Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015

Last updated on November 18, 2024

2015 State Legislative Competitiveness
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There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2015 in four states. Of that total, 332 (62%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 206 (38%) were contested by both major parties. This was the largest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

A seat has major party competition when candidates from both major parties are on the general election ballot. When only one major party is running for a seat, it has no major party competition and is effectively guaranteed to the major party candidate on the ballot. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

In 2015:

Democrats were guaranteed to win 140 seats (26%) that lacked Republican competition, a 11% increase from 2011.

Republicans were guaranteed to win 190 seats (35%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 3% increase from 2011.

Overall, Democrats ran for 346 seats (64%) and Republicans ran for 396 (74%).

There were two seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.

The total number of seats without major party competition—332—was more than in 2011 (312), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 6% increase.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	407	106	26.0%	138	33.9%	246	60.4%	161	39.6%
Senate	131	34	26.0%	52	39.7%	86	65.6%	45	34.4%
Total	538	140	26.0%	190	35.3%	332	61.7%	206	38.3%

The chart below compares states by the percentage of seats contested by each of the major parties. In states located in the upper-right corner, almost all seats were contested by both major parties.

Click [show] on the table below to view incumbents in contested primaries statistics by state in 2015. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015
State	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Nationwide	538	140	26.0%	190	35.3%	332	61.7%	206	38.3%
Louisiana	144	49	34.0%	70	48.6%	121	84.0%	23	16.0%
Mississippi	174	53	30.5%	64	36.8%	117	67.2%	57	32.8%
New Jersey	80	1	1.3%	2	2.5%	3	3.8%	77	96.3%
Virginia	140	37	26.4%	54	38.6%	91	65.0%	49	35.0%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2015.

Click [show] on the table below to view overall major party competition statistics by state from 2011 to 2015. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2011-2015
State
	2011			2013			2015
	D	R	C	D	R	C	D	R	C
Nationwide	22%	32%	46%	11%	16%	72%	26%	35%	38%
Louisiana	28%	49%	22%	-	-	-	34%	49%	16%
Mississippi	31%	32%	37%	-	-	-	30%	37%	33%
New Jersey	2%	1%	98%	1%	3%	97%	1%	3%	96%
Virginia	21%	41%	37%	24%	33%	43%	26%	39%	35%

Louisiana

There were 144 seats up for election in Louisiana, 23 (16%) of which were contested by both major parties. The remaining 121 seats (84%) had no major party competition.

• Democrats ran for 72 seats (50%), 49 of which had no Republican competition, representing 34% of all seats up for election.
• Republicans ran for 93 seats (65%), 70 of which had no Democratic competition, representing 49% of all seats up for election.
• There were two seats uncontested by both major parties, guaranteeing those seats to minor party or independent candidates.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in Louisiana, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	105	38	36.2%	48	45.7%	88	83.8%	17	16.2%
Senate	39	11	28.2%	22	56.4%	33	84.6%	6	15.4%
Total	144	49	34.0%	70	48.6%	121	84.0%	23	16.0%

2011-2015

Historical major party competition statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in Louisiana, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
2011	144	40	27.8%	71	49.3%	112	77.8%	32	22.2%
2013	Did not hold elections.
2015	144	49	34.0%	70	48.6%	121	84.0%	23	16.0%

See also:

• Louisiana House of Representatives elections, 2015
• Louisiana State Senate elections, 2015

Mississippi

There were 174 seats up for election in Mississippi, 57 (33%) of which were contested by both major parties. The remaining 117 seats (67%) had no major party competition.

• Democrats ran for 110 seats (63%), 53 of which had no Republican competition, representing 30% of all seats up for election.
• Republicans ran for 121 seats (70%), 64 of which had no Democratic competition, representing 37% of all seats up for election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in Mississippi, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	122	40	32.8%	44	36.1%	84	68.9%	38	31.1%
Senate	52	13	25.0%	20	38.5%	33	63.5%	19	36.5%
Total	174	53	30.5%	64	36.8%	117	67.2%	57	32.8%

2011-2015

Historical major party competition statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in Mississippi, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
2011	174	54	31.0%	55	31.6%	109	62.6%	65	37.4%
2013	Did not hold elections.
2015	174	53	30.5%	64	36.8%	117	67.2%	57	32.8%

See also:

• Mississippi House of Representatives elections, 2015
• Mississippi State Senate elections, 2015

New Jersey

There were 80 seats up for election in New Jersey, 77 (96%) of which were contested by both major parties. The remaining three seats (4%) had no major party competition.

• Democrats ran for 78 seats (98%), one of which had no Republican competition, representing 1% of all seats up for election.
• Republicans ran for 79 seats (99%), two of which had no Democratic competition, representing 3% of all seats up for election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in New Jersey, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	80	1	1.3%	2	2.5%	3	3.8%	77	96.3%
Senate	Did not hold elections
Total	80	1	1.3%	2	2.5%	3	3.8%	77	96.3%

2011-2015

Historical major party competition statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in New Jersey, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
2011	120	2	1.7%	1	0.8%	3	2.5%	117	97.5%
2013	120	1	0.8%	3	2.5%	4	3.3%	116	96.7%
2015	80	1	1.3%	2	2.5%	3	3.8%	77	96.3%

See also:

• New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2015
• New Jersey State Senate elections, 2015

Virginia

There were 140 seats up for election in Virginia, 49 (35%) of which were contested by both major parties. The remaining 91 seats (65%) had no major party competition.

• Democrats ran for 86 seats (61%), 37 of which had no Republican competition, representing 26% of all seats up for election.
• Republicans ran for 103 seats (74%), 54 of which had no Democratic competition, representing 39% of all seats up for election.

In 2015

Statistics from 2015 are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in Virginia, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	100	27	27.0%	44	44.0%	71	71.0%	29	29.0%
Senate	40	10	25.0%	10	25.0%	20	50.0%	20	50.0%
Total	140	37	26.4%	54	38.6%	91	65.0%	49	35.0%

2011-2015

Historical major party competition statistics are shown below. Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.

Major party competition in state legislative elections in Virginia, 2011-2015
Year	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
2011	140	30	21.4%	58	41.4%	88	62.9%	52	37.1%
2013	100	24	24.0%	33	33.0%	57	57.0%	43	43.0%
2015	140	37	26.4%	54	38.6%	91	65.0%	49	35.0%

See also:

• Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2015
• Virginia State Senate elections, 2015

Terms and definitions

Major party competition

Major party competition exists when candidates from both major parties—Democratic and Republican—appear on the general election ballot for a given seat.

A seat lacks major party competition when at least one major party does not have a candidate on the ballot, effectively guaranteeing the seat to the other major party. This includes cases where no candidates from either major party appear on the ballot, guaranteeing that seat to a minor party or independent candidate.

Seat

State legislative seats represent the total number of candidates who can be elected. These totals may differ from state legislative districts.

In most states, every state legislative district includes a single seat. These are referred to as single-member state legislative districts.

Certain states have multi-member state legislative districts, where a single district contains multiple seats.

Methodology

Counting major party competition

Major party competition is counted by seat.

In a single-member district, major party competition exists when one Democrat and one Republican appear on the general election ballot.

In multi-member districts, major party competition might exist for some seats while not existing for others.

For example, in a district with three seats, if three Democrats and two Republicans appear on the general election ballot, two seats have major party competition, while one does not. This is because the number of Republicans on the ballot is less than the number of seats up for election, meaning, at most, Republicans could win two of the three seats with the remaining seat effectively guaranteed to be won by a Democrat.

Major party competition is counted at the time of the general election. In states with top-two/four primaries, where every candidate appears on the same primary ballot regardless of political affiliation, this means only those candidates who advanced to the general election are counted. For example, if two Republicans and one Democrat ran in a top-two primary, and the two Republicans advanced to the general election, that seat is considered to have no major party competition since only one major party appears on the general election ballot.

Candidacy withdrawals

See also: Signature requirements and deadlines for 2015 state government elections

Candidates may choose to withdraw before the general election takes place. Withdrawals include decisions to leave the race, disqualifications, and deaths. These withdrawals are either official or unofficial.

An official withdrawal means the candidate withdrew before a specific date set in state law and their name was removed from the general election ballot. If a major party candidate officially withdraws before the general election, the number of seats without major party competition increases unless another candidate replaces them.

An unofficial withdrawal means the candidate withdrew after a specific date set in state law, typically after ballots have been printed, meaning their name remains on the ballot even though they are not actively campaigning. If a major party candidate unofficially withdraws before the general election, major party competition figures are unchanged.

Minor party and independent candidates

This analysis does not account for the presence of minor party and independent candidates on the general election ballot when determining major party competition.

For example, if a Republican candidate is on the general election ballot running against an independent candidate, that seat is not considered to have major party competition, since no Democratic candidates are present.

This is why seats contested by only one major party are referred to as guaranteed to the major party with a candidate on the ballot. While minor party and independent candidates can win state legislative elections, it is rare. Heading into the 2015 elections, minor party or independent legislators held 1% of the nation's 7,383 state legislative seats.

Major party write-in candidates

Most states allow voters to write in the name of some other candidate when casting a ballot. Write-in candidates affiliated with a major party are not accounted for when determining major party competition unless that write-in candidate wins the general election. In these instances, major party competition figures are updated retroactively.

Calculating the total number of seats contested by a party

While this analysis does not focus on the total number of seats each major party contested, those totals can be calculated using the information above.

• The total number of seats contested by Democrats is equal to the total number of seats with only Democrats on the ballot plus the number of seats contested by both major parties.
• The total number of seats contested by Republicans is equal to the total number of seats with only Republicans on the ballot plus the number of seats contested by both major parties.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2015
  • Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2015
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2015
  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2015
  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2015
• Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2015

Footnotes

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