Iowa's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Iowa District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Dave Loebsack
Dave Loebsack (D)
 
54.8
 
171,446
Image of Chris Peters
Chris Peters (R)
 
42.6
 
133,287
Image of Mark Strauss
Mark Strauss (L)
 
2.0
 
6,181
Image of Daniel Clark
Daniel Clark (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
1,837
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
162

Total votes: 312,913
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020
2016
Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 16, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Dave Loebsack (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Voting in Iowa
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+1
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Iowa's 2nd Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th
Iowa elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Iowa, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Dave Loebsack (D), who was first elected in 2006.

Iowa's 2nd Congressional District covers most of the southeastern part of the state including Iowa City. Appanoose, Cedar, Clarke, Clinton, Davis, Decatur, Des Moines, Henry, Jasper, Jefferson, Johnson, Keokuk, Lee, Louisa, Lucas, Mahaska, Marion, Monroe, Muscatine, Scott, Van Buren, Wapello, Washington, and Wayne counties are included in this district.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Iowa District 2

Incumbent Dave Loebsack defeated Chris Peters, Mark Strauss, and Daniel Clark in the general election for U.S. House Iowa District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Dave Loebsack
Dave Loebsack (D)
 
54.8
 
171,446
Image of Chris Peters
Chris Peters (R)
 
42.6
 
133,287
Image of Mark Strauss
Mark Strauss (L)
 
2.0
 
6,181
Image of Daniel Clark
Daniel Clark (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
0.6
 
1,837
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
162

Total votes: 312,913
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Iowa District 2

Incumbent Dave Loebsack advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Iowa District 2 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Dave Loebsack
Dave Loebsack
 
100.0
 
42,378

Total votes: 42,378
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Iowa District 2

Chris Peters defeated Ginny Caligiuri in the Republican primary for U.S. House Iowa District 2 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Chris Peters
Chris Peters
 
87.5
 
18,056
Ginny Caligiuri (Write-in)
 
11.6
 
2,389
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.9
 
181

Total votes: 20,626
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made Iowa's 2nd Congressional District the 193rd most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.17. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.17 points toward that party.[3]

Race background

Iowa's 2nd District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]

Incumbent Dave Loebsack was included as one of the initial members of the DCCC's Frontline Program in 2018.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Dave Loebsack Democratic Party $2,062,526 $2,354,380 $668,853 As of December 31, 2018
Chris Peters Republican Party $846,951 $853,952 $773 As of December 31, 2018
Mark Strauss Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Daniel Clark Independent $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Democratic district won by Donald Trump

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[6] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.


2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran D+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Democratic Party Dave Loebsack D+12.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Cheri Bustos D+23.6 Trump+0.7 Obama+17.0
Minnesota's 1st Democratic Party Tim Walz Republican Party Jim Hagedorn R+0.4 Trump+14.9 Obama+1.4
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Democratic Party Collin Peterson D+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Minnesota's 8th Democratic Party Rick Nolan Republican Party Pete Stauber R+5.5 Trump+15.6 Obama+5.5
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Chris Pappas D+11.7 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer D+11.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.1
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Democratic Party Susie Lee D+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney D+10.2 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright[7] Democratic Party Matt Cartwright D+9.2 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 14th Democratic Party Conor Lamb[8] Republican Party Guy Reschenthaler R+15.9 Trump+29.0 Romney+17.7
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Democratic Party Ron Kind D+19.4 Trump+4.5 Obama+11.0


Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections.

District history

2016

See also: Iowa's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Dave Loebsack (D) defeated Chris Peters (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary challenger in June.[9]

U.S. House, Iowa District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDave Loebsack Incumbent 53.7% 198,571
     Republican Christopher Peters 46.2% 170,933
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 528
Total Votes 370,032
Source: Iowa Secretary of State

2014

See also: Iowa's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Iowa held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Dave Loebsack (D) defeated Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Iowa District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDave Loebsack Incumbent 52.5% 143,431
     Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks 47.4% 129,455
     Write-in Other 0.2% 443
Total Votes 273,329
Source: Iowa Secretary of State Official Results

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Thirty-one of 99 Iowa counties—31 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Allamakee County, Iowa 24.15% 4.17% 14.25%
Boone County, Iowa 13.69% 6.64% 7.63%
Bremer County, Iowa 13.68% 2.68% 9.31%
Buchanan County, Iowa 15.02% 13.87% 18.48%
Cedar County, Iowa 17.78% 4.59% 9.64%
Cerro Gordo County, Iowa 7.66% 13.38% 20.83%
Chickasaw County, Iowa 22.94% 11.07% 20.74%
Clarke County, Iowa 28.02% 1.47% 2.25%
Clayton County, Iowa 22.78% 7.03% 17.17%
Clinton County, Iowa 5.12% 22.84% 23.03%
Des Moines County, Iowa 6.89% 18.41% 23.04%
Dubuque County, Iowa 1.23% 14.71% 20.77%
Fayette County, Iowa 19.36% 11.96% 16.60%
Floyd County, Iowa 14.84% 14.63% 21.88%
Howard County, Iowa 20.49% 20.95% 25.78%
Jackson County, Iowa 19.27% 16.89% 24.39%
Jasper County, Iowa 18.13% 7.07% 7.50%
Jefferson County, Iowa 0.47% 15.97% 20.23%
Jones County, Iowa 19.08% 7.78% 10.40%
Lee County, Iowa 16.02% 15.49% 16.01%
Louisa County, Iowa 28.37% 0.64% 4.25%
Marshall County, Iowa 8.31% 9.36% 9.35%
Mitchell County, Iowa 24.04% 3.37% 12.31%
Muscatine County, Iowa 6.26% 15.88% 15.64%
Poweshiek County, Iowa 6.53% 9.35% 11.75%
Tama County, Iowa 20.28% 7.43% 12.19%
Union County, Iowa 27.49% 3.86% 3.70%
Wapello County, Iowa 20.60% 11.88% 13.53%
Webster County, Iowa 21.52% 5.84% 8.51%
Winneshiek County, Iowa 0.79% 14.74% 22.65%
Worth County, Iowa 21.68% 14.53% 22.42%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Iowa with 51.1 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 41.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1848 and 2016, Iowa voted Republican 69.76 percent of the time and Democratic 30.23 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Iowa voted Democratic three times and Republican the other two times.[10]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Iowa. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 61 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 19.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 35 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 18.8 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 65 out of 100 state House districts in Iowa with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. Trump won 10 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Iowa heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Iowa General Assembly. They had a 58-41 majority in the state House and a 29-20 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Iowa had a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Kim Reynolds (R) served as governor; she succeeded Terry E. Branstad, who resigned on May 24, 2017, to take the position of U.S. Ambassador to China.

2018 elections

See also: Iowa elections, 2018

Iowa held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Iowa
 IowaU.S.
Total population:3,121,997316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):55,8573,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:91.2%73.6%
Black/African American:3.2%12.6%
Asian:2%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91.5%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,183$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Iowa.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Iowa's three largest cities were Des Moines (pop. est. 220,000), Cedar Rapids (pop. est. 130,000), and Davenport (pop. est. 100,000).[13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Iowa from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Iowa Secretary of State website.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Iowa every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 50.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 41.3% 9.4%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.0% 5.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 53.7% Republican Party John McCain 44.2% 9.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 49.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 49.2% 0.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 48.5% Republican Party George W. Bush 48.2% 0.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Iowa from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 60.1% Democratic Party Patty Judge 35.7% 24.4%
2014 Republican Party Joni Ernst 51.5% Democratic Party Bruce Braley 43.3% 8.2%
2010 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 63.4% Democratic Party Roxanne Conlin 32.8% 30.6%
2008 Democratic Party Tom Harkin 61.4% Republican Party Christopher Reed 36.5% 24.9%
2004 Republican Party Chuck Grassley 70.2% Democratic Party Arthur Small 27.9% 42.3%
2002 Democratic Party Tom Harkin 54.2% Republican Party Greg Ganske 43.8% 10.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Iowa.

Election results (Governor), Iowa 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Terry Branstad 58.4% Democratic Party Jack Hatch 36.9% 21.5%
2010 Republican Party Terry Branstad 52.3% Democratic Party Chet Culver 42.8% 9.5%
2006 Democratic Party Chet Culver 53.7% Republican Party Jim Nussle 44.1% 9.6%
2002 Democratic Party Tom Vilsack 52.7% Republican Party Doug Gross 44.5% 8.2%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Iowa in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Iowa 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2014 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+2
2012[14] Republican Party 2 50.0% Democratic Party 2 50.0% Split
2010 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2008 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2006 Republican Party 2 40.0% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1
2004 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 4 80.0% Democratic Party 1 20.0% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Iowa Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eleven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  5. Roll Call, "Democrats Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018," March 6, 2017
  6. This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  7. The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
  8. The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
  9. Iowa Secretary of State, "Candidate Listing by Office," accessed March 19, 2016
  10. 270towin.com, "Iowa," accessed June 1, 2017
  11. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  12. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  13. Iowa Demographics, "Iowa Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
  14. Iowa lost one U.S. House seat following the 2010 census.



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Zach Nunn (R)
District 4
Republican Party (6)