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Louisiana's 5th Congressional District

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Louisiana's 5th Congressional District
Incumbent
Assumed office: April 14, 2021

Louisiana's 5th Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives is represented by Julia Letlow (R).

As of the 2020 Census, Louisiana representatives represented an average of 776,911 residents. After the 2010 Census, each member represented 758,994 residents.

Elections

2024

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District election, 2024


Louisiana elections use the majority-vote system. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5

Incumbent Julia Letlow won election outright against Michael Vallien Jr. and M.V. Mendoza in the primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5 on November 5, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Julia Letlow
Julia Letlow (R)
 
62.9
 
201,037
Image of Michael Vallien Jr.
Michael Vallien Jr. (D) Candidate Connection
 
25.9
 
82,981
Image of M.V. Mendoza
M.V. Mendoza (R) Candidate Connection
 
11.2
 
35,833

Total votes: 319,851
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2022

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District election, 2022


Louisiana elections use the majority-vote system. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5

Incumbent Julia Letlow won election outright against Oscar Dantzler, Walter Huff, Allen Guillory Sr., and Hunter Pullen in the primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5 on November 8, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Julia Letlow
Julia Letlow (R)
 
67.6
 
151,080
Image of Oscar Dantzler
Oscar Dantzler (D)
 
15.7
 
35,149
Walter Huff (D)
 
8.7
 
19,383
Image of Allen Guillory Sr.
Allen Guillory Sr. (R)
 
5.4
 
12,159
Image of Hunter Pullen
Hunter Pullen (R)
 
2.6
 
5,782

Total votes: 223,553
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2021

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District special election, 2021

A special election to fill the seat representing Louisiana's 5th Congressional District in the U.S. House was held on March 20, 2021. The filing deadline was January 22, 2021.[1] If necessary, a general election was held on April 24, 2021.[1]

The special election filled the vacancy left by Luke Letlow (R), who died on December 29, 2020, from complications related to COVID-19.[2]


Louisiana elections use the majority-vote system. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation.

Nonpartisan primary election

Special nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5

The following candidates ran in the special primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5 on March 20, 2021.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Julia Letlow
Julia Letlow (R)
 
64.9
 
67,203
Image of Candy Christophe
Candy Christophe (D)
 
27.3
 
28,255
Image of Chad Conerly
Chad Conerly (R) Candidate Connection
 
5.3
 
5,497
Image of Robert Lansden
Robert Lansden (R) Candidate Connection
 
0.9
 
929
Image of Allen Guillory Sr.
Allen Guillory Sr. (R)
 
0.4
 
464
Jim Davis (Independent)
 
0.4
 
402
Sancha Smith (R)
 
0.3
 
334
Image of M.V. Mendoza
M.V. Mendoza (Independent)
 
0.2
 
236
Image of Jaycee Magnuson
Jaycee Magnuson (R) Candidate Connection
 
0.1
 
131
Richard Pannell (R)
 
0.1
 
67
Image of Horace Melton
Horace Melton (R)
 
0.1
 
62
Errol Victor (R)
 
0.0
 
36

Total votes: 103,616
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2020

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District election, 2020


Louisiana elections use the majority-vote system. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation.

General election

General election for U.S. House Louisiana District 5

Luke Letlow defeated Lance Harris in the general election for U.S. House Louisiana District 5 on December 5, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Luke Letlow
Luke Letlow (R) Candidate Connection
 
62.0
 
49,183
Image of Lance Harris
Lance Harris (R)
 
38.0
 
30,124

Total votes: 79,307
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5

The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Luke Letlow
Luke Letlow (R) Candidate Connection
 
33.1
 
102,533
Image of Lance Harris
Lance Harris (R)
 
16.6
 
51,240
Image of Candy Christophe
Candy Christophe (D) Candidate Connection
 
16.4
 
50,812
Image of Martin Lemelle
Martin Lemelle (D) Candidate Connection
 
10.4
 
32,186
Randall Scott Robinson (R)
 
7.7
 
23,887
Image of Allen Guillory Sr.
Allen Guillory Sr. (R)
 
7.3
 
22,496
Image of Matt Hasty
Matt Hasty (R) Candidate Connection
 
3.2
 
9,834
Image of Phillip Snowden
Phillip Snowden (D)
 
3.0
 
9,432
Jesse Lagarde (D) Candidate Connection
 
2.3
 
7,136

Total votes: 309,556
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2018

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District election, 2018


Louisiana elections use the majority-vote system. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50 percent of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5

Incumbent Ralph Abraham won election outright against Jessee Carlton Fleenor, Billy Burkette, and Kyle Randol in the primary for U.S. House Louisiana District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Ralph Abraham
Ralph Abraham (R)
 
66.5
 
149,018
Image of Jessee Carlton Fleenor
Jessee Carlton Fleenor (D)
 
30.0
 
67,118
Image of Billy Burkette
Billy Burkette (Independent)
 
2.1
 
4,799
Image of Kyle Randol
Kyle Randol (L)
 
1.3
 
3,011

Total votes: 223,946
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Ralph Abraham (R) defeated Billy Burkette (R) in the primary election on November 8, 2016. [3]

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Abraham Incumbent 81.6% 208,545
     Republican Billy Burkette 18.4% 47,117
Total Votes 255,662
Source: Louisiana Secretary of State

2014

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 5th Congressional District of Louisiana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014.

Ralph Abraham (R) and Jamie Mayo (D) secured enough votes to participate in a runoff on December 6, 2014. Incumbent Vance McAllister (R) did not receive enough votes to participate in the runoff. Ralph Abraham (R) was ultimately successful.

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Abraham 64.2% 134,616
     Democratic Jamie Mayo 35.8% 75,004
Total Votes 209,620
Source: Louisiana Secretary of State
U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Vance McAllister Incumbent 11.11% 26,606
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRalph Abraham 23.16% 55,489
     Republican Harris Brown 4.13% 9,890
     Republican Zach Dasher 22.39% 53,628
     Republican Clyde Holloway 7.46% 17,877
     Republican Ed Tarpley Jr. 1.92% 4,594
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJamie Mayo 28.22% 67,611
     Libertarian Charles Saucier 0.92% 2,201
     Green Eliot Barron 0.69% 1,655
Total Votes 239,551
Source: Louisiana Secretary of State

Withdrew

Failed to file

Rumored candidates

Declined to run

2013

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District special election, 2013

The 5th Congressional District of Louisiana held a special election for the U.S. House in 2013. The election was held October 19, 2013, with a runoff general election held November 16, 2013.[23][24][25]

The special election was held to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Rep. Rodney Alexander (R).[24]

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Runoff General Special Election, 2013
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVance McAllister 59.6% 54,450
     Republican Neil Riser 40.4% 36,840
Total Votes 91,290
Source: Louisiana Secretary of State, "11/16/2013 Special Election Results,"

2012

See also: Louisiana's 5th Congressional District elections, 2012

The 5th Congressional District of Louisiana held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Rodney Alexander won re-election in the district.[26]

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRodney Alexander Incumbent 77.8% 202,536
     None Ron Ceasar 14.4% 37,486
     Libertarian Clay Steven Grant 7.8% 20,194
Total Votes 260,216
Source: Louisiana Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2010
On November 2, 2010, Rodney Alexander won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Tom Gibbs, Jr. (I) in the general election.[27]

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRodney Alexander incumbent 78.6% 122,033
     Independent Tom Gibbs, Jr. 21.4% 33,279
Total Votes 155,312


2008
Alexander ran unopposed to re-election in 2008.

2006
On November 7, 2006, Rodney Alexander won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Gloria Williams Hearn (D), Brent Sanders (L) and John Watts (I) in the primary election.

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRodney Alexander Incumbent 68.3% 78,211
     Democratic Gloria Williams Hearn 29% 33,233
     Libertarian Brent Sanders 1.6% 1,876
     Independent John Watts 1.1% 1,262
Total Votes 114,582


2004
On November 2, 2004, Rodney Alexander won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John W. "Jock" Scott (R) and Zelma "Tisa" Blakes (D) in the primary election.

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2004
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRodney Alexander Incumbent 59.4% 141,495
     Republican John W. "Jock" Scott 16% 37,971
     Democratic Zelma "Tisa" Blakes 24.6% 58,591
Total Votes 238,057


2002
On November 5, 2002, Rodney Alexander won election to the United States House. He defeated Robert J. Barham (R), Lee Fletcher (R), Clyde C. Holloway (R), Sam Houston Melton, Jr. (D) and Vinson Mouser (I) in the primary election.

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2002
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRodney Alexander 37.3% 52,952
     Republican Robert J. Barham 31.9% 45,278
     Republican Lee Fletcher 24.3% 34,533
     Republican Clyde C. Holloway 2.5% 3,581
     Democratic Sam Houston Melton Jr. 3.2% 4,595
     Independent Vinson Mouser 0.8% 1,145
Total Votes 142,084


2000
On November 7, 2000, John Cooksey won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Roger Beall (D), Sam Houston Melton, Jr. (D), Raymond A. "Dhuck" Dumas (Other) in the primary election.

U.S. House, Louisiana District 5 Primary Election, 2000
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Cooksey 69.1% 123,975
     Democratic Roger Beall 23.9% 42,977
     Democratic Sam Houston Melton, Jr. 4% 7,186
     Independent Raymond A. "Chuck" Dumas 3% 5,335
Total Votes 179,473


District map

Redistricting

2020-2024

See also: Redistricting in Louisiana after the 2020 census

On June 27, 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court scheduled Louisiana v. Callais for reargument in its next term.[28] In August 2025, the Court scheduled arguments for October 15, 2025.[29]

The Court first heard oral arguments in the case on March 24, 2025.[30] On November 4, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear Louisiana v. Callais (formerly Callais v. Landry) consolidated with Robinson v. Callais — two appeals from the U.S. District Court for Western Louisiana decision that struck down the state's new congressional map. The Court noted probable jurisdiction and allotted one hour for oral argument.[31][32]

On May 15, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked an April 30 ruling by the U.S. District Court for Western Louisiana striking down the state's congressional map. As a result, the map was used for Louisiana’s 2024 congressional elections.[33] According to ScotusBlog,

In a brief unsigned order the justices blocked a ruling by a federal court that had barred the state from using the new map on the ground that legislators had relied too heavily on race when they drew it earlier this year. The order cited an election doctrine known as the Purcell principle – the idea that courts should not change election rules during the period just before an election because of the confusion that it will cause for voters and the problems that doing so could cause for election officials. The lower court’s order will remain on hold, the court indicated, while an appeal to the Supreme Court moves forward.[33][34]


Gov. Jeff Landry signed the congressional map into law on January 22 after a special legislative session. The state House of Representatives voted 86-16 and the state Senate voted 27-11 to adopt this congressional map on January 19.[35][36]

According to NPR, "Under the new map, Louisiana's 2nd District, which encompasses much of New Orleans and surrounding areas, will have a Black population of about 53%. Democratic U.S. Rep. Troy Carter represents that district, which has been Louisiana's only majority-Black district for several years. Louisiana's 6th District now stretches from parts of Shreveport to Baton Rouge and will have a Black population of about 56%."[37]

On November 10, 2023, a three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated a 2022 injunction that blocked the implementation of Louisiana’s congressional district maps, for violating the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of African American voters. The court also issued a deadline for the state to enact new maps for the 2024 election cycle.[38] On November 30, 2023, the U.S. District Court for Middle Louisiana extended the deadline for the creation of new maps that comply with the Voting Rights Act to January 30, 2024.[39] Gov. Jeff Landry called a special session of the Louisiana state legislature on January 15, 2024 — days after he assumed office on January 8 — to draw new maps in compliance with the court's order.[40]

How does redistricting in Louisiana work? In Louisiana, both congressional and state legislative districts are drawn by the state legislature. These lines are subject to veto by the governor. In the event that the legislature is unable to approve state legislative district boundaries, the state supreme court must draw the lines. There is no such practice that applies to congressional districts.[41]

The state legislature has adopted guidelines for redistricting. These guidelines suggest that both congressional and state legislative districts be contiguous and "respect recognized political boundaries and the natural geography of the state to the extent practicable." These guidelines are non-binding; as such, the legislature may alter them at its discretion.[41]


Below are the congressional maps in effect before and after the 2020 redistricting cycle. The map on the right was in effect for Louisiana’s 2024 congressional elections.

Louisiana District 5
before 2020 redistricting cycle

Click a district to compare boundaries.

Louisiana District 5
after 2020 redistricting cycle

Click a district to compare boundaries.

2010-2011

This is the 5th Congressional District of Louisiana after the 2001 redistricting process.
See also: Redistricting in Louisiana after the 2010 census

In 2011, the Louisiana State Legislature re-drew the congressional districts based on updated population information from the 2010 census.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

2026

Heading into the 2026 elections, based on results from the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district is R+18. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 18 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Louisiana's 5th the 45th most Republican district nationally.[42]

2024

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Louisiana's 5th the 49th most Republican district nationally.[43]

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 66.0%-32.3%.[44]

2022

Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Louisiana's 5th the 65th most Republican district nationally.[45]

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 34.4% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 64.1%.[46]

2018

Heading into the 2018 elections, based on results from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Louisiana's 5th Congressional District the 82nd most Republican nationally.[47]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.91. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.91 points toward that party.[48]

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 Office of the Governor, "Gov. Edwards Sets Special Elections for March, April in Congressional Districts 2 and 5," January 7, 2021
  2. The Hill, "Louisiana Rep.-elect hospitalized as a precaution for COVID-19 infection," December 19, 2020
  3. Louisiana Secretary of State, "Candidate Inquiry," accessed July 25, 2016
  4. NOLA.com, "Vance McAllister won't seek reelection, The News-Star reports," accessed April 28, 2014
  5. The News Star, "UPDATE: McAllister won't seek re-election, will finish term," accessed April 28, 2014
  6. KALB, "Ed Tarpley, Former DA for Grant Parish, announce Congress bid," accessed April 12, 2014
  7. The New Orleans Advocate, "Both sides gear up to unseat McAllister," accessed April 12, 2014
  8. KNOE, "Tarpley announces intention to run for 5th District seat," accessed April 12, 2014
  9. NOLA.com, "Ed Tarpley to run for Vance McAllister's US House seat," accessed April 16, 2014
  10. Shreveport Times, "Monroe businessman Harris Brown to run for 5th District," accessed May 21, 2014
  11. Ralph Abraham for Congress, "Ralph Abraham For Congress," accessed June 3, 2014
  12. Daily Journla, "'Duck Dynasty' relative running for Louisiana's 5th District congressional seat in November," accessed June 16, 2014
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 Louisiana Elections and Voting, "Candidate list," accessed August 27, 2014
  14. The Town Talk, "Monroe Mayor Mayo to make second run at Congress," accessed July 7, 2014
  15. My ARKLAMISS, "UPDATE: Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo Enters 5th Congressional District Race," accessed July 7, 2014
  16. Herford for Congress, "Home," accessed January 6, 2014
  17. The Town Talk, "Boyce businessman Grant announces run for Congress; Hazel won't run for seat," accessed April 30, 2014
  18. The Town Talk, "Marksville's Rep. Johnson won't rule out 2014 run for Congress," accessed October 24, 2013
  19. The Hill, "GOP senator moves toward run for McAllister's House seat," accessed July 9, 2014
  20. NOLA.com, "Vance McAllister's runoff opponent Louisiana state Senator Neil Riser won't rule out run for spot," accessed April 30, 2014
  21. LA Politics, "Riser Will Not Run in 5th District," accessed June 23, 2014
  22. The Town Talk, "Boyce businessman Grant announces run for Congress; Hazel won't run for seat," accessed April 30, 2014
  23. Louisiana Secretary of State, "Upcoming elections," accessed August 8, 2013
  24. 24.0 24.1 The News Star, "Special election set Oct. 19; qualifying this month," accessed August 8, 2013
  25. Louisiana Secretary of State, "November 16, 2013, Election Results," accessed November 16, 2013
  26. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Louisiana"
  27. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  28. Louisiana Illuminator, "U.S. Supreme Court punts Louisiana redistricting case to next term," June 27, 2025
  29. Louisiana Illuminator, "U.S. Supreme Court sets date for Louisiana redistricting case rehearing," August 13, 2025
  30. NBC News, "Supreme Court wrestles with Louisiana racial gerrymandering claim," March 24, 2025
  31. SCOTUSblog, "Supreme Court will hear case on second majority-Black district in Louisiana redistricting," November 4, 2024
  32. The American Redistricting Project, "Louisiana v. Callais," November 4, 2024
  33. 33.0 33.1 SCOTUSblog, "Court allows Louisiana to move forward with two majority-Black districts," May 15, 2024
  34. Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  35. Roll Call, "Louisiana Legislature passes new congressional map," January 19, 2024
  36. Ballotpedia's Legislation Tracker, "Louisiana SB8," accessed January 25, 2024
  37. NPR, "After a court fight, Louisiana's new congressional map boosts Black political power," January 23, 2024
  38. The New York Times, "Louisiana Must Finalize New Voting Map by January, Federal Appeals Court Says," November 10, 2023
  39. AP News, "Louisiana granted extra time to draw new congressional map that complies with Voting Rights Act," December 12, 2023
  40. Roll Call, "Louisiana Legislature passes new congressional map," January 19, 2024
  41. 41.0 41.1 All About Redistricting, "Louisiana," accessed April 30, 2015
  42. Cook Political Report, "2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)," accessed July 1, 2025
  43. Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
  44. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
  45. Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023
  46. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
  47. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  48. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018


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