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Iowa's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Iowa District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve King
Steve King (R)
 
50.3
 
157,676
Image of J.D. Scholten
J.D. Scholten (D)
 
47.0
 
147,246
Image of Charles Aldrich
Charles Aldrich (L)
 
2.0
 
6,161
Image of Edward Peterson
Edward Peterson (Independent)
 
0.6
 
1,962
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
206

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 313,251
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020 →
← 2016
Iowa's 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 16, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Steve King (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Voting in Iowa
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+11
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Iowa's 4th Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th
Iowa elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Iowa, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Steve King (R), who was first elected to the 4th district in 2012. He previously served Iowa's 5th district before it was removed in the redistricting of 2012.

Iowa's 4th Congressional District covers north-central and northwest Iowa. The district includes Ames and Sioux City, as well as the counties of Lyon, Sioux, Plymouth, Woodbury, Monona, Harrison, Shelby, Crawford, Audubon, Carroll, Greene, Boone, Story, Hardin, Hamilton, Webster, Calhoun, Sac, Ida, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Pocahontas, Humboldt, Franklin, Butler, Chicksaw, Floyd, Cerro Gordo, Hancock, Winnebago, Kossuth, Emmet, Palo Alto, Dickinson, Osceola, O'Brien, Clay, Grundy and Wright.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Iowa District 4

Incumbent Steve King defeated J.D. Scholten, Charles Aldrich, and Edward Peterson in the general election for U.S. House Iowa District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve King
Steve King (R)
 
50.3
 
157,676
Image of J.D. Scholten
J.D. Scholten (D)
 
47.0
 
147,246
Image of Charles Aldrich
Charles Aldrich (L)
 
2.0
 
6,161
Image of Edward Peterson
Edward Peterson (Independent)
 
0.6
 
1,962
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
206

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 313,251
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Iowa District 4

J.D. Scholten defeated Leann Jacobsen and John Paschen in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Iowa District 4 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of J.D. Scholten
J.D. Scholten
 
51.3
 
14,733
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Leann Jacobsen
 
32.0
 
9,176
Image of John Paschen
John Paschen
 
16.7
 
4,806

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 28,715
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Iowa District 4

Incumbent Steve King defeated Cyndi Hanson in the Republican primary for U.S. House Iowa District 4 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve King
Steve King
 
74.8
 
28,053
Image of Cyndi Hanson
Cyndi Hanson
 
25.2
 
9,437

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 37,490
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Iowa's 4th Congressional District the 125th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.06. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.06 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Steve King Republican Party $876,230 $976,612 $26,221 As of December 31, 2018
J.D. Scholten Democratic Party $3,309,882 $3,240,682 $69,200 As of December 31, 2018
Charles Aldrich Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Edward Peterson Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Iowa's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Steve King (R) defeated Kim Weaver (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. King defeated Rick Bertrand in the Republican primary on June 7, 2016, while Weaver ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.[4][5]

U.S. House, Iowa District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSteve King Incumbent 61.2% 226,719
     Democratic Kim Weaver 38.6% 142,993
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 547
Total Votes 370,259
Source: Iowa Secretary of State


U.S. House, Iowa District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngSteve King Incumbent 64.7% 29,098
Rick Bertrand 35.3% 15,872
Total Votes 44,970
Source: Iowa Secretary of State

2014

See also: Iowa's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Iowa held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Steve King (R) defeated Jim Mowrer (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Iowa District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngSteve King Incumbent 61.6% 169,834
     Democratic Jim Mowrer 38.3% 105,504
     Write-in Other 0.1% 295
Total Votes 275,633
Source: Iowa Secretary of State Official Results

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Thirty-one of 99 Iowa counties—31 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Allamakee County, Iowa 24.15% 4.17% 14.25%
Boone County, Iowa 13.69% 6.64% 7.63%
Bremer County, Iowa 13.68% 2.68% 9.31%
Buchanan County, Iowa 15.02% 13.87% 18.48%
Cedar County, Iowa 17.78% 4.59% 9.64%
Cerro Gordo County, Iowa 7.66% 13.38% 20.83%
Chickasaw County, Iowa 22.94% 11.07% 20.74%
Clarke County, Iowa 28.02% 1.47% 2.25%
Clayton County, Iowa 22.78% 7.03% 17.17%
Clinton County, Iowa 5.12% 22.84% 23.03%
Des Moines County, Iowa 6.89% 18.41% 23.04%
Dubuque County, Iowa 1.23% 14.71% 20.77%
Fayette County, Iowa 19.36% 11.96% 16.60%
Floyd County, Iowa 14.84% 14.63% 21.88%
Howard County, Iowa 20.49% 20.95% 25.78%
Jackson County, Iowa 19.27% 16.89% 24.39%
Jasper County, Iowa 18.13% 7.07% 7.50%
Jefferson County, Iowa 0.47% 15.97% 20.23%
Jones County, Iowa 19.08% 7.78% 10.40%
Lee County, Iowa 16.02% 15.49% 16.01%
Louisa County, Iowa 28.37% 0.64% 4.25%
Marshall County, Iowa 8.31% 9.36% 9.35%
Mitchell County, Iowa 24.04% 3.37% 12.31%
Muscatine County, Iowa 6.26% 15.88% 15.64%
Poweshiek County, Iowa 6.53% 9.35% 11.75%
Tama County, Iowa 20.28% 7.43% 12.19%
Union County, Iowa 27.49% 3.86% 3.70%
Wapello County, Iowa 20.60% 11.88% 13.53%
Webster County, Iowa 21.52% 5.84% 8.51%
Winneshiek County, Iowa 0.79% 14.74% 22.65%
Worth County, Iowa 21.68% 14.53% 22.42%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Iowa with 51.1 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 41.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1848 and 2016, Iowa voted Republican 69.76 percent of the time and Democratic 30.23 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Iowa voted Democratic three times and Republican the other two times.[6]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Iowa. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 61 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 19.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 35 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 18.8 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 65 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. Trump won 10 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Iowa heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Iowa General Assembly. They had a 58-41 majority in the state House and a 29-20 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Iowa had a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Kim Reynolds (R) served as governor; she succeeded Terry E. Branstad, who resigned on May 24, 2017, to take the position of U.S. Ambassador to China.

2018 elections

See also: Iowa elections, 2018

Iowa held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Iowa
 IowaU.S.
Total population:3,121,997316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,8573,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:91.2%73.6%
Black/African American:3.2%12.6%
Asian:2%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,183$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Iowa.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Iowa's three largest cities were Des Moines (pop. est. 220,000), Cedar Rapids (pop. est. 130,000), and Davenport (pop. est. 100,000).[9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Iowa from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Iowa Secretary of State website.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Iowa every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 50.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 41.3% 9.4%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.0% 5.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 53.7% Republican Party John McCain 44.2% 9.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 49.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 49.2% 0.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 48.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 48.2% 0.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Iowa from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 60.1% Democratic Party Patty Judge 35.7% 24.4%
2014 Republican Party Joni Ernst 51.5% Democratic Party Bruce Braley 43.3% 8.2%
2010 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 63.4% Democratic Party Roxanne Conlin 32.8% 30.6%
2008 Democratic Party Tom Harkin 61.4% Republican Party Christopher Reed 36.5% 24.9%
2004 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 70.2% Democratic Party Arthur Small 27.9% 42.3%
2002 Democratic Party Tom Harkin 54.2% Republican Party Greg Ganske 43.8% 10.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Iowa.

Election results (Governor), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Terry Branstad 58.4% Democratic Party Jack Hatch 36.9% 21.5%
2010 Republican Party Terry Branstad 52.3% Democratic Party Chet Culver 42.8% 9.5%
2006 Democratic Party Chet Culver 53.7% Republican Party Jim Nussle 44.1% 9.6%
2002 Democratic Party Tom Vilsack 52.7% Republican Party Doug Gross 44.5% 8.2%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Iowa in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Iowa 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2014 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2012[10] Republican Party 2 50.0% Democratic Party 2 50.0% Split
2010 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2008 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2006 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Iowa Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eleven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Iowa Redistricting Map "Map" accessed July 24, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office," accessed March 19, 2016
  5. ↑ The New York Times "Iowa Caucus Results," June 7, 2016
  6. ↑ 270towin.com, "Iowa," accessed June 1, 2017
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ Iowa Demographics, "Iowa Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  10. ↑ Iowa lost one U.S. House seat following the 2010 census.
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Iowa's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Joni Ernst (R)
Chuck Grassley (R)
Representatives
District 1
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Zach Nunn (R)
District 4
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