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Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

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2020
2016
Kansas' 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Lynn Jenkins (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Kansas
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+10
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Kansas' 2nd Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th
Kansas elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Army veteran and engineer Steve Watkins (R) defeated former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D) and business owner Kelly Standley (L) in the general election for Kansas' 2nd Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Incumbent Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R) announced she was not seeking re-election in January 2017, which left open a seat whose district Donald Trump won by a margin of 19 points in 2016. The district had elected a Republican representative in every election since 1994, with the exception of the 2006 election of Nancy Boyda (D). The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) named Davis to its "Red to Blue" program.[1] Three forecasting outlets covered by Ballotpedia rated the race a "Toss-up" in the month leading up to the election.


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Steve Watkins defeated Paul Davis and Kelly Standley in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Watkins
Steve Watkins (R)
 
47.6
 
126,098
Image of Paul Davis
Paul Davis (D)
 
46.8
 
123,859
Image of Kelly Standley
Kelly Standley (L)
 
5.6
 
14,731

Total votes: 264,688
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Paul Davis advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Paul Davis
Paul Davis
 
100.0
 
38,846

Total votes: 38,846
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Watkins
Steve Watkins
 
26.5
 
20,052
Image of Caryn Tyson
Caryn Tyson
 
23.5
 
17,749
Image of Kevin Jones
Kevin Jones
 
14.8
 
11,201
Image of Steve Fitzgerald
Steve Fitzgerald
 
12.2
 
9,227
Image of Dennis Pyle
Dennis Pyle
 
12.1
 
9,126
Image of Doug Mays
Doug Mays
 
8.2
 
6,221
Image of Vernon Fields
Vernon Fields
 
2.6
 
1,987

Total votes: 75,563
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Paul Davis, Former Kansas state representative
PaulDavis.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: Kansas House of Representatives District 46 (2003-2015)

Biography: Davis received a B.A. from the University of Kansas in 1995 and a J.D from Washburn University Law School in 1997. His professional experience includes working as an attorney for the firm of Fagan, Emert & Davis, for the Legislative and Ethics Counsel of the Kansas Bar Association and as Assistant Director of Government Affairs, Kansas Insurance Department. In 2002 Davis was elected to the Kansas House of Representatives where he represented District 46 until 2015. While in office, Davis served as Minority Leader. In 2014 Davis ran unsuccessfully for Governor of Kansas, facing Gov. Sam Brownback (R) in a hotly contested general election.[2]

Key messages
  • Davis called Watkins' healthcare policy partisan, touting the endorsement of 36 Kansas Republicans and saying that he "will reach across the aisle to fix what’s broken in the Affordable Care Act so we can stabilize the market and lower premiums."[3][4]
  • Davis opposed abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), adding that "'safe havens' for drug dealers, gangs, and other criminals cannot be tolerated." Davis also supported the Dream Act and opposed family separation at the border. He advocated for a bipartisan compromise to reform the immigration system.[4]
  • Davis cited "When President Obama’s EPA tried to regulate puddles and farm dust," and his vocal opposition to the regulations, as an example of his willingness to stand up to his party to oppose what he called federal overreach in defense of farmers.



Kelly Standley, former chair of the Neosho County Democratic Party
Kelly D Standley.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Libertarian

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Standley received a Ph.D. in legal studies from Grand Canyon University. He was the Neosho County Democratic Party chair, and he ran for elected office as a Republican in Colorado. Standley initially filed to run in the Democratic primary in 2018 before switching to Libertarian.[5] He worked as a business analyst for Amazon.com and was the owner of David's Tree Service. As of the 2018 election, he was the director of business operations at the McDonald Standley Foundation and an adjunct professor at Grand Canyon University.[6]

Key messages
  • Standley said that his lack of loyalty to a major party agenda would enable him to serve the best interests of Kansans in Congress.[7][8]
  • Standley emphasized his support for raising the federal minimum wage, lowering taxes while taxing the wealthy a higher amount than those with less income, eliminating the need for supplemental insurance for seniors on Medicare, and improving on the ACA.[9][10]
  • Standley criticized Davis by saying he supported tax increases and Watkins by accusing him of dishonesty.[8][9]



Steve Watkins, Former Army Ranger and defense contractor
Steve Watkins.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Watkins served in the U.S. Army from 1994-2004, reaching the rank of captain and serving as an Airborne Ranger. Watkins received a B.S. in engineering at the United States Military Academy at West Port in 1999. He began working as an engineering and business consultant at Versar Incorporated in 2004, and continued to hold that position as of 2018. In 2010 Watkins earned a Master's degree at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and in 2017 he received a MC/MCA in public policy analysis from Harvard University.

Key messages
  • Watkins signed the National Right To Life Pledge and called himself a pro-life conservative.[11]
  • “I’m not seeing any candidate in the race that knows what I’m talking about,” Watkins said, describing his experiences with terrorism and international threats during his time in the military. He told The Hutchinson News that he would advocate for a strong national defense, that he believed cybersecurity was a pressing issue, and that he would support military action in Syria.[12]
  • Watkins said, "I am a firm believer in all of our Constitutional freedoms—and that includes the Second Amendment," adding, "as a lifelong gun owner and veteran, I will stand against any attempt to misconstrue or misinterpret any of our Constitutional freedoms."[11]



Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, Davis vs. Watkins
Poll Paul Davis (D) Steve Watkins (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
New York Times Upshot/Siena College
October 27-30, 2018
41%37%15%+/-4.8501
New York Times Upshot/Siena College
September 13-15, 2018
45%44%12%+/-4.8500
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Paul Davis Democratic Party $3,985,403 $3,954,361 $31,166 As of December 31, 2018
Steve Watkins Republican Party $1,257,753 $1,223,163 $34,590 As of December 31, 2018
Kelly Standley Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 As of April 1, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[13][14][15]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The Congressional Leadership Fund had spent $3.9 million toward the race through October 25. Around $550,000 was spent in support of Watkins and the rest on media opposing Davis.[16]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[17]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[18][19][20]

Race ratings: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 2nd Congressional District the 134th most Republican nationally.[21]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[22]

Timeline

  • November 4, 2018: The Kansas City Star endorsed Davis.
  • October 30, 2018: A poll showed Davis leading Watkins within the margin of error, with 15 percent of respondents undecided.
  • October 19, 2018: Vice Pres. Mike Pence (R) attended a fundraiser for Watkins in Topeka.[23]
  • September 17, 2018: 36 Republicans endorsed Davis and provided their reasons at a news conference in Topeka.[24]
  • August 22, 2018: Watkins advanced to the second tier of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)'s Young Guns program. "To be included, Republican candidates must meet specific goals throughout the cycle to ensure their campaigns are able to operate effectively," the NRCC noted in its press release.[25]

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Paul Davis

Support

"Flag" - Davis campaign ad, released October 31, 2018
"Responsible" - Davis campaign ad, released October 19, 2018
"Caroline" - Davis campaign ad, released October 4, 2018
"Personal" - Davis campaign ad, released September 5, 2018
"Common Sense" - Davis campaign ad, released August 15, 2018
"Paul Davis for Kansas" - Davis campaign ad, released August 8, 2018
"Crystal Clear" - Davis campaign ad, released August 8, 2018

Oppose

"Wined and Dined" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 17, 2018
"Lead the Fight" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 11, 2018
"Daughters Think" - NRCC ad, released October 9, 2018
"24 Times" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 3, 2018
"Battery" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 26, 2018
"Unethical" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 19, 2018
"Cost" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 12, 2018
"Liberal Past" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released September 5, 2018
"This Time" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released August 8, 2018

Republican Party Steve Watkins

Support

"Lynn" - Watkins campaign ad, released October 30, 2018
"Steve Watkins Launch Video" - Watkins campaign ad, released October 23, 2018
"Selfless Sacrifice" - NRCC campaign ad, released October 16, 2018
"Serve" - Watkins campaign ad, released September 26, 2018
"Won't Let You Down" - Watkins campaign ad, released August 5, 2018
"Only One" - Watkins campaign ad, released July 18, 2018
"Outsider" - Watkins campaign ad, released June 18, 2018

Oppose

"Web" - DCCC ad, released October 22, 2018
"Suspicious" - Davis campaign ad, released October 19, 2018
"Dress Up" - Patriot Majority USA ad, released October 15, 2018
"Caught in a Lie" - DCCC ad, released October 4, 2018
"DCCC PAC Anti Steve Watkins 2018 TV Ad #2 Kansas US House District 2" - DCCC ad, released September 20, 2018
"DCCC PAC Anti Steve Watkins 2018 TV Ad #1 Kansas US House District 2" - DCCC ad, released August 23, 2018

Debates and forums

  • October 22, 2018: Davis, Watkins, and Standley met for a debate. View coverage here.
  • October 18, 2018: Davis and Watkins participated in a debate. View a video of the event here.

Campaign themes

The following themes were listed on candidates' campaign websites.

Democratic Party Paul Davis

AGRICULTURE AND RURAL KANSAS Paul grew up in the second district and he understands that Kansas cannot thrive without strong rural communities. He will protect the traditions and values that define our state’s heritage.

No other congressional district in America is home to more family farms. That’s why Paul created an Agricultural Advisory Group soon after launching his campaign for Congress. He believes it is essential to receive input from a broad group of agriculture leaders, agribusinesses, industry associations who understand the unique needs of the agricultural community in Kansas.

Paul knows there is no better steward of our environment and natural resources than a Kansas farmer. When President Obama’s EPA tried to regulate puddles and farm dust, Paul stood up to his party and opposed this excessive federal overreach. As a state legislator, Paul voted for rural development tax credits to spur small business creation, advocated to expand Medicaid to protect rural hospitals, voted to phase out the state estate tax, and voted to eliminate property taxes for business machinery and equipment.

EDUCATION The son of two teachers, Paul believes elected leaders have a moral obligation to provide our children with a world class public education. He also believes that strong schools are the very foundation of a strong economy. Paul watched his mom pay for her own school supplies for her classroom, so he saw firsthand how hard teachers work with limited resources. One of the first pieces of legislation Paul proposed as a state legislator in 2003 was a bipartisan plan to increase funding for public education, and the last bill Paul offered as a legislator was also a proposal to restore the cuts Sam Brownback made throughout his first term. Paul’s steadfast commitment to public education is why he has been endorsed by Kansas teachers and educators in this race, and why he will fight for them in Washington.

HEALTH CARE Paul believes that a healthy America is a strong America. When families are denied access to quality, affordable, stable health care, it makes our entire country sicker and weaker, impacting everything from our national security to the productivity of our workforce. He also understands how deeply personal health care is, which is why Paul believes the federal government should never come between you and your doctor. When his daughter had to have cranial surgery at just six months old, he knew that she could have been plagued with a pre-existing condition for her entire life if not for the Affordable Care Act. When his dad was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease and his parents had to dip into their retirement savings to pay for his prescription medications, Paul understood firsthand how much the skyrocketing cost of prescription drugs hurts Kansas families.

As a state leader, Paul stood with the Republican Kansas Insurance Commissioner and the AARP in 2014 to fight against Sam Brownback’s attacks on Medicare, jeopardizing health care for over 440,000 Kansas seniors. He voted to expand health insurance for Kansas children, to expand partnerships that enable small business owners provide insurance to employees, and to expand Medicaid. In Washington, Paul will reach across the aisle to fix what’s broken in the Affordable Care Act so we can stabilize the market and lower premiums.

IMMIGRATION REFORM

Washington’s failure to fix our immigration system has created a national crisis. We need leaders who will stop politicizing the problem and find a bipartisan solution that is tough, practical, and humane.

Open borders are dangerous and put Kansas communities at risk. I support stronger border security, improved vetting procedures, and more resources for law enforcement to target criminals in the country illegally. I oppose the abolishing ICE. Additionally, “safe havens” for drug dealers, gangs, and other criminals cannot be tolerated. America is a nation of laws, and anyone who commits a violent crime must be prosecuted to the law’s fullest extent — no exceptions.

America is also nation of immigrants. We owe it to both our forbearers and to future generations to proceed in a way that respects our humanity and heritage. This is why I support the Dream Act and strongly oppose family separation. We have a moral obligation to protect children and young people who were brought here by no fault of their own. I am frustrated that innocent children remain at risk because Washington is too broken to act — even on this matter, on which there is broad, bipartisan agreement.

Washington’s gridlock has caused this problem to grow exponentially. Most of the 11 million undocumented people in the United States obey our laws, pay taxes, speak English, and work hard — many even serve in our military. They should not be allowed to “cut in line,” but after years contributing to our communities, they should be allowed to earn a spot without threats of mass deportation.

This is a serious problem. However, years of hardline rhetoric by politicians who exploit the issue have resulted in an America that is more divided and less safe. It’s time to find a compromise that will fix our immigration system once and for all.

NATIONAL SECURITY There is absolutely nothing more important than defending America’s freedom and our way of life. Our brave service members made the United States the strongest nation in the world, which is why we have a duty to honor their loyalty by ensuring the military has the resources necessary to fight our enemies and keep us safe.

Keeping terrorists out of Kansas means always putting patriotism over politics – no matter which political party won the last election. This requires commonsense immigration reform that won’t cruelly and unnecessarily rip families apart, securing our borders without betraying the founding ideals of our nation, and banding together to combat threats at home, abroad, and online. If we wish to preserve the vitality of our democracy, we must also take decisive action to prevent foreign adversaries from undermining our institutions or intervening in our elections.

[26]

—Steve for Kansas[27]

Republican Party Steve Watkins

Kansas First

Putting the needs of Kansans first doesn't mean isolating ourselves from the world. It means that our people, economy, and safety are the foundation upon which we built a global presence.

I’m proud that America is a global leader, but our domestic issues must take priority. Furthermore, as your representative in Washington, I will put my constituents first and fight tirelessly to deliver better opportunities and a better quality of life for all Kansans.

The Economy & Jobs

Washington’s troubled history of implementing burdensome regulations has restricted small business owners’ ability to create jobs and help grow our Kansas economy. As a former small business owner, I know firsthand the difficulties Kansas entrepreneurs face on a regular basis.

Most importantly, I know what needs to be done to ensure our workforce has the skills necessary to meet the jobs of tomorrow . I am going to fight each and every day to support pro-job policies in Washington that will help small businesses grow, create more jobs, and expand our economy in Kansas.

Pro-Life Conservative

I am pro-life. Today in America, the sanctity of life is rarely valued. As a lifelong conservative, I am and always have been fully dedicated to protecting life at all cost. As Americans we must lead by example, life is sacred and protecting the unborn is a duty we must all uphold. Long ago, I signed the National Right To Life Pledge, to never vote for pro-choice legislation and that is a promise I will uphold in Washington. The Democrats might have a pro-choice agenda in mind, what I say is - Not on my watch.

As a small business owner and private citizen, I’ve seen the fundamental failures of Obamacare and the strain it has left on citizens across Kansas. The Obama Administration believed more government would fix our health care industry. Instead, the Affordable Care Act was anything but affordable, and left Americans with skyrocketing premiums, fewer choices, and a lower quality of care. More government is never the solution.

I believe Congress now has a responsibility to end the crippling ACA tax mandates and work together to replace Obamacare with a patient-centered system that reduces costs, promotes competition, and gives patients more control of their health care.

America Safe

Our military men and women are fighting all across the globe to defend our freedoms and preserve our American way of life. Here at home, it is critically important that our Federal Government recognizes the current threats facing our nation and the threats of our future. Congress must never fail to deliver the resources our military needs to defend our shores.

It is also important we understand that keeping America safe does not stop at global terrorism. Our government has an obligation to secure our borders, stop illegal immigration, and protect communities from violent transnational gangs that have no place in our society. In Washington, I will continue to keep America and Kansans safe by advocating and supporting policies that will put our military and law enforcement in a position to achieve nothing less than a complete victory—regardless of the challenges we will face as a nation.

U.S. Constitution

As an American citizen, I am a firm believer in all of our Constitutional freedoms—and that includes the Second Amendment. The law-abiding gun owners of Kansas understand the tremendous responsibility that comes with carrying a firearm. Above all else, we must remain vigilant, maintain our safety, and the safety of those around us.

The sportsmen and women of Kansas can rest assured, as a lifelong gun owner and veteran, I will stand against any attempt to misconstrue or misinterpret any of our Constitutional freedoms.

Seniors

We cannot turn our backs on the millions of seniors enrolled in Social Security or Medicare programs. Seniors in Kansas who have spent their entire lives contributing to these programs and our nation’s economy deserve to know their hard work will help them retire.

In order to save these programs and protect our seniors here in Kansas, one must be willing to work across the aisle to find solutions that will save and secure these programs for our children and grandchildren, as well as for our parents and grandparents. I fully recognize the need to preserve Social Security and Medicare and I will do what is necessary to ensure all seniors in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District will have access to the benefits and resources they deserve.

Delivering Results

Election cycle after election cycle, candidates promise us results but fail to deliver when they get to Washington. I am not interested in going to Washington to contribute to the same rigged-system that has failed Kansans and our nation for decades. My top priority will be representing your best interests and fighting for a smaller government, one that holds itself accountable and does not get in its own way.

Our Veterans

Serving our great nation in the U.S. Army for 10 years was, and will always be, my greatest privilege. Now, it would be my privilege to serve our nation’s veterans in Washington. First and foremost, the Federal Government must be willing to do what is necessary to restore accountability throughout all levels of the Department of Veterans Affairs so all veterans will be able to access the health care and the resources they deserve.

Our military men and women should be able to return home to a VA that respects their service and provides them with the care and support they deserve.

'National Debt Our nation’s national debt continues to grow by the second. Our children and grandchildren should not be left with a $20 trillion debt burden because our Federal Government could not practice fiscal discipline. Kansans deserve a representative in Congress that will use their hard earned tax dollars wisely and support common-sense policies that improves our current quality of life without ruining the quality of life for future generations by excessive debt.[26]

—Steve for Kansas[28]


Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Paul Davis Facebook

Republican Party Steve Watkins Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Kansas. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kansas with 56.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1864 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican 84.21 percent of the time and Democratic 15.78 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican all five times.[29]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kansas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[30][31]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 29 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 21.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 34 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points. Clinton won six districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 91 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 35.5 points. Trump won 11 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Lynn Jenkins (R) defeated Britani Potter (D) and James Houston Bales (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[32][33]

U.S. House, Kansas District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLynn Jenkins Incumbent 60.9% 181,228
     Democratic Britani Potter 32.6% 96,840
     Libertarian James Houston Bales 6.5% 19,333
Total Votes 297,401
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Lynn Jenkins (R) defeated Margie Wakefield (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLynn Jenkins Incumbent 57% 128,742
     Democratic Margie Wakefield 38.6% 87,153
     Libertarian Chris Clemmons 4.3% 9,791
Total Votes 225,686
Source: Kansas Secretary of State Official Results

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Kansas heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Republicans controlled both chambers of the Kansas State Legislature. They had a 85-40 majority in the state House and a 30-9 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Kansas had a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled both chambers of the state legislature and the governorship. Jeff Colyer served as governor; he succeeded Sam Brownback, who left office in January 2018 after being appointed ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom by Pres. Donald Trump.

2018 elections

See also: Kansas elections, 2018

Kansas held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Kansas
 KansasU.S.
Total population:2,906,721316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):81,7593,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:85.2%73.6%
Black/African American:5.8%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.8%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.3%3%
Hispanic/Latino:11.2%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:90.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:31%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$52,205$53,889
Persons below poverty level:15%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Kansas.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Kansas' three largest cities were Wichita (pop. est. 390,000), Overland Park (pop. est. 190,000), and Kansas City (pop. est. 150,000).[34]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Kansas from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Kansas Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Kansas every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Kansas 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 56.6% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 36.0% 20.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 59.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 37.9% 21.8%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 56.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.6% 15.0%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 62.0% Democratic Party John Kerry 36.6% 25.4%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 58.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 37.2% 20.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Kansas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Kansas 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Jerry Moran 62.1% Democratic Party Patrick Wiesner 32.2% 29.9%
2014 Republican Party Pat Roberts 53.1% Grey.png Greg Orman 42.5% 10.6%
2010 Republican Party Jerry Moran 70.0% Democratic Party Lisa Johnston 26.3% 43.7%
2008 Republican Party Pat Roberts 60.0% Democratic Party Jim Slattery 36.4% 23.6%
2004 Republican Party Sam Brownback 69.1% Democratic Party Lee Jones 27.4% 41.7%
2002 Republican Party Pat Roberts 82.5% Libertarian Party Steven Rosile 9.1% 73.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Kansas.

Election results (Governor), Kansas 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Sam Brownback 49.8% Democratic Party Paul Davis 46.1% 3.7%
2010 Republican Party Sam Brownback 63.2% Democratic Party Tom Holland 32.2% 31.0%
2006 Democratic Party Kathleen Sebelius 57.9% Republican Party Jim Barnett 40.4% 17.5%
2002 Democratic Party Kathleen Sebelius 52.9% Republican Party Tim Shallenburger 45.1% 7.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Kansas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Kansas 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2014 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2012 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2010 Republican Party 4 100% Democratic Party 0 0% R+4
2008 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3
2006 Republican Party 2 50.0% Democratic Party 2 50.0% Split
2004 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 3 75.0% Democratic Party 1 25.0% R+3

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Kansas Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Sixteen years of Republican trifectas

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. Roll Call, "DCCC Names First 11 Candidates in ‘Red to Blue’ Program," November 15, 2017
  2. Project Vote Smart, "Paul Davis' Biography," accessed November 18, 2014
  3. KSNT, "36 Republicans turn their backs on Steve Watkins to endorse Democrat Paul Davis," September 17, 2018
  4. 4.0 4.1 Davis for Kansas, "Issues," accessed September 18, 2018
  5. The Chanute Tribune, "Candidate for US House seat says he’s a ‘different Democrat,’" August 22, 2017
  6. Vote Smart, "Kelly Standley's Biography," accessed November 2, 2018
  7. Facebook, "Kelly Standley on July 22, 2018," accessed November 2, 2018
  8. 8.0 8.1 WIBW, "Former Democratic Party leader switches parties to run against Davis, Watkins," October 18, 2018
  9. 9.0 9.1 Facebook, "Kelly Standley's Facebook page," accessed November 2, 2018
  10. Kelly Standley's 2018 campaign website, "Home," accessed November 2, 2018
  11. 11.0 11.1 Steve for Kansas, "Issues," accessed September 18, 2018
  12. The Hutchington News, "Steve Watkins, R," April 15, 2018
  13. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  15. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 ProPublica, "Kansas’s 2nd District House Race - 2018 cycle," accessed October 29, 2018
  17. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  18. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  19. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  20. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  21. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  22. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  23. Lawrence Journal-World, "Vice President Pence stumps for 2nd District candidate Steve Watkins in Kansas," October 19, 2018
  24. WIBW, "36 Republicans cross party lines to endorse Paul Davis," September 17, 2018
  25. NRCC, "NRCC Adds Steve Watkins To Young Guns “Contenders," August 22, 2018
  26. 26.0 26.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  27. Steve for Kansas, "Issues," accessed August 6, 2018
  28. Steve for Kansas, "Issues," accessed August 6, 2018
  29. 270towin.com, "Kansas," accessed June 1, 2017
  30. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  31. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  32. Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidates for the 2016 Primary," accessed June 2, 2016
  33. Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  34. Kansas Demographics, "Kansas Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Ron Estes (R)
Republican Party (5)
Democratic Party (1)