Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election, 2020

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Kentucky's 6th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Andy Barr (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Voting in Kentucky
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Kentucky's 6th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th
Kentucky elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 6th Congressional District of Kentucky, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Andy Barr won election in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 6.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
January 10, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Andy Barr, who was first elected in 2012.

Kentucky's 6th Congressional District is based in central Kentucky and contains the cities of Lexington (including its suburbs), Richmond, and Frankfort, the state capital. Anderson, Bath, Bourbon, Clark, Estill, Fayette, Fleming, Franklin, Madison, Menifee, Montgomery, Nicholas, Powell, Robertson, Scott, Wolfe, and Woodford counties, as well as portions of Harrison and Jessamine counties, are included in the district.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 44.5 41
Republican candidate Republican Party 53.6 57.3
Difference 9.1 16.3

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Kentucky modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee/mail-in voting eligibility was extended to all voters "concerned with contracting or spreading COVID-19."

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

Incumbent Andy Barr defeated Josh Hicks and Frank Harris in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Andy Barr
Andy Barr (R)
 
57.3
 
216,948
Image of Josh Hicks
Josh Hicks (D) Candidate Connection
 
41.0
 
155,011
Image of Frank Harris
Frank Harris (L)
 
1.7
 
6,491

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 378,450
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

Josh Hicks defeated Daniel Kemph in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Josh Hicks
Josh Hicks Candidate Connection
 
72.4
 
81,305
Image of Daniel Kemph
Daniel Kemph Candidate Connection
 
27.6
 
31,064

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 112,369
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

Incumbent Andy Barr defeated Chuck Eddy and Geoff M. Young in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Andy Barr
Andy Barr
 
90.7
 
62,706
Image of Chuck Eddy
Chuck Eddy
 
5.3
 
3,636
Image of Geoff M. Young
Geoff M. Young
 
4.0
 
2,765

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 69,107
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

Frank Harris advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on March 7, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Frank Harris
Frank Harris (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 120 Kentucky counties—0.83 percent—is a pivot county. Pivot counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Elliott County, Kentucky 44.13% 2.50% 25.17%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kentucky with 62.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 32.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, Kentucky voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 26.3 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kentucky voted Republican all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kentucky. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 24.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 18 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 82 out of 100 state House districts in Kentucky with an average margin of victory of 42 points. Trump won 20 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kentucky's 6th Congressional District the 147th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.92. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.92 points toward that party.[6]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[7]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[8][9][10]

Race ratings: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 6th Congressional District candidates in Kentucky in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Kentucky, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Kentucky 6th Congressional District All parties 2 Fixed number $500.00 Fixed number 1/28/2020 Source
Kentucky 6th Congressional District Unaffiliated 400 Fixed number $500.00 Fixed number 6/2/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

Incumbent Andy Barr defeated Amy McGrath, Frank Harris, Rikka Wallin, and James Germalic in the general election for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Andy Barr
Andy Barr (R)
 
51.0
 
154,468
Image of Amy McGrath
Amy McGrath (D)
 
47.8
 
144,736
Image of Frank Harris
Frank Harris (L)
 
0.7
 
2,150
Image of Rikka Wallin
Rikka Wallin (Independent)
 
0.3
 
1,011
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
James Germalic (Independent)
 
0.2
 
523

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 302,888
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Amy McGrath
Amy McGrath
 
48.7
 
48,860
Image of Jim Gray
Jim Gray
 
40.5
 
40,684
Image of Reggie Thomas
Reggie Thomas
 
7.2
 
7,226
Image of Geoff M. Young
Geoff M. Young
 
1.6
 
1,574
Image of Daniel Kemph
Daniel Kemph
 
1.2
 
1,240
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Theodore Green
 
0.8
 
835

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 100,419
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6

Incumbent Andy Barr defeated Chuck Eddy in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kentucky District 6 on May 22, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Andy Barr
Andy Barr
 
83.8
 
40,514
Image of Chuck Eddy
Chuck Eddy
 
16.2
 
7,858

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 48,372
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Andy Barr (R) won re-election to his third term, defeating challenger Nancy Jo Kemper (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Barr defeated Roger Brill in the Republican primary, while Kemper defeated Geoff Young to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on May 17, 2016.[11][12]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Barr Incumbent 61.1% 202,099
     Democratic Nancy Jo Kemper 38.9% 128,728
Total Votes 330,827
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State


U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Barr Incumbent 84.5% 25,212
Roger Brill 15.5% 4,608
Total Votes 29,820
Source: Kentucky State Board of Elections
U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngNancy Jo Kemper 80.1% 63,440
Geoff Young 19.9% 15,772
Total Votes 79,212
Source: Kentucky State Board of Elections

2014

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 6th Congressional District of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Andy Barr (R) defeated challenger Elisabeth Jensen (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Barr Incumbent 60% 147,404
     Democratic Elisabeth Jensen 40% 98,290
Total Votes 245,694
Source: Kentucky Secretary of State

General election candidates


May 20, 2014, primary results

Republican Party Republican Primary

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Failed to file

Withdrew from race

2012

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District elections, 2012

The 6th Congressional District of Kentucky held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Republican Andy Barr defeated incumbent Ben Chandler in the election.[19]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngAndy Barr 50.6% 153,222
     Democratic Ben Chandler Incumbent 46.7% 141,438
     Independent Randolph Vance 2.8% 8,340
Total Votes 303,000
Source: Kentucky Board of Elections "2012 General Election Official Vote Totals"

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Garland "Andy" Barr, (R), C. Wes Collins (Write-In) and Randolph S. Vance (Write-In) in the general election.[20]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler incumbent 50.1% 119,812
     Republican Garland "Andy" Barr 49.8% 119,164
     Write-in C. Wes Collins 0.1% 225
     Write-in Randolph S. Vance 0% 22
Total Votes 239,223

2008

On November 4, 2008, Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Jon Larson (R) in the general election.[21]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler incumbent 64.7% 203,764
     Republican Jon Larson 35.3% 111,378
Total Votes 315,142

2006

On November 7, 2006, Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Paul Ard (L) in the general election.[22]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler incumbent 85.5% 158,765
     Libertarian Paul Ard 14.5% 27,015
Total Votes 185,780

2004

On November 2, 2004, Ben Chandler won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Tom Buford (R), Mark Gailey (L) and Stacy Abner (Constitution Party) in the general election.[23]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Chandler incumbent 58.6% 175,355
     Republican Tom Buford 40% 119,716
     Libertarian Mark Gailey 0.6% 1,758
     Constitution Party Stacy Abner 0.8% 2,388
Total Votes 299,217

2002

On November 5, 2002, Ernie Fletcher won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Gatewood Galbraith (I) and Mark Gailey (L) in the general election.[24]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngErnie Fletcher incumbent 72% 115,622
     Independent Gatewood Galbraith 26% 41,753
     Libertarian Mark Gailey 2.1% 3,313
Total Votes 160,688

2000

On November 7, 2000, Ernie Fletcher won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Scotty Baesler (D), Gatewood Galbraith (I) and Joseph Novak (L) in the general election.[25]

U.S. House, Kentucky District 6 General Election, 2000
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngErnie Fletcher incumbent 52.8% 142,971
     Democratic Scotty Baesler 34.8% 94,167
     Independent Gatewood Galbraith 12% 32,436
     Libertarian Joseph Novak 0.5% 1,229
Total Votes 270,803

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "Kentucky," accessed June 1, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  8. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  11. ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State," accessed January 27, 2016
  12. ↑ The New York Times, "Kentucky Results," May 17, 2016
  13. ↑ Kentucky.com "Education advocate Elisabeth Jensen to challenge U.S. Rep. Andy Barr" accessed June 19, 2013
  14. ↑ Pure Politics, "Lexington Democrat Geoff Young first to file to run for Congress," accessed December 4, 2013
  15. ↑ Kentucky Secretary of State Elections Division, "Candidate List," accessed January 29,l 2014
  16. ↑ CN|2 "Democrat Michael Coblenz announces candidacy for 6th Congressional District race" accessed July 19, 2013
  17. ↑ Kentucky.com, "Joe Palumbo withdraws from Central Kentucky congressional race," accessed November 11, 2013
  18. ↑ CN|2 "Joe Palumbo running for Democratic nomination for 6th Congressional District" accessed July 19, 2013
  19. ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, Kentucky"
  20. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  21. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  22. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  23. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  24. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  25. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013


Kentucky's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Mitch McConnell (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Andy Barr (R)
Republican Party (7)
Democratic Party (1)


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