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Kentucky's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary)

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Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 25, 2022
Primary: May 17, 2022 (canceled)
General: November 8, 2022
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Kentucky
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2022): R+19
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
Kentucky's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th
Kentucky elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

A Democratic Party primary was scheduled to take place on May 17, 2022, in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District to determine which Democratic candidate would run in the district's general election on November 8, 2022. The primary was canceled after only one candidate filed.

Matthew Lehman advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
January 25, 2022
May 17, 2022
November 8, 2022


A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Kentucky utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[1][2][3]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:

HOTP-Dem-Ad-1-small.png

Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Matthew Lehman advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 4.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[5] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Matthew Lehman Democratic Party $304,094 $298,074 $6,020 As of December 31, 2022

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Kentucky in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Kentucky, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Kentucky U.S. House Ballot-qualified party 2 $500.00 1/25/2022 Source
Kentucky U.S. House Unaffiliated 400 $500.00 6/7/2022 Source

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

  • District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting.
  • Effect of redistricting - How districts in the state changed as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census.
  • Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2022 U.S. House elections in the state.
  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
  • State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Below was the map in use at the time of the election, enacted as part of the 2020 redistricting cycle, compared to the map in place before the election.

Kentucky District 4
until January 2, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.

Kentucky District 4
starting January 3, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.


Effect of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Kentucky after the 2020 census

The table below details the results of the 2020 presidential election in each district at the time of the 2022 election and its political predecessor district.[6] This data was compiled by Daily Kos Elections.[7]

2020 presidential results by Congressional district, Kentucky
District 2022 district Political predecessor district
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Kentucky's 1st 27.9% 70.6% 25.5% 73.1%
Kentucky's 2nd 30.8% 67.5% 30.6% 67.6%
Kentucky's 3rd 60.2% 37.9% 60.0% 38.1%
Kentucky's 4th 32.8% 65.4% 33.4% 64.7%
Kentucky's 5th 19.7% 79.1% 18.6% 80.1%
Kentucky's 6th 43.5% 54.5% 44.5% 53.6%

Competitiveness

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Kentucky.

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Kentucky in 2022. Information below was calculated on Feb. 22, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Thirty-one candidates filed to run for Kentucky's six U.S. House districts in 2022, including nine Democrats and 22 Republicans. This equals 5.2 candidates per district, the most candidates per district since 2014.

This was the first candidate filing deadline under new district lines adopted during the state's decennial redistricting process. Kentucky was apportioned six districts, the same number it received after the 2010 census.

One district—Kentucky's 3rd—was left open with Rep. John Yarmuth (D) retiring from politics. Yarmuth first won election in 2006 after defeating Rep. Anne Northup (R). The 2022 filing deadline marked the first time since 1994 that the district had been left open. The 3rd District drew the largest number of major party candidate filings overall: two Democrats and seven Republicans.

The remaining five incumbents—all Republicans—filed for re-election. Of those five, four drew primary challengers, the same number as 2020.

Eight of the 12 possible major party primaries (67%) drew more than one candidate leaving them contested. This represents more contested primaries than in 2020 and the same number as 2018.

Presidential elections

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kentucky's 4th the 44th most Republican district nationally.[8]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Kentucky's 4th based on 2022 district lines
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
32.8% 65.4%

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Kentucky, 2020

Kentucky presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 16 Democratic wins
  • 15 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D D D D D D R R D D D D D D R R D R R D R R R D D R R R R R R


Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Kentucky and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Kentucky
Kentucky United States
Population 4,505,836 331,449,281
Land area (sq mi) 39,491 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 86.2% 70.4%
Black/African American 8.1% 12.6%
Asian 1.5% 5.6%
Native American 0.2% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.2%
Other (single race) 1.1% 5.1%
Multiple 2.8% 5.2%
Hispanic/Latino 3.8% 18.2%
Education
High school graduation rate 87.2% 88.5%
College graduation rate 25% 32.9%
Income
Median household income $52,238 $64,994
Persons below poverty level 16.6% 12.8%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2015-2020).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


State party control

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Kentucky's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Kentucky, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 1 1
Republican 2 5 7
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 6 8

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Kentucky's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Kentucky, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Democratic Party Andy Beshear
Lieutenant Governor Democratic Party Jacqueline Coleman
Secretary of State Republican Party Michael Adams
Attorney General Republican Party Daniel Cameron

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Kentucky General Assembly as of November 2022.

Kentucky State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 8
     Republican Party 29
     Vacancies 1
Total 38

Kentucky House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 25
     Republican Party 75
     Vacancies 0
Total 100

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Kentucky was a divided government, with Democrats controlling the governorship and Republican majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Kentucky Party Control: 1992-2022
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," February 06, 2024
  2. ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  3. ↑ Kentucky State Board of Elections,"Key Information," accessed July 26, 2024
  4. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  5. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  6. ↑ Political predecessor districts are determined primarily based on incumbents and where each chose to seek re-election.
  7. ↑ Daily Kos Elections, "Daily Kos Elections 2020 presidential results by congressional district (old CDs vs. new CDs)," accessed May 17, 2022
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023


Kentucky's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Mitch McConnell (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Andy Barr (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (1)


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