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Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District election (September 4, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: September 4, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Stephen Lynch (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Massachusetts
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+10
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th
Massachusetts elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Incumbent Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) won his first contested primary since 2010, defeating video game developer Brianna Wu (D) and Air Force veteran Christopher Voehl (D).

Lynch, who was first elected to the U.S. House in 2001, pointed to his background as a structural ironworker and advocate to show he understood the concerns of working families. He was the president of Ironworkers Local #7 before becoming a labor and employment attorney.[1]

Wu defined her campaign as a challenge to the status quo. She said her professional experience in software engineering and cybersecurity would have been unusual in Congress—where most members come from legal and business backgrounds—and enabled her to solve problems.[2] Wu said she was running against the Democratic machine in the state more than Lynch.[3]

Lynch's second challenger, Voehl, emphasized his experience serving in six deployments. Voehl's platform included increasing healthcare accessibility and ending American involvement in wars in the Middle East.[4]

This page focuses on the Democratic primary. For an overview of the general election, click here.



Candidates and election results

Incumbent Stephen Lynch defeated Brianna Wu and Christopher Voehl in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 8 on September 4, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Massachusetts District 8

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Stephen Lynch
Stephen Lynch
 
71.0
 
52,269
Image of Brianna Wu
Brianna Wu
 
22.9
 
16,878
Image of Christopher Voehl
Christopher Voehl
 
6.0
 
4,435

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 73,582
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Stephen Lynch Democratic Party $860,218 $511,997 $1,442,432 As of December 31, 2018
Christopher Voehl Democratic Party $86,269 $37,824 $48,445 As of December 31, 2018
Brianna Wu Democratic Party $164,137 $145,509 $18,628 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Campaign tactics and strategies

Relationship with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D)

  • Lynch: Lynch said in May 2018 that it was too early to discuss potential leadership changes in the House. "We’ve really got to focus on getting the House back, and then we can begin infighting after," he said. In April 2015, Lynch said that Pelosi should resign from her leadership position, asserting, "Nancy Pelosi will not lead us back to the majority."[5][6]
  • Wu: Wu declined to commit to supporting Pelosi as the Democratic leader of the House, according to The New York Times in March 2018. She said that Pelosi's "inability to express a vision for the party" could harm Democrats.[7]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Massachusetts. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Massachusetts with 60 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 32.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Republican 36.2 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Democratic all five times.[8]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Massachusetts. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 135 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 141 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. Clinton won 21 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 4.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 5.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District the 120th most Democratic nationally.[11]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.13. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.13 points toward that party.[12]

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Massachusetts heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Massachusetts General Court. They had a 117-34 majority in the state House and a 31-7 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Massachusetts was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Charlie Baker (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Massachusetts elections, 2018

Massachusetts held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Massachusetts
 MassachusettsU.S.
Total population:6,784,240316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):7,8003,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:79.6%73.6%
Black/African American:7.1%12.6%
Asian:6%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:10.6%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:40.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$68,563$53,889
Persons below poverty level:13.1%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Massachusetts.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Massachusetts' three largest cities were Boston (pop. est. 685,000), Worcester (pop. est. 186,000), and Springfield (pop. est. 155,000).[13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Massachusetts Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Massachusetts every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 60.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 32.8% 27.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.5% 23.2%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.8% Republican Party John McCain 36.0% 25.8%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 61.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 36.8% 25.1%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 59.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 32.5% 27.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Ed Markey 61.9% Republican Party Brian Herr 38.0% 23.9%
2013[14] Democratic Party Ed Markey 57.3% Republican Party Gabriel Gomez 44.6% 12.7%
2012 Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren 53.7% Republican Party Scott Brown 46.2% 7.5%
2010[14] Republican Party Scott Brown 51.9% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 47.1% 4.8%
2008 Democratic Party John Kerry 65.9% Republican Party Jeffrey Beatty 30.9% 35.0%
2006 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 69.3% Republican Party Kenneth Chase 30.5% 38.8%
2002 Democratic Party John Kerry Unopposed -- -- Unopposed
2000 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 72.7% Republican Party Jack E. Robinson III 12.9% 59.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Massachusetts.

Election results (Governor), Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Charlie Baker 48.4% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 46.5% 1.9%
2010 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 48.4% Republican Party Charlie Baker 42.0% 6.4%
2006 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 55.6% Republican Party Kerry Healey 35.3% 20.3%
2002 Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.8% Democratic Party Shannon P. O'Brien 44.9% 4.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Massachusetts 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2014 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2012 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
2010 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2008 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2006 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2004 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2002 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
2000 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Massachusetts Party Control: 1992-2024
Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Stephen F. Lynch, "Meet Stephen," accessed August 23, 2018
  2. ↑ Brianna Wu, "Home," accessed August 21, 2018
  3. ↑ Politico, "Progressives storm Democratic primaries," February 11, 2018
  4. ↑ Wicked Local Canton, "Lynch faces two challengers to retain Congressional seat," August 13, 2018
  5. ↑ Roll Call, "Pelosi Says She Plans to Stay in Leadership," May 2, 2018
  6. ↑ Politico, "Rep. Lynch: Pelosi 'will not lead us back to the majority,'" April 8, 2015
  7. ↑ The New York Times, "Nancy Pelosi Wants to Lead. House Democratic Candidates Aren’t So Sure," March 18, 2018
  8. ↑ 270towin.com, "Massachusetts," accessed June 29, 2017
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  11. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  12. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  13. ↑ Massachusetts Demographics, "Massachusetts Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 Special election


Massachusetts' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Edward Markey (D)
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Democratic Party (11)


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