Kansas' 4th Congressional District

Kansas' 4th Congressional District

Incumbent

Ron Estes

Assumed office: April 25, 2017

Kansas' 4th Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives is represented by Ron Estes (R).

As of the 2020 Census, Kansas representatives represented an average of 735,216 residents. After the 2010 Census, each member represented 715,953 residents.

Elections

• 2030
• 2028
• 2026
• 2024
• 2022
• 2020
• 2018

See also: Kansas's 4th Congressional District election, 2030

There are no official candidates yet for this election.

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2028

Note: At this time, Ballotpedia is combining all declared candidates for this election into one list under a general election heading. As primary election dates are published, this information will be updated to separate general election candidates from primary candidates as appropriate.

General election

The general election will occur on November 7, 2028.

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Michael Gaynor (R) is running in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 7, 2028.

		Candidate
		Michael Gaynor (R)

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	There are no incumbents in this race.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2026

Note: At this time, Ballotpedia is combining all declared candidates for this election into one list under a general election heading. As primary election dates are published, this information will be updated to separate general election candidates from primary candidates as appropriate.

General election

The general election will occur on November 3, 2026.

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R), Chris Carmichael (D), Ryan Gilbert (D), Jordan Mitchell (D), and Daniel Schneider (D) are running in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 3, 2026.

		Candidate
		Ron Estes (R)
		Chris Carmichael (D)
	Submit photo	Ryan Gilbert (D)
	Submit photo	Jordan Mitchell (D)
	Submit photo	Daniel Schneider (D)

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined.
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See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2024

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) defeated Esau Freeman (D) in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 5, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes (R)	65.0	198,465
		Esau Freeman (D)	35.0	106,632

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 305,097
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Esau Freeman (D) advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 6, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Esau Freeman	100.0	10,641

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 10,641
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Michael Soetaert (D)

Republican primary

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 6, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes	100.0	40,100

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 40,100
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2022

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) defeated Bob Hernandez (D) in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 8, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes (R)	63.3	144,889
		Bob Hernandez (D)	36.7	83,851

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 228,740
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Kyle Jacobs (Independent)

Democratic primary

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Bob Hernandez (D) advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 2, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Bob Hernandez	100.0	42,222

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 42,222
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 2, 2022.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes	100.0	102,915

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 102,915
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) defeated Laura Lombard (D) in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 3, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes (R)	63.7	203,432
		Laura Lombard (D)	36.3	116,166

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 319,598
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Laura Lombard (D) advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Laura Lombard	100.0	35,437

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 35,437
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes	100.0	87,877

---

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 87,877
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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See also: United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) defeated James Thompson (D) in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes (R)	59.4	144,248
		James Thompson (D)	40.6	98,445

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 242,6930
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

James Thompson (D) defeated Laura Lombard (D) in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		James Thompson	65.2	20,261
		Laura Lombard	34.8	10,797

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 31,058
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4

Incumbent Ron Estes (R) defeated Ron M. Estes (R) in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 4 on August 7, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Ron Estes	81.4	57,522
	Submit photo	Ron M. Estes	18.6	13,159

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 70,681
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Previous election results

2017

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District special election, 2017

This election was widely regarded in the initial stages as a "safe Republican" seat. With a week to go, however, it was downgraded by some election analysts such as Inside Elections/Roll Call from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican". Ballotpedia changed its ranking in the days leading up to the election to a "Lean R" seat. Ron Estes (R) defeated James Thompson (D), and Chris Rockhold (L) in the general election on April 11, 2017. No primary elections were held in the race; the candidates were chosen at their respective party nominating conventions in February. The election replaced Mike Pompeo (R), who was selected as director of the CIA. According to Kansas' voter affiliation records, Thompson was a registered Republican until March 2016.

The election was the first congressional election to take place since Donald Trump's election to the presidency in November 2016. Trump's initial popularity in the District was evident. The President won the 4th District in 2016 by 27 percentage points. Pompeo pulled a margin of victory of 31.1 points in his final re-election bid. However, Governor Sam Brownback's (R) unpopularity across the state and an internal Republican poll in the final few days showing Estes ahead by one point signaled to Democrats and Republicans across the country that this race was closer than expected. Ultimately the race was closer than initially expected, with Estes winning by a margin of roughly seven percent. The last time a Democrat was elected from Kansas' 4th Congressional District was in 1992.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 Special Election, 2017
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Ron Estes	52.2%	64,044
	Democratic	James Thompson	46%	56,435
	Libertarian	Chris Rockhold	1.7%	2,115
Total Votes				122,594
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2016

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Mike Pompeo (R) defeated Daniel Giroux (D), Gordon Bakken (L), and Miranda Allen (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Pompeo faced no primary challenger, while Giroux defeated Robert Leon Tillman in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Mike Pompeo Incumbent	60.7%	166,998
	Democratic	Daniel Giroux	29.6%	81,495
	Independent	Miranda Allen	6.9%	19,021
	Libertarian	Gordon Bakken	2.8%	7,737
Total Votes				275,251
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Daniel Giroux	51.5%	9,489
Robert Leon Tillman	48.5%	8,936
Total Votes		18,425
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Mike Pompeo (R) defeated challenger Perry Schuckman (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 General Election, 2014

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Mike Pompeo Incumbent	67%	138,757
	Democratic	Perry Schuckman	33%	69,396
Total Votes				208,153
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

General election candidates

• Mike Pompeo - Incumbent
• Perry Schuckman

August 5, 2014, primary results

Republican Primary

• Mike Pompeo - Incumbenta
• Todd Tiahrt - Former Representative

Democratic Primary

• Perry Schuckmana

2012

See also: Kansas' 4th Congressional District elections, 2012

The 4th Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012, in which incumbent Mike Pompeo (R) won re-election. He defeated Robert Leon Tillman (D) and Thomas Jefferson (L) in the general election.

General Results

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Mike Pompeo Incumbent	62.2%	161,094
	Democratic	Robert Leo Tillman	31.6%	81,770
	Libertarian	Thomas Jefferson	6.2%	16,058
Total Votes				258,922
Source: Kansas Secretary of State "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

Primary results

The primary took place on August 7.

Democratic Primary

Kansas' 4th Congressional District Democratic Primary, 2012

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Robert Tillman	70.8%	11,224
Esau Freeman	29.2%	4,618
Total Votes		15,842

2010
On November 2, 2010, Mike Pompeo won election to the United States House. He defeated Raj Goyle (D), Shawn Smith (L), and Susan G. Ducey (Reform) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4 General Election, 2010
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Mike Pompeo	58.8%	119,575
	Democratic	Raj Goyle	36.5%	74,143
	Libertarian	Shawn Smith	2.3%	4,624
	Reform	Susan G. Ducey	2.5%	5,041
Total Votes				203,383

Polls 2010

A KWCH poll commissioned in August 2010 showed a close race between Pompeo and Democratic candidate Raj Goyle.

Kansas' Congressional District 4, 2010
Poll	Mike Pompeo (R)	Raj Goyle (D)	David Moffett (L)	Susan Ducey (RP)	Undecided	Margin of Error	Sample Size
SurveyUSA (August 9-11, 2010)	49%	42%	4%	1%	5%	+/-4.1	604
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

2008
On November 4, 2008, Todd Tiahrt won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Donald Betts, Jr. (D), Steve A. Rosile (L) and Susan G. Ducey (Reform Party) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Todd Tiahrt incumbent	63.4%	177,617
	Democratic	Donald Betts, Jr.	32.4%	90,706
	Libertarian	Steve A. Rosile	1.9%	5,345
	Reform Party	Susan G. Ducey	2.3%	6,441
Total Votes				280,109

2006
On November 7, 2006, Todd Tiahrt won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Garth J. McGinn (D) and Joy R. Holt (Reform Party) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4, 2006
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Todd Tiahrt incumbent	63.5%	116,386
	Democratic	Garth J. McGinn	33.9%	62,166
	Reform Party	Joy R. Holt	2.5%	4,655
Total Votes				183,207

2004
On November 2, 2004, Todd Tiahrt won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Michael Kinard (D) and David Loomis (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4, 2004
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Todd Tiahrt incumbent	66.1%	173,151
	Democratic	Michael Kinard	31.1%	81,388
	Libertarian	David Loomis	2.8%	7,376
Total Votes				261,915

2002
On November 5, 2002, Todd Tiahrt won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Carlos Nolla (D) and Maike Warren (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4, 2002
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Todd Tiahrt incumbent	60.6%	115,691
	Democratic	Carlos Nolla	37%	70,656
	Libertarian	Maike Warren	2.4%	4,616
Total Votes				190,963

2000
On November 7, 2000, Todd Tiahrt won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Carlos Nolla (D) and Steven A. Rosile (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 4, 2000
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Todd Tiahrt incumbent	54.3%	131,781
	Democratic	Carlos Nolla	42.1%	101,980
	Libertarian	Steven A. Rosile	3.6%	8,732
Total Votes				242,493

District map

Redistricting

2020-2021

See also: Redistricting in Kansas after the 2020 census

On May 18, 2022, the Kansas Supreme Court overturned a district court's ruling that found that the state's enacted congressional district boundaries were unconstitutional. In a two-page order, Justice Caleb Stegall wrote for the court, "A majority of the court holds that, on the record before us, plaintiffs have not prevailed on their claims that Substitute for Senate Bill 355 violates the Kansas Constitution." On April 25, 2022, Wyandotte County District Court Judge Bill Klapper had struck down Kansas' enacted congressional map. The judge's ruling stated, "The Court has no difficulty finding, as a factual matter, that Ad Astra 2 is an intentional, effective pro-Republican gerrymander that systemically dilutes the votes of Democratic Kansans."

Klapper's opinion also said that the state's new district boundaries "intentionally and effectively dilutes minority votes in violation of the Kansas Constitution’s guarantee of equal protection." The ruling had enjoined Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab (R) and local election officials from using the previously enacted maps for the state's upcoming elections and directed the legislature to "enact a remedial plan in conformity with this opinion as expeditiously as possible."

Kansas enacted congressional district boundaries on February 9, 2022, when both the state Senate and House overrode Gov. Laura Kelly's (D) veto of a redistricting plan that the legislature passed. The House of Representatives overrode Kelly’s veto 85-37 on February 9, 2022, with all votes in favor by Republicans, and 36 Democrats and one Republican voting to sustain the veto. The Senate overrode Kelly’s veto 27-11 strictly along party lines on February 8, 2022, with all votes in favor by Republicans and all votes opposed by Democrats. The state Senate originally approved the congressional district map proposal on January 21, 2022, and the state House of Representatives approved it on January 26, 2022. Kelly had vetoed the congressional map on February 3, 2022.

Andrew Bahl of the Topeka Capital-Journal wrote that the "maps were hotly contested, largely for the decision to split Wyandotte County and put part of the Kansas City, Kan., area in the 2nd Congressional District, a move that endangers the state's lone Democrat in Congress, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, and, Democrats argue, unfairly divides minority communities." John Hanna of the Associated Press wrote that the congressional district plan "politically hurts the state’s only Democrat in Congress, likely plunging Kansas into a national legal brawl amid the contest for control of the U.S. House."

How does redistricting in Kansas work? In Kansas, the state legislature draws both congressional and state legislative district lines. Redistricting plans are subject to veto by the governor. State legislative district maps must be submitted for final approval to the Kansas Supreme Court, which must determine whether the maps are constitutional. If the court rules that the maps violate the law, the state legislature may attempt to draw the lines again. There are no such provisions in place for congressional redistricting.

In 2002, Kansas adopted guidelines for congressional and state legislative redistricting. These guidelines ask that "both congressional and state legislative districts be contiguous, as compact as possible, and recognize and consider communities of common 'social, cultural, racial, ethnic, and economic' interests." In addition, these guidelines stipulate that state legislative districts should "preserve existing political subdivisions and avoid contests between incumbents to the extent possible." Congressional districts should "preserve whole counties and maintain the core of existing districts where possible." The state legislature may amend these guidelines at its discretion.

2020

2024

2010-2011

This is the 4th Congressional District of Kansas after the 2001 redistricting process.

See also: Redistricting in Kansas after the 2010 census

In 2012, the Kansas State Legislature re-drew the congressional districts based on updated population information from the 2010 census.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

2026

Heading into the 2026 elections, based on results from the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+12. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th the 103rd most Republican district nationally.

2024

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+14. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 14 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th the 94th most Republican district nationally.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 59.7%-38.0%.

2022

Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+14. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 14 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th the 98th most Republican district nationally.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 38.0% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 59.7%.

2018

Heading into the 2018 elections, based on results from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 4th Congressional District the 78th most Republican nationally.

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.

See also

• Redistricting in Kansas
• Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2024
• Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2022
• Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020
• Kansas' 4th Congressional District election, 2018

External links

• GovTrack District 4

Footnotes

[show]

Kansas' current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Roger Marshall (R)

Jerry Moran (R)

Representatives

District 1

Tracey Mann (R)

District 2

Derek Schmidt (R)

District 3

Sharice Davids (D)

District 4

Ron Estes (R)

Republican Party (5)

Democratic Party (1)