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Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 (July 14 Democratic primary)
- Primary date: July 14
- Primary type: Closed
- Registration deadline(s): July 7 (pre-registration)
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Early voting starts: Pending
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): July 14 (received)
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| Maine's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 16, 2020 |
| Primary: July 14, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Jared Golden (Democratic) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Maine |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd Maine elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
A Democratic Party primary took place on July 14, 2020, in Maine's 2nd Congressional District to determine which Democratic candidate would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.
Incumbent Jared Golden advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Maine District 2.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election, the incumbent was Jared Golden (Democrat), who was first elected in 2018.
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Maine utilizes a semi-closed primary process, in which both registered party members and unaffiliated voters may participate. Unaffiliated voters may vote in one partisan primary of their choosing in each election.[1][2]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on Maine's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:
- Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 (July 14 Republican primary)
- Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Maine modified its primary election process as follows:
- Election postponements: The primary election was postponed from June 9, 2020, to July 14.
- Voting procedures: The voter pre-registration deadline was extended to July 7.
- Political party events: The Democratic Party of Maine canceled its state convention, originally scheduled for May 29-30.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
Democratic primary election
Democratic Primary for U.S. House Maine District 2
The following candidates advanced in the ranked-choice voting election: Jared Golden in round 1 .
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Total votes: 57,718 |
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 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Maine's 2nd Congressional District the 219th most Republican nationally.[3]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[4]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[5] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[6] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Golden | Democratic Party | $5,382,793 | $5,344,641 | $130,861 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Ranked-choice voting
Ranked-choice voting in Maine
Maine uses ranked-choice voting for all federal and state-level (e.g., governor, state senator, and state representative) primary elections. Ranked-choice voting is used in general elections for federal offices only (i.e., U.S. Congress and the presidency).[7]
Click here for information on the history of ranked-choice voting in Maine.
How ranked-choice voting works
Broadly speaking, the ranked-choice voting process unfolds as follows for single-winner elections:
- Voters rank the candidates for a given office by preference on their ballots.
- If a candidate wins an outright majority of first-preference votes (i.e., 50 percent plus one), he or she will be declared the winner.
- If, on the other hand, no candidates win an outright majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated.
- All first-preference votes for the failed candidate are eliminated, lifting the second-preference choices indicated on those ballots.
- A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate has won an outright majority of the adjusted voters.
- The process is repeated until a candidate wins a majority of votes cast.
Example
Assume that there are four candidates for mayor in a hypothetical city. The table below presents the raw first-preference vote totals for each candidate.
| Raw first-preference vote tallies in a hypothetical mayoral race | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | First-preference votes | Percentage |
| Candidate A | 475 | 46.34% |
| Candidate B | 300 | 29.27% |
| Candidate C | 175 | 17.07% |
| Candidate D | 75 | 7.32% |
In the above scenario, no candidate won an outright majority of first-preference votes. As a result, the candidate (Candidate D) with the smallest number of first-preference votes is eliminated. The ballots that listed candidate D as the first preference are adjusted, raising their second-preference candidates. Assume that, of the 75 first-preference votes for Candidate D, 50 listed Candidate A as their second preference and 25 listed Candidate B. The adjusted vote totals would be as follows:
| Adjusted vote tallies in a hypothetical mayoral race | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Adjusted first-preference votes | Percentage |
| Candidate A | 525 | 51.22% |
| Candidate B | 325 | 31.71% |
| Candidate C | 175 | 17.07% |
On the second tally, Candidate A secured 51.22 percent of the vote, thereby winning the election.
Note: The above is a simplified example used for illustrative purposes. Specific procedures vary by jurisdiction and according to the nature of the election (i.e., whether it is a single-winner or multi-winner contest).
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump in 2016
This district was one of 30 Democratic-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.
| 2020 Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Ran in 2020? | 2018 congressional margin | 2016 presidential margin | 2012 presidential margin | ||||||||
| Arizona's 1st |  Tom O'Halleran |
Yes | Democrats+7.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+2.5 | ||||||||
| Georgia's 6th | Lucy McBath |
Yes | Democrats+1.0 | Trump+1.5 | Romney+23.3 | ||||||||
| Illinois' 14th | Lauren Underwood |
Yes | Democrats+5.0 | Trump+3.9 | Romney+10 | ||||||||
| Illinois' 17th | Cheri Bustos |
Yes | Democrats+24.2 | Trump+0.7 | Obama+17 | ||||||||
| Iowa's 1st | Abby Finkenauer |
Yes | Democrats+5.1 | Trump+3.5 | Obama+13.7 | ||||||||
| Iowa's 2nd | Dave Loebsack |
Retired | Democrats+5.2 | Trump+4.1 | Obama+13.1 | ||||||||
| Iowa's 3rd | Cindy Axne |
Yes | Democrats+2.2 | Trump+3.5 | Obama+4.2 | ||||||||
| Maine's 2nd | Jared Golden |
Yes | Democrats+1.3 | Trump+10.3 | Obama+8.6 | ||||||||
| Michigan's 8th | Elissa Slotkin |
Yes | Democrats+3.8 | Trump+6.7 | Romney+3.1 | ||||||||
| Michigan's 11th | Haley Stevens |
Yes | Democrats+6.7 | Trump+4.4 | Romney+5.4 | ||||||||
| Minnesota's 2nd | Angie Craig |
Yes | Democrats+5.5 | Trump+1.2 | Obama+0.1 | ||||||||
| Minnesota's 7th | Collin Peterson |
Yes | Democrats+4.3 | Trump+30.8 | Romney+9.8 | ||||||||
| Nevada's 3rd | Susie Lee |
Yes | Democrats+9.1 | Trump+1.0 | Obama+0.8 | ||||||||
| New Hampshire's 1st | Chris Pappas |
Yes | Democrats+8.6 | Trump+1.6 | Obama+1.6 | ||||||||
| New Jersey's 3rd | Andrew Kim |
Yes | Democrats+1.3 | Trump+6.2 | Obama+4.6 | ||||||||
| New Jersey's 5th | Josh Gottheimer |
Yes | Democrats+13.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+3.0 | ||||||||
| New Jersey's 11th | Mikie Sherrill |
Yes | Democrats+14.6 | Trump+0.9 | Romney+5.8 | ||||||||
| New Mexico's 2nd | Xochitl Torres Small |
Yes | Democrats+1.9 | Trump+10.2 | Romney+6.8 | ||||||||
| New York's 11th | Max Rose |
Yes | Democrats+6.5 | Trump+9.8 | Obama+4.3 | ||||||||
| New York's 18th | Sean Maloney |
Yes | Democrats+10.9 | Trump+1.9 | Obama+4.3 | ||||||||
| New York's 19th | Antonio Delgado |
Yes | Democrats+5.2 | Trump+6.8 | Obama+6.2 | ||||||||
| New York's 22nd | Anthony Brindisi |
Yes | Democrats+1.8 | Trump+15.5 | Romney+0.4 | ||||||||
| Oklahoma's 5th | Kendra Horn |
Yes | Democrats+1.4 | Trump+13.4 | Romney+18.4 | ||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 8th | Matt Cartwright |
Yes | Democrats+9.3 | Trump+9.6 | Obama+11.9 | ||||||||
| Pennsylvania's 17th | Conor Lamb |
Yes | Democrats+12.5 | Trump+2.6 | Romney+4.5 | ||||||||
| South Carolina's 1st | Joe Cunningham |
Yes | Democrats+1.4 | Trump+13.1 | Romney+18.1 | ||||||||
| Utah's 4th | Ben McAdams |
Yes | Democrats+0.3 | Trump+6.7 | Romney+37.0 | ||||||||
| Virginia's 2nd | Elaine Luria |
Yes | Democrats+2.2 | Trump+3.4 | Romney+2.3 | ||||||||
| Virginia's 7th | Abigail Spanberger |
Yes | Democrats+1.9 | Trump+6.5 | Romney+10.5 | ||||||||
| Wisconsin's 3rd | Ron Kind |
Yes | Democrats+19.3 | Trump+4.5 | Obama+11 | ||||||||
| Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos | |||||||||||||
Click here to see the five U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
See also
- Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 (July 14 Republican primary)
- Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
- United States House elections in Maine, 2020 (July 14 Democratic primaries)
- United States House elections in Maine, 2020 (July 14 Republican primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ NCSL, "State Primary Election Types," accessed June 12, 2024
- ↑ Main Legislature Revised Statutes, "§341. Unenrolled voter participation in primary elections allowed," accessed June 12, 2024
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Maine.gov, "Ranked-choice Voting (RCV)," accessed February 24, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
