Legislative Lowdown: Identifying competitive New Mexico elections in 2014

March 24, 2014

2014 New Mexico Legislative Lowdown
Table of Contents
Majority control Margin of victory Competitiveness
Other 2014 Election coverage
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By Ballotpedia's State legislative team

The New Mexico House of Representatives saw 15 districts with competitive or mildly competitive elections in 2012. The gap in partisan balance of just four seats sets the chamber up for hotly contested elections again in 2014. Republicans would need to pick up three seats to take the majority, something they haven't had since controlling the chamber after the 1952 elections. The nine districts with competitive elections in 2012 will be key in 2014. Additionally, Republicans have their eyes on the seat being vacated by Nathan Cote (D). Cote flipped the district in a mildly competitive 2012 election.

March 11 was the signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run for the New Mexico House of Representatives. Elections in all 70 House districts will consist of a primary election on June 3, 2014, and a general election on November 4, 2014.

See also: 2014's state legislative elelections and New Mexico House of Representatives elections

Majority control

Heading into the November 4 election, the Democratic Party holds the majority in both state legislative chambers. New Mexico's office of Governor is held by Susana Martinez (R), making New Mexico one of the 14 states that is under divided government and is therefore not one of the state government trifectas.

The New Mexico House of Representatives is one of 20 state legislative chambers noted by Ballotpedia staff as being a battleground chamber. The New Mexico House has a difference in partisan balance between Democrats and Republican of four seats, which amounts to 5.7 percent of the chamber. In 2012, a total of 15 districts were competitive or mildly competitive. There were nine districts where the margin of victory was 5 percent or less in the 2012 elections. Another six districts had a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent.

New Mexico House of Representatives
Party		As of November 3, 2014	After November 4, 2014
	Democratic Party	37	33
	Republican Party	33	37
Total		70	70

2015 → ← 2013
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Margin of victory

House

All 70 seats in the House were up for election in 2012. Nine of those districts held competitive elections with a margin of victory ranging from 0 to 5 percent. Another six districts held mildly competitive elections with a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. There were 34 districts where only one major party candidate appeared on the general election ballot.

The districts with elections in 2014 which held competitive or mildly competitive elections in 2012 are:

Competitive

• District 7: Incumbent Kelly K. Fajardo is unopposed in the Republican primary. Andrew Barreras will face Teresa K.E. Smith De Cherif in the Democratic primary. Fajardo won the general election by a margin of victory of 1 percent in 2012.
• District 15: Incumbent Emily A. Kane (D) will face off against Sarah Maestas Barnes (R) in the general election. Kane won the general election by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.
• District 23: Incumbent Paul Pacheco (R) will face off against Catherine Begaye (D) in the general election. Pacheco won the general election by a margin of victory of 0.57 percent in 2012.
• District 24: Incumbent Elizabeth L. Thomson (D) will face off against Conrad James (R) in the general election. Thomson won the general election by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.
• District 29: Incumbent Thomas Anderson will face David Edward Adkins in the Republican primary. The winner of that contest will face Ronnie Martinez (D) in the general election. Anderson won the general election by a margin of victory of 5 percent in 2012.
• District 36: Incumbent Phillip M. Archuleta (D) will face off against Andrew Nunez (R) in the general election. Archuleta won the general election by a margin of victory of 5 percent in 2012.
• District 37: Incumbent Terry McMillan (R) will face off against Joanne J. Ferrary (D) in the general election. McMillan won the general election by a margin of victory of 0.1 percent in 2012.
• District 39: Incumbent Rodolpho Martinez (D) will face off against John L. Zimmerman (R) in the general election. Martinez won the general election by a margin of victory of 4 percent in 2012.
• District 43: Incumbent Stephanie Richard is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Vincent Chiravalle will face Geoff Rodgers in the Republican primary. Richard won the general election by a margin of victory of 2 percent in 2012.

Mildly competitive

• District 8: Incumbent Alonzo Baldonado is unopposed in the Republican primary. Frank A. Otero will face Jim Danner in the Democratic primary. Baldonado won the general election by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 30: Incumbent Nathaniel Gentry (R) will face off against Robert M. Coffey (D) in the general election. Gentry won the general election by a margin of victory of 8 percent in 2012.
• District 38: Incumbent Dianne Hamilton (R) will face off against Terry Fortenberry (D) in the general election. Hamilton won the general election by a margin of victory of 10 percent in 2012.
• District 53: Ricky Little (R) will face off against Mariaelena Johnson (D) in the general election. Incumbent Nathan Cote (D) won the general election by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.
• District 57: Incumbent Jason C. Harper (R) will face off against Donna I. Tillman (D) in the general election. Harper won the general election by a margin of victory of 6 percent in 2012.

Previously mildly competitive, now unopposed

• District 68: Incumbent Monica Youngblood (R) is unchallenged in the primary and general elections. She won the seat after defeating Eloise Gift (D) by a margin of 10 percent in 2012.

Competitiveness

Using the official candidate lists from each state, Ballotpedia staff analyzes each district's election to look at the following circumstances:

• Is the incumbent running for re-election?
• If an incumbent is running, do they face a primary challenger?
• Are both major parties represented on the general election ballot?

In New Mexico's 2014 elections, those circumstances break down as follows:

• There are 9 open seats (12.9%) in the chamber.
• A total of 11 incumbents (18.0%) face a primary challenger.
• Just 33 districts (47.1%) will feature a Democratic and Republican candidate on the general election ballot.

The following table puts the 2014 data into historical context. Overall index is calculated as the average of the three circumstances.

Comparing New Mexico Competitiveness over the Years
Year	% Incs retiring	% incs rank	% Incs facing primary	% Incs primary rank	% seats with 2 MPC	% seats with 2 MPC rank	Overall Index	Overall Index Rank
2010	4.3%	46	20.9%	15	48.6%	38	24.6	42
2012	18.8%	24	31.9%	17	47.3%	32	32.7	27
2014	12.9%	Pending	18.0%	Pending	47.1%	Pending	26.0	Pending

Candidates unopposed by a major party

In 37 (53%) of the 70 districts up for election in 2014, there is only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 22 Democrats and 15 Republicans are guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates will face off in the general election in 33 (47.1%) of the 70 districts up for election. Nine of those seats held competitive elections in 2012 with a margin of victory ranging from zero to five percent. Six other elections were mildly competitive, with a margin of victory of five to ten percent.

Primary challenges

A total of 11 incumbents will face primary competition on June 3. Nine incumbents are not seeking re-election in 2014 and another 50 incumbents will advance past the primary without opposition.

Retiring incumbents

Nine incumbent representatives, four Democrats and five Republicans, are not running for re-election, while 61 (87.1%) are running for re-election. Those retiring incumbents are:

Name	Party	Current Office
Thomas Taylor	Republican	House District 01
Rick Miera	Democratic	House District 11
Ernest Chavez, Sr.	Democratic	House District 12
Edward Sandoval	Democratic	House District 17
James White	Republican	House District 20
Nathan Cote	Democratic	House District 53
William Gray	Republican	House District 54
Donald Bratton	Republican	House District 62
Anna Crook	Republican	House District 64

See also

• New Mexico elections, 2014
• State legislative elections, 2014
• New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2014

External links

• New Mexico Secretary of State, 2014 Primary Election Candidate List

Footnotes

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