Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2022
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| Kansas' 4th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: June 1, 2022 |
| Primary: August 2, 2022 General: November 8, 2022 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Kansas |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Kansas elections, 2022 U.S. Congress elections, 2022 U.S. Senate elections, 2022 U.S. House elections, 2022 |
All U.S. House districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Kansas, held elections in 2022. The general election was on November 8, 2022. The primary was scheduled for August 2, 2022. The filing deadline was June 1, 2022.
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
- Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary)
- Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary)
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated Bob Hernandez in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Ron Estes (R) | 63.3 | 144,889 |
 | Bob Hernandez (D) | 36.7 | 83,851 | |
| Total votes: 228,740 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Kyle Jacobs (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Bob Hernandez advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Bob Hernandez | 100.0 | 42,222 |
| Total votes: 42,222 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 2, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes | 100.0 | 102,915 |
| Total votes: 102,915 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Kansas
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.
Campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Estes | Republican Party | $1,877,364 | $1,777,955 | $943,573 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Bob Hernandez | Democratic Party | $43,266 | $36,305 | $-5,500 | As of December 31, 2022 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[1]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[2][3][4]
| Race ratings: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2022 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Ballot access requirements
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Kansas in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Kansas, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Kansas | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party | 2% of the party's total voter registration in the district | $1,760.00 | 6/1/2022 | Source |
| Kansas | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 4% of registered voters in the district, or 5,000, whichever is less | $20.00 | 8/1/2022 | Source |
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting.
- Effect of redistricting - How districts in the state changed as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2022 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
District map
Below was the map in use at the time of the election, enacted as part of the 2020 redistricting cycle, compared to the map in place before the election.
Kansas District 4
until January 2, 2023
Click a district to compare boundaries.
Kansas District 4
starting January 3, 2023
Click a district to compare boundaries.
Effect of redistricting
The table below details the results of the 2020 presidential election in each district at the time of the 2022 election and its political predecessor district.[5] This data was compiled by Daily Kos Elections.[6]
| 2020 presidential results by Congressional district, Kansas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | 2022 district | Political predecessor district | ||
Joe Biden 
|
Donald Trump 
|
Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump
| |
| Kansas' 1st | 34.1% | 63.7% | 28.1% | 69.7% |
| Kansas' 2nd | 40.7% | 57.0% | 41.3% | 56.3% |
| Kansas' 3rd | 51.2% | 46.7% | 54.3% | 43.7% |
| Kansas' 4th | 38.0% | 59.7% | 38.0% | 59.7% |
Competitiveness
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Kansas.
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Kansas in 2022. Information below was calculated on July 5, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Nine candidates filed to run in Kansas' four U.S. House districts, including four Democrats and five Republicans. That's 2.25 candidates per district, down from 4.75 in 2020 and six in 2018.
This was the first election to take place under new district lines following the 2020 census. Kansas was apportioned four districts, the same number it was apportioned after the 2010 census. The nine candidates who filed to run this year were the fewest since 2012, when nine candidates ran as well. That number was down from 2020, when 19 candidates filed to run, and 2018, when 24 candidates filed.
There were no open seats this year, down from one in both 2020 and 2018. No incumbents faced primary challengers for the first time since 2012. That number was down from one in 2020 and three in 2018.
Republican and Democratic candidates filed to run in all four districts, so no seats were guaranteed to either party. The Republican primary in the 3rd district was the only contested primary this year, a decade-low. That number was down from five contested primaries in 2020 and six in 2018.
Presidential elections
Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+14. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 14 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th the 98th most Republican district nationally.[7]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| 2020 presidential results in Kansas' 4th based on 2022 district lines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump
| |||
| 38.0% | 59.7% | |||
Presidential voting history
- See also: Presidential election in Kansas, 2020
Kansas presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 5 Democratic wins
- 26 Republican wins
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Demographics
The table below details demographic data in Kansas and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.
| Demographic Data for Kansas | ||
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | United States | |
| Population | 2,853,118 | 308,745,538 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 81,758 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 84.4% | 72.5% |
| Black/African American | 5.9% | 12.7% |
| Asian | 2.9% | 5.5% |
| Native American | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Other (single race) | 2.5% | 4.9% |
| Multiple | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 11.9% | 18% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate | 91% | 88% |
| College graduation rate | 33.4% | 32.1% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $59,597 | $62,843 |
| Persons below poverty level | 12% | 13.4% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2010). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2014-2019). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
State party control
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Kansas' congressional delegation as of November 2022.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Kansas, November 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Republican | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 4 | 6 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Kansas' top four state executive offices as of November 2022.
| State executive officials in Kansas, November 2022 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Laura Kelly
|
| Lieutenant Governor | David Toland
|
| Secretary of State | Scott Schwab
|
| Attorney General | Derek Schmidt
|
State legislature
The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Kansas State Legislature as of November 2022.
Kansas State Senate
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 11 | |
| Republican Party | 29 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 40 | |
Kansas House of Representatives
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 39 | |
| Republican Party | 86 | |
| Independent | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 125 | |
Trifecta control
As of November 2022, Kansas was a divided government, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.
Kansas Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas • Sixteen years of Republican trifectas
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
District history
2020
See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)
Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)
General election
General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated Laura Lombard in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes (R) | 63.7 | 203,432 |
 | Laura Lombard (D) | 36.3 | 116,166 | |
| Total votes: 319,598 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Laura Lombard advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Laura Lombard | 100.0 | 35,437 |
| Total votes: 35,437 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes | 100.0 | 87,877 |
| Total votes: 87,877 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated James Thompson in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes (R) | 59.4 | 144,248 |
 | James Thompson (D) | 40.6 | 98,445 | |
| Total votes: 242,693 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
James Thompson defeated Laura Lombard in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | James Thompson | 65.2 | 20,261 |
| Laura Lombard | 34.8 | 10,797 | |
| Total votes: 31,058 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4
Incumbent Ron Estes defeated Ron M. Estes in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ron Estes | 81.4 | 57,522 |
| Ron M. Estes | 18.6 | 13,159 | ||
| Total votes: 70,681 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2017
This election was widely regarded in the initial stages as a "safe Republican" seat. With a week to go, however, it was downgraded by some election analysts such as Inside Elections/Roll Call from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican".[8] Ballotpedia changed its ranking in the days leading up to the election to a "Lean R" seat. Ron Estes (R) defeated James Thompson (D), and Chris Rockhold (L) in the general election on April 11, 2017. No primary elections were held in the race; the candidates were chosen at their respective party nominating conventions in February. The election replaced Mike Pompeo (R), who was selected as director of the CIA.[9][10][11] According to Kansas' voter affiliation records, Thompson was a registered Republican until March 2016.[12]
The election was the first congressional election to take place since Donald Trump's election to the presidency in November 2016. Trump's initial popularity in the District was evident. The President won the 4th District in 2016 by 27 percentage points. Pompeo pulled a margin of victory of 31.1 points in his final re-election bid. However, Governor Sam Brownback's (R) unpopularity across the state and an internal Republican poll in the final few days showing Estes ahead by one point signaled to Democrats and Republicans across the country that this race was closer than expected. Ultimately the race was closer than initially expected, with Estes winning by a margin of roughly seven percent.[13] The last time a Democrat was elected from Kansas' 4th Congressional District was in 1992.
| U.S. House, Kansas District 4 Special Election, 2017 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican |  Ron Estes |
52.2% | 64,044 | |
| Democratic | James Thompson | 46% | 56,435 | |
| Libertarian | Chris Rockhold | 1.7% | 2,115 | |
| Total Votes | 122,594 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Daniel Giroux (D), Gordon Bakken (L), and Miranda Allen (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Pompeo faced no primary challenger, while Giroux defeated Robert Leon Tillman in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016.[14][15]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Pompeo Incumbent |
60.7% | 166,998 | |
| Democratic | Daniel Giroux | 29.6% | 81,495 | |
| Independent | Miranda Allen | 6.9% | 19,021 | |
| Libertarian | Gordon Bakken | 2.8% | 7,737 | |
| Total Votes | 275,251 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Daniel Giroux |
51.5% | 9,489 | ||
| Robert Leon Tillman | 48.5% | 8,936 | ||
| Total Votes | 18,425 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 4th Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Perry Schuckman (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Pompeo Incumbent |
67% | 138,757 | |
| Democratic | Perry Schuckman | 33% | 69,396 | |
| Total Votes | 208,153 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mike Pompeo Incumbent |
62.6% | 43,564 | ||
| Todd Tiahrt | 37.4% | 25,977 | ||
| Total Votes | 69,541 | |||
| Source: Kansas Secretary of State |
||||
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Political predecessor districts are determined primarily based on incumbents and where each chose to seek re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos Elections, "Daily Kos Elections 2020 presidential results by congressional district (old CDs vs. new CDs)," accessed May 12, 2022
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023
- ↑ Hotair, "Kansas closely watched today in first special election under Trump", April 11, 2017
- ↑ The Wichita Eagle, "Lawyer James Thompson wins Democratic nomination for Congress," February 11, 2017
- ↑ KSN.com, "Kansas Libertarians nominate Chris Rockhold for 4th district seat," February 11, 2017
- ↑ KWCH 12, "Ron Estes nominated as GOP candidate for 4th district seat," February 9, 2017
- ↑ This information was obtained by Ballotpedia through a phone call to the Sedgwick County Election Office and speaking with Melanie Callaway
- ↑ Kansas City Star, "Republicans sweat surprisingly close Kansas congressional race," April 10, 2017
- ↑ Kansas Secretary of State, "Candidates for the 2016 Primary," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
