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Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2010

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In the Massachusetts gubernatorial election of 2010, held on November 2, 2010, incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick defeated Republican Charles D. Baker and Independent Tim Cahill.

In the September 14 primary elections, Patrick had no opposition, Cahill did not need to win a primary as an Independent, and Baker won over token opposition.

November 2, 2010 general election results

Results are current as of December 2, 2010. the Secretary of the Commonwealth has certified the results.[1]

2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial general election
Party Candidate Vote Percentage
     Democratic Party Approveda Deval Patrick 47.94%
     Republican Party Charles D. Baker 41.59%
     Independent Tim Cahill 7.95%
     Green Party Jill Stein 1.42%
     Other All others 0.11%
     Other Blank votes 0.99%
Total Votes 2,319,963

Inauguration and transition

Inaugural date

The Inauguration was held on January 5, 2011.

Transition team

As a re-elected incumbent, Deval Patrick did not have a full scale transition.

Race ratings

See also: Gubernatorial elections 2010, Race tracking

2010 Race Rankings Massachusetts
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[2] Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly Politics[3] Toss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] Lean Democrat
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[5] Toss-up
The Rothenberg Political Report[6] Toss-up Tilting Democratic
Overall Call Toss-up

Changes

4. Rasmussen moves races from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-up" following October 29th polling.

3. Larry J. Sabato moves race from "Toss-up" to "Lean Democrat" on October 28th.

2. Rasmussen moves race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic" following September 30th polling.

1. Rasmussen changes race from "Leans Democratic" to "Toss-up" following first round of post-primary polling on September 15th.

Polling

General election polling

2010 Race for Massachusetts Governor – Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Baker (R) Patrick (D) Cahill (I) Other Don't Know
October 27, 2010[7] 44% 46% 6% 3% 1%
October 16, 2010[8] 42% 47% 6% 3% 2%
September 28, 2010[9] 42% 47% 6% 2% 3%
September 15, 2010[10] 42% 45% 5% 5% 2%
(Sample)[11] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Primary election polling

In the final round of polling before voters head to the primary ballot box, Deval Patrick, the incumbent Democrat, holds a slim lead. Republican Charlie Baker has an avenue to win, but third party contender Tim Cahill is going to be his biggest challenge. Boston's State House News Service polled likely voters and found 34% for Patrick, 28% for Baker, and 18% for Cahill. Additionally, Green Party hoepful Jill Stein takes 4%.[12]

Throughout the summer, polling numbers showed little motion. In late July, the two men bring in 38% and 32% of the vote, while Tim Cahill looks more like a potential spoilers for the GOP's hopes than a third party candidate, winning 17%.[13]

Patrick has lost a single point from last month, when he led Baker 41% to 34%, with Cahill them picking up a 16% share.[14] However, a month before that, as the campaign season got into high gear in May, the incumbent was ahead of Baker by dougle digits, with a with the Republican trailing 31% to 45%.[15]

2010 Race for Massachusetts Governor – Rasmussen Reports
Date Reported Baker (R) Patrick (D) Cahill (I) Other Don't Know
September 28, 2010[16] 42% 47% 6% 2% 3%
September 1, 2010[17] 34% 39% 18% 1% 8%
July 22, 2010[18] 32% 38% 17% 1% 12%
June 21, 2010[19] 34% 41% 16% - 9%
May 10, 2010[20] 31% 45% 14% - 10%
April 7, 2010[21] 27% 35% 23% - 15%
March 8, 2010[22] 32% 35% 19% - 14%
November 23, 2009[23] 28% 33% 25% - 14%
October 22, 2009[24] 24% 34% 23% - 19%
(Sample)[25] n=500 MoE=+/- 3.1% p=0.05

Candidates

The November Ballot – Who Made It? Massachusetts Governor[26]
Nominee Affiliation
Deval Patrick Democrat
Charles D. Baker Republican
Jill Stein Green-Rainbow
Tim Cahill Independent
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who were officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Candidates for Lieutenant Governor are elected on the same ticket as the gubernatorial candidate of their party but are nominated separately. The lack of primary races means many gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial candidates are already actively campaigning together.[27]

Massachusetts; Office of the Secretary of the Commonwealth maintains lists of all certified candidates.[28][29]

Democratic

  • Incumbent Deval L. Patrick
  • with Timothy P. Murray, the current Lt. Gov., for Lieutenant Governor. Murray is a partner in a law firm in his native Worcester, a town where he served three terms as mayor before winning election alongside Patrick.


  • Activist Grace Ross, who was the Green Rainbow Party's 2006 gubernatorial nominee, sought the Democratic nomination this year. She failed to gain the necessary signatures and her campaign ended on May 19, 2010. Massachusetts law requires a threshold of 10,000 valid signatures to move on to the primary ballot for candidates who chose to petition.

Green Rainbow

  • Physician and environmental health advocate Jill Stein is a twice-published author and had long been active in political initiatives and issue campaigns
  • with Rick Purcell, a Desert War veteran and long-time activist in healthcare issues, for Lieutenant Governor

Independent

  • Current Treasurer and General Receiver of Massachusetts Timothy P. Cahill has been a business owner and held numerous elected offices before. He switched his registration to Independent from Democratic, the party with whom he won his previous elections, in 2009, citing personal issues with the changing values and priorities of the party.
  • with Paul Loscocco, a one-time Republican member of the lower chamber of the state's legislature, for Lieutenant Governor.

Republican

  • Executive Charles D. Baker is a founder of the Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research as well as a former Secretary of Administration and Finance for Massachusetts
  • with state Senator Richard R. Tisei for Lieutenant Governor. A realtor by trade and the owner of his own real estate firm, Tisei is the Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate and the Dean of the GOP delegation at the State House.
  • U.S. Senator Scott Brown may have become a serious candidate had he not instead won the special election for the commonwealth's junior Senate seat in early 2010.
  • Christy Milhos had to end his campaign when he failed to meet the 15% threshold for delegate support at the state convention on April 17, 2010.

Socialist Worker's Party

  • Kevin Dwire, running as a write-in candidate

Campaign finance

The Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance (OCPF) makes PDFs of all reports and addenda for candidates available free and online at their "OCPF Home Page.

Candidates for 2010 are most easily searchable using the "Candidate Report Search Page"

Additionally, information on campaign finance disclosures is broken down into several useful metrics on "Follow the Money."

Reporting periods and due dates

Reporting periods and due dates for statewide candidates for the November 2010 elections are as follows:

  • 2009 Annual (January 1, 2009 – December 31, 2009) due January 20, 2010
    • Gubernatorial candidates file monthly "Bank Reports" during the election year. Each month's reports is due the fifth day of the next month. Beginning in July, gubernatorial candidates observe an accelerated schedule of filings, with reports due on the 5th and 20th days of the month.

Under this schedule, the 1st through the 15th of the month are reported on the 20th of the month, and the 16th through the end of the month are reported the 5th of the following month.

      • In the case of candidates with a campaign finance account in place before they announced a gubernatorial candidacy, reports are provided from the date of the official campaign announcement. For example, as Deval Patrick announced his intention to seek re-election on April 2, 2009, his reports are summarized below starting in April 2009.

Charles D. Baker

Mr. Baker's month-by-month "Bank Reports" are available online.

Charles D. Baker Campaign Finance Reports (CPF ID 14955)
Report Date Due Beginning Balance Cash Contributions Non-Monetary Contributions (Total Expenditures) Outstanding Debts Cash on Hand
September 2010 Bank Report: days 6-30[30] October 5, 2010 $ 1,559,969.78 $ 384,966.54 $ 0.00 $ (773,308.46) $ 0.00 $ 1,171,627.86
September 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[31] September 20, 2010 $ 2,161,800.43 $ 130,819.65 $ 0.00 $ (732,650.30) $ 0.00 $ 1,559,969.78
August 2010 Bank Report: days 6-31[32] September 5, 2010 $ 2,173,211.70 $ 196,135.62 $ 0.00 $ (207,546.89) $ 0.00 $ 2,161,800.43
August 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[33] August 20, 2010 $ 2,263,743.48 $ 61,982.90 $ 0.00 $ (152,514.68) $ 0.00 $ 2,173,211.70
July 2010 Bank Report: days 6-31[34] August 5, 2010 $ 2,221,420.53 $ 177,359.41 $ 0.00 $ (135,036.46) $ 0.00 $ 2,263,743.48
July 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[35] July 20, 2010 $ 2,258,603.58 $ 82,638.80 $ 0.00 $ (119,821.85) $ 0.00 $ 2,221,420.53
June 2010 Bank Report: days 6-30[36] July 5, 2010 $ 2,274,186.13 $ 249,990.38 $ 0.00 $ (265,572.93) $ 0.00 $ 2,258,603.58
June 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[37] June 20, 2010 $ 2,364,290.29 $ 116,783.99 $ 0.00 $ (206,888.15) $ 0.00 $ 2,274,186.13
May 2010 Bank Report[38] June 5, 2010 $ 2,271,068.27 $ 375,074.93 $ 0.00 $ (281,852.91) $ 0.00 $ 2,364,290.29
April 2010 Bank Report[39] May 5, 2010 $ 2,008,975.28 $ 638,136.60 $ 0.00 $ (376,043.61) $ 0.00 $ 2,271,068.27
March 2010 Bank Report[40] April 5, 2010 $ 1,809,856.72 $ 577,337.63 $ 0.00 $ (378,219.07) $ 0.00 $ 2,008,975.28
February 2010 Bank Report[41] March 5, 2010 $ 1,619,333.21 $ 456,678.77 $ 0.00 $ (266,155.26) $ 0.00 $ 1,809,856.72
January 2010 Bank Report[42] February 5, 2010 $ 1,628,548.93 $ 318,427.04 $ 0.00 $ (327,642.76) $ 0.00 $ 1,619,333.21
December 2009 Bank Report[43] January 5, 2010 $ 1,133,888.12 $ 707,371.44 $ 0.00 $ (212,710.63) $ 0.00 $ 1,628,548.93
November 2009 Bank Report[44] December 5, 2009 $ 843,915.98 $ 528,433.00 $ 0.00 $ (238,460.86) $ 0.00 $ 1,133,888.12
October 2009 Bank Report[45] November 5, 2009 $ 461,073.46 $ 496,029.92 $ 0.00 $ (113,187.40) $ 0.00 $ 843,915.98
September 2009 Bank Report[46] October 5, 2009 $ 123,620.00 $ 381,468.56 $ 0.00 $ (44,015.10) $ 0.00 $ 461,073.46
August 2009 Bank Report[47] September 5, 2009 $ 10,350.21 $ 127,565.00 $ 0.00 $ (14,295.21) $ 0.00 $ 123,620.00
July 2009 Bank Report[48] August 5, 2009 $ 0.00 $ 10,350.21 $ 0.00 $(0.00) $ 0.00 $10,350.21
Totals - $ - $ 6,017,550.39 $ - $ (4,845,922.53) $ - $ -

Timothy P. Cahill

Mr. Cahill's month-by-month "Bank Reports" are available online.

Timothy P. Cahill Campaign Finance Reports (CPF ID 13014)
Report Date Due Beginning Balance Cash Contributions (Total Expenditures) Cash on Hand
September 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[49] October 5, 2010 $ 1,624,226.70 $ 112,679.17 $(746,339.59) $ 990,566.28
September 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[50] September 20, 2010 $ 380,393.30 $ 581,395.43 $(581,395.43) $ 1,624,226.70
August 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[51] September 5, 2010 $ 348,578.95 $ 2,029,414.71 $(552,764.83) $ 380,393.30
August 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[52] August 20, 2010 $ 427,356.88 $ 8,561.97 $(87,339.90) $ 348,578.95
July 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[53] August 5, 2010 $ 452,462.81 $ 20,550.84 $(45,656.77) $ 427,356.88
July 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[54] July 20, 2010 $ 539,915.69 $ 5,742.50 $(93,195.38) $ 452,462.81
June 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[55] July 5, 2010 $ 968,312.08 $ 45,963.25 $(474,359.64) $ 539,915.69
June 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[56] June 20, 2010 $ 1,052,542.30 $ 17,743.75 $(101,973.97) $ 968,312.08
May 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[57] June 5, 2010 $ 987,693.95 $ 86,240.37 $(21,392.02) $ 1,052,542.30
May 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[58] May 20, 2010 $ 1,033,108.90 $ 17,566.48 $(62,981.43) $ 987,693.95
April 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[59] May 5, 2010 $ 992,767.37 $ 60,117.05 $(19,775.52) $ 1,033,108.90
April 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[60] April 20, 2010 $ 953,881.36 $ 103,406.25 $(64,520.24) $ 992,767.37
March 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[61] April 5, 2010 $ 941,990.15 $ 62,033.00 $(50,141.79) $ 953,881.36
March 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[62] March 20, 2010 $ 991,335.22 $ 24,888.76 $(74,233.83) $ 941,990.15
February 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[63] March 5, 2010 $ 975,580.82 $ 63,585.35 $(47,830.95) $ 991,335.22
February 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[64] February 20, 2010 $ 920,124.68 $ 79,084.25 $(23,628.11) $ 975,580.82
January 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[65] February 5, 2010 $ 828,578.13 $ 107,118.54 $(15,571.99) $ 920,124.68
January 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[66] January 20, 2010 $ 870,359.60 $ 0.00 $(41,781.47) $ 828,578.13
December 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[67] January 5, 2010 $ 816,201.25 $ 70,264.00 $(16,105.65) $ 870,359.60
December 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[68] December 20, 2009 $ 813,671.28 $ 36,011.75 $(33,481.78) $ 816,201.25
November 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[69] December 5, 2009 $ 786,622.70 $ 47,555.00 $(20,506.4) $ 813,671.28
November 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[70] November 20, 2009 $ 792,785.89 $ 23,040.00 $(29,203.19) $ 786,622.70
October 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[71] November 5, 2009 $ 715,049.50 $ 106,966.67 $(29,230.28) $ 792,785.89
October 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[72] October 20, 2009 $ 725,001.68 $ 19,625.00 $(29,577.18) $ 715,049.50
September 2009 Bank Report: days 6-30[73] October 5, 2009 $ 547,206.00 $ 203,350.00 $(25,554.32) $ 725,001.68
September 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[74] September 20, 2009 $ 553,047.75 $ 1,085.00 $(6,926.75) $ 547,206.00
Totals - $ - $ 3,933,989.09 $ (3,295,468.41) $ -

Deval L. Patrick

Mr. Patrick's month-by-month "Bank Reports" are available online.

Deval L. Patrick Campaign Finance Reports (CPF ID 14376)
Report Date Due Beginning Balance Cash Contributions (Total Expenditures) Cash on Hand
September 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[75] October 5, 2010 $ 1,016,564.90 $ 501,260.97 $(546,620.54) $ 971,205.33
September 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[76] September 20, 2010 $ 1,540,040.11 $ 168,852.56 $(692,327.77) $ 1,016,564.90
August 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[77] September 5, 2010 $ 1,303,566.08 $ 326,861.53 $(90,387.50) $ 1,540,040.11
August 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[78] August 20, 2010 $ 1,246,936.00 $ 197,236.45 $(140,606.37) $ 1,303,566.08
July 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[79] August 5, 2010 $ 1,135,368.43 $ 182,419.77 $(70,852.20) $ 1,246,936.00
July 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[80] July 20, 2010 $ 1,133,229.46 $ 104,372.33 $(102,233.36) $ 1,135,368.43
June 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[81] July 5, 2010 $ 1,106,005.42 $ 137,452.58 $(110,228.54) $ 1,133,229.46
June 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[82] June 20, 2010 $ 1,033,421.41 $ 187,295.87 $(114,711.86) $ 1,106,005.42
May 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[83] June 5, 2010 $ 1,000,514.51 $ 137,592.29 $(104,685.39) $ 1,033,421.41
May 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[84] May 20, 2010 $ 1,026,842.21 $ 86,996.00 $(113,323.70) $ 1,000,514.51
April 2010 Bank Report: days 16-30[85] May 5, 2010 $ 904,207.85 $ 192,678.10 $(70,043.74) $ 1,026,842.21
April 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[86] April 20, 2010 $ 892,046.99 $ 137,900.86 $(125,740.00) $ 904,207.85
March 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[87] April 5, 2010 $ 777,638.30 $ 197,836.60 $(83,427.91) $ 892,046.99
March 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[88] April 20, 2010 $ 754,284.54 $ 110,817.99 $(87,464.23) $ 777,638.30
February 2010 Bank Report: days 16-28[89] March 5, 2010 $ 695,380.00 $ 98,945.10 $(40,040.56) $ 754,284.54
February 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[90] February 20, 2010 $ 657,430.31 $ 86,608.60 $(48,658.91) $ 695,380.00
January 2010 Bank Report: days 16-31[91] February 5, 2010 $ 644,329.70 $ 55,407.10 $(42,306.49) $ 657,430.31
January 2010 Bank Report: days 1-15[92] January 20, 2010 $ 667,176.10 $ 23,408.74 $(46,255.14 ) $ 644,329.70
December 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[93] January 5, 2010 $ 651,387.22 $ 138,300.10 $(122,511.22) $ 667,176.10
December 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[94] December 20, 2009 $ 617,821.05 $ 102,737.30 $(69,171.13) $ 651,387.22
November 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[95] December 5, 2009 $ 662,355.05 $ 72,565.10 $(117,099.10) $ 617,821.05
November 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[96] November 20, 2009 $ 693,111.85 $ 65,491.00 $(96,247.80 ) $ 662,355.05
October 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[97] November 5, 2009 $ 523,305.38 $ 217,520.00 $(47,713.53) $ 693,111.85
October 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[98] October 20, 2009 $ 487,910.28 $ 53,646.00 $(18,250.90) $ 523,305.38
September 2009 Bank Report: days 6-30[99] October 5, 2009 $ 481,286.90 $ 39,938.45 $(33,315.07 ) $ 487,910.28
September 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[100] September 20, 2009 $ 464,416.40 $ 46,089.58 $(29,219.08 ) $ 481,286.90
August 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[101] September 5, 2009 $ 525,553.51 $ 13,655.00 $(74,792.11) $ 464,416.40
August 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[102] August 20, 2009 $ 585,414.54 $ 9,020.00 $(68,881.03) $ 525,553.51
July 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[103] August 5, 2009 $ 47,426.28 $ 62,645.00 $(24,656.74 ) $ 585,414.54
July 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[104] July 20, 2009 $ 503,812.70 $ 70,286.50 $(26,672.92 ) $ 47,426.28
June 2009 Bank Report: days 6-30[105] July 5, 2009 $ 483,640.12 $ 62,714.00 $(2,541.42) $ 503,812.70
June 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[106] June 20, 2009 $ 492,106.91 $ 46,933.00 $(55,399.79 ) $ 483,640.12
May 2009 Bank Report: days 6-31[107] June 5, 2009 $ 486,767.40 $ 42,807.00 $(37,467.49 ) $ 492,106.91
May 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[108] May 20, 2009 $ 488,003.72 $ 32,363.83 $(33,600.15 ) $ 486,767.40
April 2009 Bank Report: days 6-30[109] May 5, 2009 $ 450,115.29 $ 67,552.34 $(29,663.91 ) $ 488,003.72
April 2009 Bank Report: days 1-15[110] April 20, 2009 $ 429,154.09 $ 42,850.00 $(21,888.80) $ 450,115.29
Totals - $ - $ 4,121,057.64 $ (3,539,006.40) $ -

Campaign advertisements

Charlie Baker


Charlie Baker for Governor' 'What Happened' ad.

Charlie Baker for Governor' 'Turnaround' ad.

Tim Cahill


Tim Cahill for Governor' 'One of Us' ad.

Tim Cahill for Governor' 'Believe in Tim' ad.

Deval Patrick


Deval Patrick for Governor' 'Right Now' ad.

Deval Patrick for Governor' 'Forward' ad.

Republican Governors Association


RGA' 'Stalled' ad.

RGA' 'Frost' ad.

Debates

Baker, Patrick, and Cahill first clashed on September 7, 2010 in a one-hour debate hosted by WBZ-TV. The two major parties criticized each other over fiscal issues and blame for the state's dismal budgetary picture.[111]

In the September 7 debate, Baker criticized the sitting governor for the state's $2 billion deficit and for tax increases that had occurred during his time in office. In response, Patrick pointed to Baker's role as the state's chief budget official during the planning process for the Big Dig infrastructure project, arguing that Baker bore responsibility for the expense of the project.

In the second debate, on September 21st, Jill Stein the Green-Rainbow Party joined the other three candidates. The conversation took an ugly turn over ads the major party candidates ha been running against one another.[112]

All four candidates met again for an hour-long debate on October 20, 2010. WWLP-TV hosted the face-off in Chicopee, making this the only debate in the state's western region. Turnpike tolls and local economic issues were on the agenda. A far more sensitive issue also came up; the question of reinstating the death penalty in Massachusetts. Right-leaning Cahill and Republican Baker supported the idea while Stein and Democrat Patrick were against it. During the 1990s, a serial killer's spree in the Chicopee area claimed nine women's lives, something that is still a painful memory for the city.[113]

The Cahill Factor

Not too long ago Cahill was a registered Democrat and, as the Massachusetts State Treasurer, he was sounding alarms about the cost overruns of "Commonwealth Care," the state's socialized medical care system. According to an interview with Washington's Daily Caller online newspaper, White House officials criticized Cahill for his public reticence to support the program. In response, he switched his affiliation to become an Independent and launched a gubernatorial bid.[114]

While national leadership in the Democratic Party may have feared Cahill's impact on their own interests in the Bay State, Cahill is arguably more conservative than Republican Charlie Baker, and analysis of the race to date does seem to auger that Cahill is more apt to siphon support from Baker than from Patrick, a liberal Democrat.

The Republican Governor's Association certainly thinks so. To date, they've pumped $2 million into ad buys in the race, with the majority spent to oppose Cahill. In fact, the former treasurer got the dubious distinction of being targeted by the RGA on behalf of Baker in their very first ad.

Though other races certainly saw fierce primaries, the lack of any intra-party contests for the highest office in the state means the gubernatorial race had switched into general election mode early. Cahill's continued showing in polls at a time when Deval Patrick's momentum seems to have slowed is a likely sore point for the Baker's campaign, as his polling numbers were near 40% last fall when the race was two a two man battle. Yet, while Cahill still earns double-digits in polls, his numbers have stagnated and he is not polling highly enough to suggest he can win.

While Massachusetts is in play even with a three-way race, the Democrat might be all but defeated without the third candidate. All summer, polling had Patrick with a small but real lead over Republican Charlie Baker.

In this traditionally blue state, Baker's competitiveness testifies to how vulnerable Deval Patrick truly is. The latter's job performance ratings are hurting him; while he has sky-high name recognition, more than half of Massachusetts voters view him negatively. At 22% overall approval, Deval Patrick is the most unpopular governor in America right now. In the opinion of many race watchers, were it not for Cahill's presence in the race, the Democrats would be in grave danger of losing the governorship.

Baker's best chance to capitalize on the situation may be in the series of debates scheduled around the state for the fall election season. The first debate, including Patrick, Baker, Cahill, and Jill Stein of the Green party, aired September 7th on WBZ-TV.

The next debates, set for radio broadcast on WBZ Radio and WTKK-FM, respectively, were scheduled for September 14th - primary night - at 8 pm and September 16th at 9am.

Cahill loses his running mate, sues

Cahill's running mate, former state Representative Paul Loscocco, left the Independent ticket on October 1, 2010. Loscocco, a former Republican, then publicly endorsed the GOP's man in the race, Charlie Baker.

Rumors that Loscocco intended to get out had been in the air ahead of his departure.[115] The late departure means it is too late to remove his name from ballots and so Paul Loscocco will vote for Charlie Baker...and for himself.

While highly-placed Republicans may have anticipated the defection, Tim Cahill is apparently a bit more surprised. Last Sunday, he and Loscocco marched in the Holliston parade; later in the week, Loscocco was effusive in his praise for Cahill while giving an interview.

But Loscocco, once the Massachusetts State Treasurer, spent Thursday in quiet meetings with Baker and endorsed the candidate the following morning. The loss of a running mate is the latest in a series of blows for Tim Cahill. He had lost key three staffers shortly before Loscocco walked away. Nationally known strategist John Weaver and campaign manager Adam Meldrum departed within a day of one another. John Yob left so quietly he didn't even return calls from the press.

All three staffers worked on John McCain's 2008 Presidential run and Paul Loscocco, who chaired the McCain effort in Massachusetts, was instrumental in bringin them on board. The McCain team stayed together even after leaving Cahill's struggling effort. Yob was at the Thursday evening meeting with Baker where Loscocco pledged his support. The following morning, Yob was the one issuing the press release detailing Loscocco's endorsement.

For Loscocco, it is an interesting way of bringing things full circle. Early in 2010, he was aiding Baker's campaign and expressing interest in joining the ticket. Instead, he joined Cahill, a former Democrat, to create a bipartisan Independent ticket. He now says, "A vote for Tim Cahill is a vote for Deval Patrick. This isn’t about the past. It’s about the future.

For his part, Cahill is not taking the loss of his running mate and key staffers lightly. He maintains the media improperly knew about Loscocco's impending announcement before he did and alleges his three former staffers fed confidential campaign information to Charlie Baker and were secretly meeting with Baker to iron out details of gaining Loscocco's support while still on Cahill's payroll.

For Cahill, it is a coordinated plan, one that includes the Republican Governors Association, to destroy his campaign. He has now filed suit against all three of his one-time employees.[116] In the lawsuit, filed on Norfolk Suprior Court on Octobert 7th, Cahill's legal team also asks for a court order to stop Weaver, Meldrum, and Yob from passing on any campaign tactics or information to Charlie Baker's team.

Superior Court Judge Barbara A. Dortch-Okara granted a four day emergency restraining order against all three men and scheduled a full hearing for Wednesday, October 13th. The lawsuit states, in part, "The defendants ... knew (and know) essentially everything there was to know about the campaign's strategy and tactics for the final push to the election." Cahill added that Weaver and Yob personally promised him, as they left his campaign, they were not going to work for his opponent.

Baker's staff has added another twist to the saga by going beyond an official denial of the merit of Cahill's case and alleging that Cahill is bringing the suit not to expose malfesance by former staffers but to cover his own missteps. An official Baker campaign release reads, "So far as we can tell from media reports, Tim Cahill has filed a lawsuit to prevent public disclosure of emails that indicate his campaign may have been illegally coordinating with state employees at the Treasury."

Cahill maintains he first leaned he was short one running mate on Friday morning shortly after 9 am when Loscocco called him. Baker's campaign say they had no involvement with Loscocco's decision and no knowledge of his plans until Wednesday, September 29th, when an unidentified intermediary approached them on Loscocco's behalf.

Massachusetts' incumbent governor, Democrat Deval Patrick, is the most unpopular sitting governor in America and strategists have long thought that, without Cahill splitting votes, the Republicans would have a good chance of winning the seat. No doubt, Patrick's people will be watching Cahill's next moves closely. While his campaign is effectively hobbled, he has a hefty warchest left to spend; if and how he chooses to do so could deeply affect the eventual outcome. There are fresh rumors that he may splash out on ads dedicated to undermining Charlie Baker.

For the time being, both the Baker campaign and the Republican Governors Association are giving off the appearance of being unconcerned with both Cahill's potential to play spoiler and with the lawsuit. The cruelest dismissal of all came from Cahill's one time star strategist, John Weaver, who retorted, "This lawsuit is as valid as the Cahill campaign."[117]

Gubernatorial electoral history

1998 Gubernatorial Results[118]
Candidates Percentage
Argeo Paul Cellucci (R) 50.8%
Scott Harshbarger (D) 47.4%
Dean Cook (L) 1.7%
Total votes 1,901,187
2002 Gubernatorial Results[119]
Candidates Percentage
Mitt Romney (R) 49.18%
Shannon P. O’Brien (D) 44.41%
Carla A. Howell (L) 1.04%
Jill E. Stein (G) 3.45%
Barbara C. Johnson (I) 0.69%
Total votes 2,220,301
2006 Gubernatorial Results[120]
Candidates Percentage
Deval Patrick (D) 55.04%
Healy (R) 34.96%
Mihos (I) 6.89%
Ross (Green-Rainbow) 1.92%
Total votes 2,243,835

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 32.5%
Al Gore (D) 59.8%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 36.8%
John Kerry (D) 61.9%
2008 Presidential Results[121]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 36.0%
Barack Obama (D) 61.8%


1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 29.0%
Bill Clinton (D) 47.5%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 28.1%
Bill Clinton (D) 61.5%

See also

External links

Candidate pages

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, "2010 Return of Votes Complete Statistics," December 1, 2010
  2. ↑ The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  3. ↑ CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  4. ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “2010 Governor Ratings”
  5. ↑ Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  6. ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  7. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D), Baker (R) Nearly Tied”, October 29, 2010
  8. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) Remains Slightly Ahead”, October 18, 2010
  9. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) Still Slightly Ahead of Baker (R)”, September 30, 2010
  10. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) 45%, Baker (R) 42%, Cahill (I) 5%”, September 17, 2010
  11. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  12. ↑ State House News Service, "Poll Shows Patrick Leading, But Vulnerable," September 7, 2010 (dead link)
  13. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Election 2010: Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) 38%, Baker (R) 32%, Cahill (I) 17%," July 26, 2010
  14. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Massachusetts Governor: Patrick 41%, Baker 34%, Cahill 16%," June 24, 2010
  15. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Massachusetts Governor: Patrick 45%, Baker 31%, Cahill 14%," May 12, 2010
  16. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) Still Slightly Ahead of Baker (R)”, September 30, 2010
  17. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) 39% Baker (R) 34% Cahill (I) 18%”, September 1, 2010
  18. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick (D) 38%, Baker (R) 32%, Cahill (I) 17%”, July 26, 2010
  19. ↑ Ramussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick 41%, Baker 34%, Cahill 16%”, June 24, 2010
  20. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick 41%, Baker 34%, Cahill 16%”, May 12, 2010
  21. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick 35% Baker 27% Cahill 23%”, April 5, 2010
  22. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Massachusetts Governor: Patrick Holds Slim Lead In Three-Way Match-ups," March 10, 2010
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “2010 Massachusetts Governor: Challengers Gain on Incumbent Patrick," November 25, 2009
  24. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “49% in Massachusetts Say Patrick Should Not Seek Re-election, But Independent Candidate Gives Him A Boost," October 26, 2009 (dead link)
  25. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  26. ↑ Massachusetts Election Division, “2010 State Election Candidates”, official as of October 21, 2010
  27. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, Elections Division, "2010 State Primary Candidates," accessed July 23, 2010
  28. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, Elections Division, "Democratic Primary Candidates," accessed July 23, 2010
  29. ↑ Massachusetts Secretary of State, Elections Division, "Republican Primary Candidates," accessed July 23, 2010
  30. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 9/16/10 - 9/31/10”, filed October 5, 2010
  31. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 9/1/10 - 9/15/10”, filed September 20, 2010
  32. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 8/16/10 - 8/31/10”, filed September 7, 2010
  33. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 8/1/10 - 8/15/10”, filed August 20, 2010
  34. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 7/16/10 - 7/31/10”, filed August 5, 2010
  35. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 7/1/10 - 7/15/10”, filed July 20, 2010
  36. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 6/16/10 - 6/30/10”, filed July 6, 2010
  37. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 6/1/10 - 6/15/10”, filed June 18, 2010
  38. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Entire Month): 5/1/10 - 5/31/10”, filed June 4, 2010
  39. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Entire Month): 4/1/10 - 4/39/10”, filed May 5, 2010
  40. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Entire Month): 3/1/10 - 3/31/10”, filed April 5, 2010
  41. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Entire Month): 2/1/10 - 2/28/10”, filed March 4, 2010
  42. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Entire Month): 1/1/10 - 1/31/10”, filed February 5, 2010
  43. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Entire Month): 12/1/09 - 12/31/09”, filed January 5, 2010
  44. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Entire Month): 11/1/09 - 11/30/09”, filed December 3, 2009
  45. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Entire Month): 10/1/09 - 10/31/09”, filed November 4, 2009
  46. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Entire Month): 9/1/09 - 9/30/09”, filed October 5, 2009
  47. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Entire Month): 8/1/09 - 8/31/09”, filed August 3, 2009
  48. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Entire Month): 7/1/09 - 7/31/09”, filed August 3, 2009
  49. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 9/16/10 - 9/31/10”, filed October 5, 2010
  50. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 9/1/10 - 9/15/10”, filed September 17, 2010
  51. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 8/16/10 - 8/31/10”, filed September 3, 2010
  52. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 8/1/10 - 8/15/10”, filed August 17, 2010
  53. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 7/16/10 - 7/31/10”, filed August 3, 2010
  54. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 7/1/10 - 7/15/10”, filed July 19, 2010
  55. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 6/16/10 - 6/30/10”, filed July 1, 2010
  56. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 6/1/10 - 6/15/10”, filed June 17, 2010
  57. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 5/16/10 - 5/31/10”, filed June 3, 2010
  58. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 5/1/10 - 5/15/10”, filed May 19, 2010
  59. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 4/16/10 - 4/30/10”, filed May 5, 2010
  60. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 4/1/10 - 4/15/10”, filed April 19, 2010
  61. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 3/16/10 - 3/31/10”, filed April 5, 2010
  62. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 3/1/10 - 3/15/10”, filed March 16, 2010
  63. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-28): 2/16/10 - 2/28/10”, filed March 2, 2010
  64. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 2/1/10 - 2/15/10”, filed February 17, 2010
  65. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 1/16/10 - 1/31/10”, filed February 2, 2010
  66. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 1/1/10 - 1/15/10”, filed January 20, 2010
  67. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 11/16/09 - 12/31/09”, filed January 5, 2010
  68. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 12/1/09 - 12/15/09”, filed December 17, 2009
  69. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 11/16/09 - 11/31/09”, filed December 3, 2009
  70. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 11/1/09 - 11/15/09”, filed November 19, 2009
  71. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 10/16/09 - 10/31/09”, filed November 4, 2009
  72. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 10/1/09 - 10/15/09”, filed October 20, 2009
  73. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 9/16/09 - 9/30/09”, filed October 2, 2009
  74. ↑ Massachusetts Office of Campaign & Political Finance, “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 9/1/09 - 9/15/09”, filed September 18, 2009
  75. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 9/16/10 - 9/31/10”, filed October 6, 2010
  76. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 9/1/10 - 9/15/10”, filed September 20, 2010
  77. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 8/16/10 - 8/31/10”, filed September 8, 2010
  78. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 8/1/10 - 8/15/10”, filed August 19, 2010
  79. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 7/16/10 - 7/31/10”, filed August 11, 2010
  80. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 7/1/10 - 7/15/10”, filed July 22, 2010
  81. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 6/16/10 - 6/30/10”, filed July 7, 2010
  82. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 6/1/10 - 6/15/10”, filed June 21, 2010
  83. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 5/16/10 - 5/31/10”, filed June 4, 2010
  84. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 5/1/10 - 5/15/10”, filed May 21, 2010
  85. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 4/16/10 - 4/30/10”, filed May 6, 2010
  86. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 4/1/10 - 4/15/10”, filed April 21, 2010
  87. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 3/16/10 - 3/31/10”, filed April 6, 2010
  88. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 3/1/10 - 3/15/10”, filed March 19, 2010
  89. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-28): 2/16/10 - 2/28/10”, filed March 3, 2010
  90. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 2/1/10 - 2/15/10”, filed February 18, 2010
  91. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 1/16/10 - 1/31/10”, filed February 3, 2010
  92. ↑ , “2010 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 1/1/10 - 1/15/10”, filed January 20, 2010
  93. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 11/16/09 - 12/31/09”, filed January 5, 2010
  94. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 12/1/09 - 12/15/09”, filed December 18, 2009
  95. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 11/16/09 - 11/31/09”, filed December 4, 2009
  96. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 11/1/09 - 11/15/09”, filed November 18, 2009
  97. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 10/16/09 - 10/31/09”, filed November 5, 2009
  98. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 10/1/09 - 10/15/09”, filed October 20, 2009
  99. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 9/16/09 - 9/30/09”, filed October 6, 2009
  100. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 9/1/09 - 9/15/09”, filed September 18, 2009
  101. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 8/16/09 - 8/31/09”, filed September 8, 2009
  102. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 8/1/09 - 8/15/09”, filed August 19, 2009
  103. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 7/16/09 - 7/31/09”, filed August 5, 2009
  104. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 7/1/09 - 7/15/09”, filed July 17, 2009
  105. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 6/16/09 - 6/30/09”, filed July 6, 2009
  106. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 6/1/09 - 6/15/09”, filed June 19, 2009
  107. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-31): 5/16/09 - 5/31/09”, filed June 4, 2009
  108. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 5/1/09 - 5/15/09”, filed May 19, 2009
  109. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 16-30): 4/16/09 - 4/30/09”, filed May 6, 2009
  110. ↑ , “2009 Bank Report (Days 1-15): 4/1/09 - 4/15/09”, filed April 20, 2009
  111. ↑ New York Times, "Massachusetts Gubernatorial Rivals Battle in Debate," September 8, 2010
  112. ↑ CNN, "Sparks fly at Massachusetts gubernatorial debate," September 22, 2010
  113. ↑ Boston Globe, "Mass. gov. candidates split on death penalty," October 21, 2010
  114. ↑ The Daily Caller, "Independent Tim Cahill shakes up Massachusetts governor race," September 20, 2010
  115. ↑ Boston Globe, "Rumors of Loscocco’s exit were swirling before defection," October 3, 2010
  116. ↑ Boston Glove, "Cahill files lawsuit alleging dirty political tricks in Mass.," October 7, 2010
  117. ↑ Politico, "Tim Cahill sues ex-staffers," October 7, 2010
  118. ↑ CQ Politics, “Massachusetts Governor's Race"
  119. ↑ Massachusetts Elections Division, “Return of Votes for Massachusetts State Election: November 5, 2002”
  120. ↑ Massachusetts Elections Division, “Return of Votes for Massachusetts State Election: November 7, 2006”, certified December 6, 2006
  121. ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010
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