Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Arizona elections in 2014

June 12, 2014

2014 Arizona Legislative Lowdown
Table of Contents
Majority control Margin of victory Competitiveness
Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot measures • State executive officials • School boards State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate

By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

Independent candidate Tom O'Halleran in District 6 is looking to make history by becoming the first person not affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties to win election to the Arizona State Legislature. O'Halleran, a former member of both the state senate and state house, switched his registration from Republican to Independent in May 2014. He cited Republicans' inability to tackle specific issues even when holding a majority as his reason for the switch.

May 28 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Arizona State Senate and Arizona House of Representatives. Elections in 30 Senate districts and 60 House districts will consist of a primary election on August 26, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.

See also: 2014's state legislative elections, Arizona State Senate elections and Arizona House of Representatives elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds a majority in both state legislative chambers. Arizona's office of Governor is held by Jan Brewer (R), making the state one of 23 with a Republican state government trifecta.

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is four seats, or 13.3 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 19 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Arizona State Senate
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	13	13
	Republican Party	17	17
Total		30	30

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the House is twelve seats, or 20.0 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 24 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

Arizona House of Representatives
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	24	22
	Republican Party	36	38
Total		60	60

2015 → ← 2013
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Ballot access for major and minor party candidates • Statewide elections, 2014 • State Senate elections • State House elections • State executive official elections • 2014 ballot measures

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

• Is the incumbent running for re-election?
• If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
• Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In Arizona's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:

• There are 28 open seats (31.1%) in the two chambers.
• A total of 26 incumbents (41.9%) face a primary challenger.
• 43 districts (47.8%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.

Comparing Arizona Competitiveness over the Years
Year	% Incs retiring	% incs rank	% Incs facing primary	% Incs primary rank	% seats with 2 MPC	% seats with 2 MPC rank	Overall Index	Overall Index Rank
2010	44.4%	4	50.0%	5	75.6%	16	56.7	3
2012	24.4%	19	45.8%	3	61.1%	26	43.8	12
2014	31.1%	Pending	41.9%	Pending	47.8%	Pending	40.3	Pending

Senate

The following table details competitiveness in the Arizona State Senate.

Arizona Senate Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
23.3%	23.3%	63.3%	36.6

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 11 of the 30 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. Six Democrats and five Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances. Candidates from both major parties will face off in the general election in 19 of the 30 districts up for election.

Competitive

• District 8: Incumbent Barbara McGuire (D) will face off against the winner of the Republican primary in the general election. Irene Littleton will face Alan Pease and Harold Vangilder in the primary. McGuire won the general election by a margin of victory of 3 percent in 2012.

Mildly competitive

• District 6: Incumbent Chester Crandell (R) will face off against Tom O'Halleran (I) in the general election. Crandell won the general election by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 10: Incumbent David Bradley (D) will face off against Mark Morrison (R) the general election. Bradley won the general election by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
• District 18: Jane Hydrick (D) will face the winner of the Republican primary in the general election. Representative Jeff Dial will face Tom Morrissey in the primary. Incumbent John McComish is not running. He won the general election by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.

Primary challenges

A total of 7 incumbents will face primary competition on August 26. Seven incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 16 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state senators facing primary competition are:

• District 3: Democratic incumbent Olivia Cajero Bedford will face Salomon Baldenegro.
• District 7: Incumbent Carlyle Begay (D) will face Eric Descheenie and Jamescita Peshlakai.
• District 12: Incumbent Don Shooter (R) will face Toby Farmer.
• District 15: Republican incumbent Nancy K. Barto will face David Ryan.
• District 16: Republican incumbent David Farnsworth will face Taylor McArthur.
• District 20: Republican incumbent Kimberly Yee will face Justin Henry.
• District 25: Republican incumbent Bob Worsley will face Ralph Heap.

Retiring incumbents

Seven incumbent senators, three Democrats and four Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 23 (76.6%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Al Melvin	Republican	Senate District 11
John McComish	Republican	Senate District 18
Anna Tovar	Democratic	Senate District 19
Rick Murphy	Republican	Senate District 21
Michele Reagan	Republican	Senate District 23
Leah Landrum Taylor	Democratic	Senate District 27
Steve Gallardo	Democratic	Senate District 29

House

The following table details competitiveness in the Arizona House of Representatives.

Arizona House Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
35.0%	31.7%	40.0%	35.6

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 36 (60.0%) of the 60 seats up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 16 Democrats and 20 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 24 (40.0%) of the 60 seats up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of 19 incumbents will face primary competition on August 26. Twenty-one incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 20 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state representatives facing primary competition are:

• District 1: Incumbent Karen Fann will face Noel Campbell, Linda Gray and Sean Englund in the Republican primary.
• District 4: Incumbent Lisa Otondo will face Charlene Fernandez and Jose Suarez in the Democratic primary.
• District 5: Incumbent Sonny Borrelli will face Regina Cobb, Sam Medrano and George Schnittgrund in the Republican primary.
• District 8: Incumbents Frank Pratt and T.J. Shope will face Wayne Bachmann and Darla Dawald in the Republican primary.
• District 13: Incumbents Darin Mitchell and Steve Montenegro will face Diane Landis in the Republican primary.
• District 14: Incumbents David Gowan and David Stevens will face Susan Syfert in the Republican primary.
• District 15: Incumbents John Allen and Heather Carter will face David Burnell Smith in the Republican primary.
• District 16: Incumbent Doug Coleman will face John Fillmore and Adam Stevens in the Republican primary.
• District 18: Incumbent Bob Robson will face John King, Jill Norgaard and David Pheanis in the Republican primary.
• District 20: Incumbent Paul Boyer will face Bill Adams and Thurane Aung Khin in the Republican primary.
• District 21: Incumbent Rick Gray will face Bryan Hackbarth and Tony Rivero in the Republican primary.
• District 23: Incumbent Michelle Ugenti will face Effie Carlson, Jay Lawrence and Bob Littlefield in the Republican primary.
• District 24: Incumbent Lela Alston will face Richard Bauer and Ken Clark in the Democratic primary.
• District 27: Incumbent Norma A. Munoz will face Reginald Bolding, Marcelino Quinonez and Rebecca Rios in the Democratic primary.
• District 28: Incumbent Kate Brophy McGee will face Shawnna Bolick and Mary Hamway in the Republican primary.

Retiring incumbents

Twenty-one incumbent representatives, eight Democrats and thirteen Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 39 (65.0%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Andy Tobin	Republican	House District 1
Juan Carlos Escamilla	Democratic	House District 4
Doris Goodale	Republican	House District 5
Brenda Barton	Republican	House District 6
Albert Hale	Democratic	House District 7
Jamescita Peshlakai	Democratic	House District 7
Adam Kwasman	Republican	House District 11
Steve Smith	Republican	House District 11
Kelly Townsend	Republican	House District 16
Tom Forese	Republican	House District 17
Jeff Dial	Republican	House District 18
Lupe Contreras	Democratic	House District 19
Carl Seel	Democratic	House District 20
Debbie Lesko	Republican	House District 21
John Kavanagh	Republican	House District 23
Chad Campbell	Democratic	House District 24
Justin Olson	Republican	House District 25
Justin Pierce	Republican	House District 25
Catherine H. Miranda	Democratic	House District 27
Lydia Hernandez	Democratic	House District 29
Martin Quezada	Republican	House District 29

See also

• Arizona elections, 2014
• State legislative elections, 2014
• Arizona State Senate elections, 2014
• Arizona House of Representatives elections, 2014

External links

• Arizona Secretary of State - Official primary candidate list

Footnotes

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