Help us improve in just 2 minutes—share your thoughts in our reader survey.

Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District election (September 4, 2018 Democratic primary)

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search


2020 →
← 2016
Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: September 4, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Michael Capuano (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Massachusetts
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+34
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Massachusetts elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley (D) defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano (D) in his first contested primary in two decades.[1][2]

Pressley ran as a change candidate. While her victory was compared to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s win in New York's 14th Congressional District, Pressley was neither a political newcomer nor an opponent of a moderate incumbent. She had worked in Massachusetts politics for more than two decades and acknowledged Capuano's progressive voting record.[3][4][5]

Pressley did accuse Capuano of compromising too much on key issues, including immigration and abortion. She also attacked Capuano's vote to support an amendment to the Affordable Care Act banning federal funding of abortion. Capuano defended his vote, saying it was necessary to get the larger health insurance bill passed.[6] He was the most liberal Democrat in the Massachusetts delegation, according to his DW-Nominate score.[4]

The Congressional Black Caucus endorsed Capuano, with caucus chairman and U.S. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) saying in a statement, "Capuano has built his career on standing up for those who have been left behind, from health care, to transportation, to housing. We ... have a strong, committed partner in Mike and unanimously support his campaign for Congress.”[7]

Capuano had also consolidated support from other party leaders in the state, including former Gov. Deval Patrick (D).

At the time of the election, Massachusetts' 7th was the state's only majority-minority district.[8] Pressley, who is black, highlighted the importance of representation in the race. She said, "This district and these times demand more than an ally, they demand an advocate and a champion."[2][8] She was endorsed by Justice Democrats, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey (D), and Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu.


Candidates and election results

Ayanna Pressley defeated incumbent Michael Capuano in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 7 on September 4, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 7

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ayanna Pressley
Ayanna Pressley
 
58.6
 
60,046
Image of Michael Capuano
Michael Capuano
 
41.4
 
42,430

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 102,476
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Debates and forums

August 15, 2018, debate

Capuano and Pressley participated in the final televised debate of the primary on August 15, 2018, moderated by Jim Braude of "Greater Boston." The candidates discussed the DREAM Act, criminal justice, abortion, and NFL player protests against police brutality, among other issues.

  • Find the Boston Globe round-up of the debatehere.
  • Find the WGBH round-up of the debate here.
Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District Democratic Debate, August 15, 2018

August 7, 2018, debate

Capuano and Pressley participated in a primary debate co-sponsored by The Boston Globe and WBUR-FM at the University of Massachusetts–Boston on August 7, 2018, where they discussed race, public transportation, and House leadership, among other issues.

  • Find the Associated Press round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Boston Patch round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the WBUR round-up of the debate here.
Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District Democratic Debate, August 7, 2018

Endorsements

The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for Democratic candidates in the primary for Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District.

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Democratic candidate endorsements
Endorsement Capuano Pressley
Elected officials
Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey (D)[9] ✔
Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu[10] ✔
Former Mass. Gov. Deval Patrick (D)[11] ✔
Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.)[12] ✔
Boston Mayor Martin Walsh (D)[13] ✔
Chelsea City Council President Damali Vidot[14] ✔
Organizations
Justice Democrats[15] ✔
American Federation of Teachers Massachusetts[16] ✔
Congressional Black Caucus[7] ✔
Massachusetts AFL-CIO[17] ✔

Campaign themes and policy stances

NFL player protests against police brutality

During the final televised debate of the primary on August 15, 2018, Capuano was asked to discuss comments he made in late 2017 criticizing NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick for kneeling during the National Anthem to protest police brutality.[18]

“I personally think if you’re going to raise an issue like that, you should do it in a way that brings people in,” Capuano said during the debate. “I thought that particular action divided America, because he chose to do it on the national anthem. I understand what he’s doing, I actually agree with the concept of what he’s doing, I just thought it could have been done in a way that brings more people into the discussion, rather than actually anger an awful lot of America.”[19]

Pressley responded, “It’s necessary that we are disruptive right now and making people uncomfortable. … The issue of police brutality and disproportionate brutality and murder of black men strikes at the soul and consciousness of this country.”[19]

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District election, Democratic primary, 2018
Poll Capuano (D) Pressley (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
WBUR
July 27-29, 2018		 48%35%15%+/-4.9403
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Michael Capuano Democratic Party $2,004,324 $2,761,746 $6,541 As of December 31, 2018
Ayanna Pressley Democratic Party $1,491,070 $1,404,970 $86,100 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+34, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 34 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District the 15th most Democratic nationally.[20]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[21]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Massachusetts. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Massachusetts with 60 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 32.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Republican 36.2 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Democratic all five times.[22]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Massachusetts. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[23][24]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 135 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 141 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. Clinton won 21 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 4.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 5.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Massachusetts heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Massachusetts General Court. They had a 117-34 majority in the state House and a 31-7 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Massachusetts was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Charlie Baker (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Massachusetts elections, 2018

Massachusetts held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Massachusetts
 MassachusettsU.S.
Total population:6,784,240316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):7,8003,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:79.6%73.6%
Black/African American:7.1%12.6%
Asian:6%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:10.6%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:40.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$68,563$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.1%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Massachusetts.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Massachusetts' three largest cities were Boston (pop. est. 685,000), Worcester (pop. est. 186,000), and Springfield (pop. est. 155,000).[25]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Massachusetts Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Massachusetts every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 60.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 32.8% 27.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.5% 23.2%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.8% Republican Party John McCain 36.0% 25.8%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 61.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 36.8% 25.1%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 59.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 32.5% 27.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Ed Markey 61.9% Republican Party Brian Herr 38.0% 23.9%
2013[26] Democratic Party Ed Markey 57.3% Republican Party Gabriel Gomez 44.6% 12.7%
2012 Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren 53.7% Republican Party Scott Brown 46.2% 7.5%
2010[26] Republican Party Scott Brown 51.9% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 47.1% 4.8%
2008 Democratic Party John Kerry 65.9% Republican Party Jeffrey Beatty 30.9% 35.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 69.3% Republican Party Kenneth Chase 30.5% 38.8%
2002 Democratic Party John Kerry Unopposed -- -- Unopposed
2000 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 72.7% Republican Party Jack E. Robinson III 12.9% 59.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Massachusetts.

Election results (Governor), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Charlie Baker 48.4% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 46.5% 1.9%
2010 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 48.4% Republican Party Charlie Baker 42.0% 6.4%
2006 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 55.6% Republican Party Kerry Healey 35.3% 20.3%
2002 Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.8% Democratic Party Shannon P. O'Brien 44.9% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2014 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2012 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2010 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2008 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2006 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2004 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2002 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2000 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Massachusetts Party Control: 1992-2024
Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, "U.S. House Democratic primaries," accessed July 13, 2018
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 The Washington Post, "Massachusetts Primary Election Results," September 4, 2018
  3. ↑ The Washington Post, "‘Change can’t wait’: Massachusetts Democrat Michael E. Capuano ousted in primary," September 3, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 FiveThirtyEight, "Why Ayanna Pressley’s Upset Win In Massachusetts Isn’t Really Like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s," September 5, 2018
  5. ↑ NPR, "The Next Big Democratic Primary Showdown," July 15, 2018
  6. ↑ Boston Globe, "In a heated debate, Pressley launches an offensive against Capuano," August 16, 2018
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Boston Globe, "Congressional Black Caucus PAC backs Michael Capuano," May 18, 2018
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 WBUR, "Boston Councilor Pressley Will Challenge Capuano For Congressional Seat," January 30, 2018
  9. ↑ WBUR, "Maura Healey Endorses Ayanna Pressley For Congress," July 30, 2018
  10. ↑ Ayanna Pressley for Congress, "Boston City Councilor Michelle Wu Endorses Ayanna Pressley for Congress," July 10, 2018
  11. ↑ The Boston Globe, "Deval Patrick endorses Michael Capuano over Ayanna Pressley in primary," May 3, 2018
  12. ↑ The Boston Globe, "Civil rights hero John Lewis endorses Mike Capuano," March 7, 2018
  13. ↑ Boston Herald, "Mayor Walsh to back incumbent Mike Capuano over Ayanna Pressley," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Chelsea Record, "Council President Endorses Pressley, Capuano Touts Fundraising," April 6, 2018
  15. ↑ Ayanna Pressley for Congress, "Justice Democrats Endorse Ayanna Pressley for Congress," June 25, 2018
  16. ↑ Politico, "Good news for INCUMBENTS — ‘RED FLAG’ gun bill heads to BAKER’s desk — WARREN, KENNEDY to rally against family separations," June 29, 2018
  17. ↑ Boston Globe, "Massachusetts AFL-CIO endorses Michael Capuano in House race," June 13, 2018
  18. ↑ Politico, "MA-07's August twist – Our Revolution Mass. backs MASSIE – ZAKIM raises stakes on campaign accord," August 16, 2018
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 The Boston Globe, "In a heated debate, Pressley launches an offensive against Capuano," August 16, 2018
  20. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  21. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  22. ↑ 270towin.com, "Massachusetts," accessed June 29, 2017
  23. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  24. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  25. ↑ Massachusetts Demographics, "Massachusetts Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Special election


Massachusetts' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Edward Markey (D)
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Democratic Party (11)


v • e
2017-2018 Elections to the United States Congress
Senate by StateCongressLogo.png
House by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming
Election information
Super PACs/Organizations
Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Massachusetts%27_7th_Congressional_District_election_(September_4,_2018_Democratic_primary)&oldid=10438931"