Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive California elections in 2014

March 31, 2014

2014 California Legislative Lowdown
Table of Contents
Majority control Margin of victory Competitiveness
Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot measures • State executive officials • School boards State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate

By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

Although maintaining a Democratic majority in both chambers of the California State Legislature is not in question in 2014, a supermajority for the majority party is not a guarantee. Leland Yee's (D) arrest has left the Senate one vote short of a supermajority, placing an extra emphasis on the November elections. Andy Vidak (R), who won a 2013 special election in an overwhelmingly Democratic district, provides hope for the state's Republican Party that the supermajority can be broken. Vidak attributed his success to breaking with the national platform and focusing on "common sense" local issues. Now other legislative candidates are hoping to use that formula to gain a foothold in the capitol, with Chairman Jim Brulte having his candidates creating a message that resonates with his or her constituents rather than simply sticking to the national platform." Denying the Democrats a supermajority in both chambers would allow Republicans to have a voice in major policy debate.

March 7 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for California State Senate and California State Assembly. Elections in 20 Senate districts and 80 Assembly districts will consist of a primary election on June 3, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.

See also: 2014's state legislative elections, California State Senate elections and California State Assembly elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Democratic Party holds the majority in both state legislative chambers. California's office of Governor is held by Jerry Brown (D), making the state one of 14 with a Democratic state government trifecta.

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is 17 seats, or 85 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 13 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot.

California State Senate
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	27	25
	Republican Party	12	14
	Vacancy	1	1
Total		40	40

The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is 30 seats, or 37.5 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 60 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot. In 2012, a total of three districts had a margin of victory in the general election of 5 percent or less. Another seven districts had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.

California State Assembly
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	55	52
	Republican Party	24	28
	Vacancy	1	0
Total		80	80

2015 → ← 2013
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Margin of victory

Senate

20 seats in the Senate were up for election in 2012. None of those districts are up for election in 2014.

House

All 80 seats in the Assembly were up for election in 2012. Three of those districts held competitive elections with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Another five districts held mildly competitive elections with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. One district that held a competitive election in 2012 has only one major party candidate in 2014.

The districts with elections in 2014 which held competitive or mildly competitive elections in 2012 are:

Competitive

• District 36: Incumbent Steve Fox (D) will face Kermit F. Franklin (D), JD Kennedy (R), Tom Lackey (R) and Suzette M. Martinez (R) in the blanket primary. Fox won by a margin of victory of 0.1 percent in 2012.
• District 40: Arthur Bustamonte (D), Kathleen Henry (D), Melissa O'Donnell (D) and Marc Steinorth (R) will face off in the blanket primary for the seat being vacated by incumbent Mike Morrell (R). Morrell won by a margin of victory of 0.8 percent in 2012.
• District 65: Incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) will face Young Kim (R) in the blanket primary. Quirk-Silva won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.

Mildly Competitive

• District 8: Incumbent Ken Cooley (D) will face Douglas Haaland (R) and Janice Marlae Bonser (L) in the blanket primary. Cooley won by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
• District 32: Incumbent Rudy Salas (D) will face Romeo Agbalog (R) and Pedro Rios (R) in the blanket primary. Cooley won by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 42: Karalee Hargrove (D), Gary Jeandron (R) and Chad Mayes (R) will face off in the blanket primary for the seat being vacated by incumbent Brian Nestande (R). Nestande won by a margin of victory of 9 percent in 2012.
• District 44: Jacqui Irwin (D), Mario De La Piedra (R) and Rob McCoy (R) will face off in the blanket primary for the seat being vacated by incumbent Jeff Gorell (R). Gorell won by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 66: Incumbent Al Muratsuchi (D) will face David Hadley (R) in the blanket primary. Muratsuchi won by a margin of victory of 10 percent in 2012.

Previously Competitive, Now Unopposed

• District 60: Incumbent Eric Linder (R) is unopposed in the blanket primary. Linder won by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

• Is the incumbent running for re-election?
• If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
• Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In California's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:

• There are 33 open seats (33.0%) in the two chambers.
• A total of 50 incumbents (50.0%) face a primary challenger.
• 73 districts (73.0%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.

Comparing California Competitiveness over the Years
Year	% Incs retiring	% incs rank	% Incs facing primary	% Incs primary rank	% seats with 2 MPC	% seats with 2 MPC rank	Overall Index	Overall Index Rank
2010	38.0%	7	9.6%	37	8.0%	6	18.5	11
2012	44.0%	1	35.7%	10	92.0%	4	57.2	1
2014	33.0%	Pending	50.0%	Pending	73.0%	Pending	49.9	Pending

Senate

The following table details competitiveness in the California State Senate.

California Senate Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
50.0%	40.0%	65.0%	51.7

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 7 of the 20 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of five Democrats and two Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the blanket primary in 13 of the 20 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

Eight incumbents will face primary competition on June 8. Ten incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another two incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state senators facing primary competition are:

• District 4: Incumbent Jim Nielsen (R) is challenged by CJ Jawahar (D) in the blanket primary.
• District 8: District 14 incumbent Tom Berryhill (R) is challenged by Paulina Miranda (D) in the blanket primary for the seat being vacated by Leland Yee (D).
• District 12: Incumbent Anthony Cannella (R) is challenged by Shawn K. Bagley (D) in the blanket primary.
• District 14: District 16 incumbent Andy Vidak (R) is challenged by Luis Chavez (D) in the blanket primary.
• District 24 District 22 incumbent Kevin De Leon (D) is challenged by Peter Choi (D) and William "Rodriguez" Morrison (D) in the blanket primary.
• District 30: District 26 incumbent Holly J. Mitchell (D) is challenged by Isidro Armenta (D) in the blanket primary.
• District 38: District 36 incumbent Joel Anderson (R) is challenged by Fotios "Frank" Tsimboukakis (D) in the blanket primary.
• District 40: Incumbent Ben Hueso (D) is challenged by Rafael Estrada (D) in the blanket primary.

Retiring incumbents

Ten incumbent senators, nine Democrats and one Republican, are not running for re-election, while 10 (50.0%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Noreen Evans	Democratic	Senate District 2
Darrell Steinberg	Democratic	Senate District 6
Leland Yee	Democratic	Senate District 8
Ellen M. Corbett	Democratic	Senate District 10
Alex Padilla	Democratic	Senate District 20
Ted Lieu	Democratic	Senate District 28
Ronald S. Calderon	Democratic	Senate District 30
Norma Torres	Democratic	Senate District 32
Lou Correa	Democratic	Senate District 34
Mark Wyland	Republican	Senate District 38

House

The following table details competitiveness in the California State Assembly.

California House Competitiveness
% Incs retiring	% Incs facing primary	% seats with 2 MPC	Overall Index
75.0%	52.5%	71.3%	66.3

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 20 of the 80 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 13 Democrats and 7 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 60 of the 80 districts up for election.

Primary challenges

A total of 42 incumbents will face primary competition on June 3. 23 incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 15 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The Assembly members facing primary competition include:

• District 10: Incumbent Marc Levine (D) is challenged by Erin Carlstrom (D), Diana M. Conti (D), Veronica "Roni" Jacobi (D) and Gregory Allen (R) in the blanket primary.
• District 36: Incumbent Steve Fox (D) is challenged by Kermit F. Franklin (D), JD Kennedy (R), Tom Lackey (R) and Suzette M. Martinez (R) in the blanket primary.
• District 39: Incumbent Raul Bocanegra (D) is challenged by Patty Lopez (D) and Kevin J. Suscavage (D) in the blanket primary.

Retiring incumbents

23 incumbent Assembly members, thirteen Democrats and ten Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 57 (71.3%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Wesley Chesbro	Democratic	Assembly District 2
Dan Logue	Republican	Assembly District 3
Mariko Yamada	Democratic	Assembly District 4
Roger Dickinson	Democratic	Assembly District 7
Richard Pan	Republican	Assembly District 9
Nancy Skinner	Democratic	Assembly District 15
Joan Buchanan	Democratic	Assembly District 16
Tom Ammiano	Democratic	Assembly District 17
Bob Wieckowski	Democratic	Assembly District 25
Connie Conway	Republican	Assembly District 26
Paul Fong	Democratic	Assembly District 28
Tim Donnelly	Republican	Assembly District 33
Mike Morrell	Republican	Assembly District 40
Brian Nestande	Republican	Assembly District 42
Jeff Gorell	Republican	Assembly District 44
John Perez	Democratic	Assembly District 53
Curt Hagman	Republican	Assembly District 55
Manuel Perez	Democratic	Assembly District 56
Steven Bradford	Democratic	Assembly District 62
Isadore Hall, III	Democratic	Assembly District 64
Bonnie Lowenthal	Democratic	Assembly District 70
Diane Harkey	Republican	Assembly District 73
Allan R. Mansoor	Republican	Assembly District 74

See also

• California elections, 2014
• State legislative elections, 2014
• California State Senate elections, 2014
• California State Assembly elections, 2014

External links

• California Secretary of State - Official Senate Primary candidate list
• California Secretary of State - Official Assembly Primary candidate list

Footnotes

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2026

State legislative elections (2026) • State legislative special elections (2026) • Primary dates and filing requirements • 2026 Session Dates

2025

State legislative elections (2025) • State legislative special elections (2025) • Primary dates and filing requirements • 2025 Session Dates

Historical elections

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Features of state legislatures

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State senates

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State houses

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Leadership positions

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