purchase insurance across state lines, price transparency, and reducing hospital readmissions by improving follow-up care. These are a few commonsense ideas of market-based solutions which can bring down the cost of health insurance and of medical services. We must ensure coverage is provided to individuals even if they have preexisting conditions and that young people still struggling in the job market are able to continue to receive coverage under a parent’s plan.

Keeping America's Promise to Seniors

Obamacare raided $700 billion from Medicare. No reform to our healthcare system should be paid for on the backs of America’s seniors. David will be sure we keep our promises to seniors. We need to protect and preserve Medicare because it provides needed security to older Americans. One of the ways we can work to protect and preserve the integrity of Medicare is by taking an aggressive approach to combating fraud and abuse within the program.

Here are a few solutions David is offering to reduce fraud in Medicare and protect benefits for Iowa Seniors:

  • Prevent Identity-Theft by removing social security numbers from Medicare cards.
  • Improve Oversight and Detection of improper billing and fraudulent claims.
  • Encourage Better Use of Technology to reduce errors in billing and eliminate unnecessary paperwork.
  • Strive to Reduce Overtesting and the incentive to perform duplicate tests.
  • Invest In Fraud Prevention because, on average, $1 dollar invested in oversight returns $10 to the taxpayer.

Defending Those Who Have Defended America

America’s commitment to our men and women in uniform and to our veterans should never waiver. David will always work to be sure our troops in battle have the resources needed for safety and to complete their missions.

When soldiers return home they deserve the best medical care available. Period. What has gone on in Veterans Administration hospitals around the country is inexcusable. David believes veterans should receive timely care either in a VA hospital or at a hospital of the veteran’s choosing. David is a proponent of an exhaustive investigation into the poor practices of VA healthcare so we can be sure no more veterans are subjected to long waiting lists and sub-par treatment.[6]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Cindy Axne Facebook

Republican Party David Young Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Thirty-one of 99 Iowa counties—31 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Allamakee County, Iowa 24.15% 4.17% 14.25%
Boone County, Iowa 13.69% 6.64% 7.63%
Bremer County, Iowa 13.68% 2.68% 9.31%
Buchanan County, Iowa 15.02% 13.87% 18.48%
Cedar County, Iowa 17.78% 4.59% 9.64%
Cerro Gordo County, Iowa 7.66% 13.38% 20.83%
Chickasaw County, Iowa 22.94% 11.07% 20.74%
Clarke County, Iowa 28.02% 1.47% 2.25%
Clayton County, Iowa 22.78% 7.03% 17.17%
Clinton County, Iowa 5.12% 22.84% 23.03%
Des Moines County, Iowa 6.89% 18.41% 23.04%
Dubuque County, Iowa 1.23% 14.71% 20.77%
Fayette County, Iowa 19.36% 11.96% 16.60%
Floyd County, Iowa 14.84% 14.63% 21.88%
Howard County, Iowa 20.49% 20.95% 25.78%
Jackson County, Iowa 19.27% 16.89% 24.39%
Jasper County, Iowa 18.13% 7.07% 7.50%
Jefferson County, Iowa 0.47% 15.97% 20.23%
Jones County, Iowa 19.08% 7.78% 10.40%
Lee County, Iowa 16.02% 15.49% 16.01%
Louisa County, Iowa 28.37% 0.64% 4.25%
Marshall County, Iowa 8.31% 9.36% 9.35%
Mitchell County, Iowa 24.04% 3.37% 12.31%
Muscatine County, Iowa 6.26% 15.88% 15.64%
Poweshiek County, Iowa 6.53% 9.35% 11.75%
Tama County, Iowa 20.28% 7.43% 12.19%
Union County, Iowa 27.49% 3.86% 3.70%
Wapello County, Iowa 20.60% 11.88% 13.53%
Webster County, Iowa 21.52% 5.84% 8.51%
Winneshiek County, Iowa 0.79% 14.74% 22.65%
Worth County, Iowa 21.68% 14.53% 22.42%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Iowa with 51.1 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 41.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1848 and 2016, Iowa voted Republican 69.76 percent of the time and Democratic 30.23 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Iowa voted Democratic three times and Republican the other two times.[21]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Iowa. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[22][23]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 61 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 19.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 35 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 18.8 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 65 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. Trump won 10 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent David Young (R) defeated Jim Mowrer (D), Bryan Holder (L), Claudia Addy (I), and Joe Grandanette (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Young defeated Joe Grandanette in the Republican primary on June 7, 2016, while Mowrer defeated Desmund Adams and Mike Sherzan in the Democratic primary.[24][25]

U.S. House, Iowa District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Young Incumbent 53.4% 208,598
     Democratic Jim Mowrer 39.7% 155,002
     Libertarian Bryan Holder 3.9% 15,372
     Independent Claudia Addy 1.6% 6,348
     Independent Joe Grandanette 1.2% 4,518
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 449
Total Votes 390,287
Source: Iowa Secretary of State


U.S. House, Iowa District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJim Mowrer 49.6% 13,024
Mike Sherzan 36.5% 9,573
Desmund Adams 13.9% 3,650
Total Votes 26,247
Source: Iowa Secretary of State
U.S. House, Iowa District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Young Incumbent 85.2% 17,977
Joe Grandanette 14.8% 3,134
Total Votes 21,111
Source: Iowa Secretary of State

2014

See also: Iowa's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Iowa held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. David Young (R) defeated Staci Appel (D), Edward Wright (L) and Bryan Jack Holder (I) in the general election.

U.S. House, Iowa District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Staci Appel 42.2% 119,109
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Young 52.8% 148,814
     Libertarian Ed Wright 3.2% 9,054
     Independent Bryan Jack Holder 1.5% 4,360
     Write-in Other 0.3% 729
Total Votes 282,066
Source: Iowa Secretary of State Official Results

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Iowa heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Iowa General Assembly. They had a 58-41 majority in the state House and a 29-20 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Iowa had a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Kim Reynolds (R) served as governor; she succeeded Terry E. Branstad, who resigned on May 24, 2017, to take the position of U.S. Ambassador to China.

2018 elections

See also: Iowa elections, 2018

Iowa held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Iowa
 IowaU.S.
Total population:3,121,997316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,8573,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:91.2%73.6%
Black/African American:3.2%12.6%
Asian:2%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,183$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Iowa.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Iowa's three largest cities were Des Moines (pop. est. 220,000), Cedar Rapids (pop. est. 130,000), and Davenport (pop. est. 100,000).[26]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Iowa from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Iowa Secretary of State website.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Iowa every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 50.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 41.3% 9.4%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.0% 5.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 53.7% Republican Party John McCain 44.2% 9.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 49.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 49.2% 0.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 48.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 48.2% 0.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Iowa from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 60.1% Democratic Party Patty Judge 35.7% 24.4%
2014 Republican Party Joni Ernst 51.5% Democratic Party Bruce Braley 43.3% 8.2%
2010 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 63.4% Democratic Party Roxanne Conlin 32.8% 30.6%
2008 Democratic Party Tom Harkin 61.4% Republican Party Christopher Reed 36.5% 24.9%
2004 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 70.2% Democratic Party Arthur Small 27.9% 42.3%
2002 Democratic Party Tom Harkin 54.2% Republican Party Greg Ganske 43.8% 10.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Iowa.

Election results (Governor), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Terry Branstad 58.4% Democratic Party Jack Hatch 36.9% 21.5%
2010 Republican Party Terry Branstad 52.3% Democratic Party Chet Culver 42.8% 9.5%
2006 Democratic Party Chet Culver 53.7% Republican Party Jim Nussle 44.1% 9.6%
2002 Democratic Party Tom Vilsack 52.7% Republican Party Doug Gross 44.5% 8.2%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Iowa in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Iowa 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2014 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2012[27] Republican Party 2 50.0% Democratic Party 2 50.0% Split
2010 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2008 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2006 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Iowa Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eleven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Smart Politics, "Axne Records Rare Plurality Win in Iowa US House Race," November 11, 2018
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Cindy Axne 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed February 27, 2018
  3. ↑ Young for Iowa, "David Young," accessed February 3, 2015
  4. ↑ David Young 2018 campaign website, "About," accessed September 18, 2018
  5. ↑ David Young 2018 campaign website, "Balancing the Budget and Controlling Spending," accessed September 18, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 David Young 2018 campaign website, "Solutions," accessed August 20, 2018
  7. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  8. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  9. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  10. ↑ Politico, "CLF backs Young after spurning him last year," August 31, 2018
  11. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named kidding
  12. ↑ Des Moines Register, "Out-of-state money pouring into Iowa's 3rd District race between David Young and Cindy Axne," September 7, 2018
  13. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  14. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  15. ↑ Democrat Cindy Axne for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed February 5, 2018
  16. ↑ Bleeding Heartland, "Who's endorsed the seven Democrats running for Congress in IA-03," January 11, 2018
  17. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named mauro
  18. ↑ Justice Democrats, "Candidates," accessed May 21, 2018
  19. ↑ EMILY's List, "Cindy Axne," accessed April 15, 2018
  20. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named register
  21. ↑ 270towin.com, "Iowa," accessed June 1, 2017
  22. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  23. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  24. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office," accessed March 19, 2016
  25. ↑ The New York Times "Iowa Caucus Results," June 7, 2016
  26. ↑ Iowa Demographics, "Iowa Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  27. ↑ Iowa lost one U.S. House seat following the 2010 census.
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Iowa's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Joni Ernst (R)
Chuck Grassley (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Zach Nunn (R)
District 4
Republican Party (6)

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