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Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Kentucky's 1st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
James Comer Jr. (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Kentucky
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Kentucky's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th
Kentucky elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Kentucky, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent James Comer Jr. won election in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
January 10, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican James Comer Jr., who was first elected in 2016.

Kentucky's 1st Congressional District is located in western Kentucky and stretches across the southern portion of the state. It includes Adair, Allen, Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Casey Christian, Clinton, Crittenden, Cumberland, Fulton, Graves, Henderson, Hickman, Hopkins, Livingston, Logan, Lyon, Marion, Marshall, McCracken, McLean, Metcalfe, Monroe, Muhlenberg, Ohio, Russell, Simpson, Taylor, Todd, Trigg, Union, and Webster counties and a part of Washington County.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Kentucky's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 25.5 25
Republican candidate Republican Party 73.1 75
Difference 47.6 50

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Kentucky modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee/mail-in voting eligibility was extended to all voters "concerned with contracting or spreading COVID-19."

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Incumbent James Comer Jr. defeated James Rhodes in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of James Comer Jr.
James Comer Jr. (R)
 
75.0
 
246,329
James Rhodes (D)
 
25.0
 
82,141

Total votes: 328,470
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. James Rhodes advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent James Comer Jr. advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 120 Kentucky counties—0.83 percent—is a pivot county. Pivot counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Elliott County, Kentucky 44.13% 2.50% 25.17%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kentucky with 62.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 32.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, Kentucky voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 26.3 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kentucky voted Republican all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kentucky. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 42 points. Trump won 20 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+23, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 23 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kentucky's 1st Congressional District the 25th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.92. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.92 points toward that party.[6]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]

Race ratings: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in Kentucky in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Kentucky, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Kentucky 1st Congressional District All parties 2 Fixed number $500.00 Fixed number 1/28/2020 Source
Kentucky 1st Congressional District Unaffiliated 400 Fixed number $500.00 Fixed number 6/2/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Incumbent James Comer Jr. defeated Paul Walker in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of James Comer Jr.
James Comer Jr. (R)
 
68.6
 
172,167
Image of Paul Walker
Paul Walker (D)
 
31.4
 
78,849

Total votes: 251,016
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Paul Walker defeated Alonzo Pennington in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Paul Walker
Paul Walker
 
81.2
 
75,148
Image of Alonzo Pennington
Alonzo Pennington
 
18.8
 
17,398

Total votes: 92,546
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1

Incumbent James Comer Jr. advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 1 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
Image of James Comer Jr.
James Comer Jr.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Kentucky's 1st Congressional District seat was left open following incumbent Ed Whitfield's decision to retire. James Comer (R) defeated Sam Gaskins (D) and Terry McIntosh (Write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Comer defeated Jason Batts, Miles Caughey Jr., and Michael Pape in the Republican primary. On the other side of the aisle, Sam Gaskins ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[11][12][13]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJames Comer 72.6% 216,959
     Democratic Sam Gaskins 27.3% 81,710
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 332
Total Votes 299,001
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State


U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJames Comer 60.6% 24,342
Michael Pape 23.3% 9,357
Jason Batts 13.9% 5,578
Miles Caughey 2.2% 896
Total Votes 40,173
Source: Kentucky State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Ed Whitfield (R) defeated Charles Kendall Hatchett (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kentucky District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngEd Whitfield Incumbent 73.1% 173,022
     Democratic Charles Kendall Hatchett 26.9% 63,596
Total Votes 236,618
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Andy Barr (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (1)