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Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive Montana elections in 2014
March 17, 2014
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Margin of victory Competitiveness |
| Other 2014 Election coverage |
State legislatures • U.S. House • U.S. Senate |
By Ballotpedia's State legislative team
March 10 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for Montana State Senate and Montana House of Representatives. Elections in 25 Senate districts and 100 House districts will consist of a primary election on June 3, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.
On February 12, 2013, the Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission finalized maps for the 100 House Districts and 50 Senate Districts.[1][2] Although the maps had yet to be finalized at the time, an analysis of the new districts by the IR State Bureau in December 2012 showed Republicans would most likely continue to control the Legislature through the next decade, but that Democrats would have a chance. According to the analysis, Republicans would have 42-47 relatively safe House seats and 21-24 safe Senate seats. Democrats, meanwhile, would have 32-39 relatively safe House seats and 19-20 safe Senate seats.[3]
- See also: State legislative elections, 2014, Montana State Senate elections, 2014 and Montana House of Representatives elections, 2014
Majority control
Heading into the November 4 election, the Republican Party holds the majority in both state legislative chambers. Montana's office of Governor is held by Steve Bullock (D), making the state one of 14 with a divided government.
The difference in partisan composition between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate is eight seats, or 32 percent of the seats up for election in 2014. There are 23 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot. In 2012, a total of three districts had a margin of victory in the general election of 5 percent or less. Another two districts had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.[4]
| Montana State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 21 | 21 | |
| Republican Party | 29 | 29 | |
| Total | 50 | 50 | |
With the vacant seat counting towards the party that previously held the seat, Republicans hold an advantage of 22 seats in the House, or 22 percent of the chamber. There are 88 districts where two major party candidates will appear on the general election ballot. In 2012, a total of seven districts had a margin of victory in the general election of 5 percent or less. Another 11 districts had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.[5]
| Montana House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 3, 2014 | After November 4, 2014 | |
| Democratic Party | 39 | 41 | |
| Republican Party | 61 | 59 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
2015 →
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| Other 2014 Election coverage |
Competitiveness
Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:
- Is the incumbent running for re-election?
- If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
- Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?
In Montana's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:[6]
- There are 46 open seats (36.8%) in the two chambers.
- A total of 19 incumbents (24.1%) face a primary challenger.
- 111 districts (88.8%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.
The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.
| Comparing Montana Competitiveness over the Years | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | % Incs retiring | % incs rank | % Incs facing primary | % Incs primary rank | % seats with 2 MPC | % seats with 2 MPC rank | Overall Index | Overall Index Rank |
| 2010 | 39.7% | 6 | 14.5% | 30 | 72.2% | 18 | 42.1 | 12 |
| 2012 | 34.9% | 4 | 20.7% | 26 | 81.0% | 11 | 45.5 | 10 |
| 2014 | 36.8% | Pending | 24.1% | Pending | 88.8% | Pending | 49.9 | Pending |
Senate
The following table details competitiveness in the Montana State Senate.
| Montana Senate Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 68.0% | 25.0% | 92.0% | 61.7 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In two (8.0%) of the 25 districts up for election, there is only one major party candidate running for election. Two Democrats are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 23 of the 25 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
A total of two incumbents will face primary competition on June 3. Eleven incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another seven incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition. The state representatives facing primary competition include:
- District 9: Incumbent Llew Jones (R), redistricted from the current District 14, is challenged by Joseph Large. David Brownell faces Joan Graham in the Democratic primary.
- District 43: Incumbent Scott Boulanger (R), redistricted from the current District 44, is challenged by House District 87 incumbent Pat Connell. Robert Schumacher is unopposed in the Democratic primary.
Retiring incumbents
Eleven incumbent representatives, two Democrats and five Republicans, are not running for re-election, while seven (28.0%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Sonju |  Republican |
Senate District 4 |
| Verdell Jackson | Republican |
Senate District 5 |
| Shannon Augare |  Democratic |
Senate District 8 |
| Anders Blewett | Democratic |
Senate District 11 |
| Mitch Tropila | Democratic |
Senate District 12 |
| Edward Walker | Republican |
Senate District 29 |
| Jason Priest | Republican |
Senate District 30 |
| Larry Jent | Democratic |
Senate District 32 |
| Art Wittich | Republican |
Senate District 34 |
| Dave Lewis | Republican |
Senate District 42 |
| David Wanzenried | Democratic |
Senate District 49 |
House
The following table details competitiveness in the Montana House of Representatives.
| Montana House Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| % Incs retiring | % Incs facing primary | % seats with 2 MPC | Overall Index |
| 29.0% | 23.9% | 88.0% | 47.0 |
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 13 of the 100 districts up for election in 2014, one major party candidate will run unopposed in the general election. A total of 12 Democrats and one Republican are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 88 of the 100 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
A total of 17 incumbents will face primary competition on June 3. Twenty-eight incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 54 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition.
Retiring incumbents
Twenty-eight incumbent representatives are not running for re-election, while 73 of the current 99 incumbents (73.73%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:
See also
- Montana elections, 2014
- State legislative elections, 2014
- Montana State Senate elections, 2014
- Montana House of Representatives elections, 2014
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ billingsgazette.com, "Montana redistricting panel adopts final plan," February 12, 2013
- ↑ Montana State Legislature, "Legislative Redistricting Plan (adopted 2/12/13)," accessed May 23, 2013
- ↑ Independent Record, "News analysis: Who benefits from new legislative districts?" December 9, 2012
- ↑ Ballotpedia.org, "Montana Senate Margin of Victory," accessed March 17, 2014
- ↑ Ballotpedia.org, "Montana House Margin of Victory," accessed March 17, 2014
- ↑ Ballotpedia.org, "Montana Competitiveness," accessed March 17, 2014
