Media coverage of the Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017

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Virginia gubernatorial election

Filing deadline: March 30, 2017

Primary date: June 13, 2017

General election date: November 7, 2017

Winner: Ralph Northam (D)

Incumbent prior to election: Terry McAuliffe (D)

Sic semper tyrannis

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Virginia State Executive Elections Top Ballot Governor • Lt. Governor • Attorney General Down Ballot None

Virginia held an election for governor on November 7, 2017. The primary election was held on June 13, 2017. Click here to return to the main article on this election.

This page provides an overview of media coverage of the 2017 election from within Virginia and across the country. Selected articles are presented as a jumping-off point for deeper exploration of media coverage and as an overview of narratives that emerged surrounding the election. Articles exploring similar topics or conflicts are grouped into sections, with articles arranged within each section by date of publication. The following types of coverage are featured on this page:

• Potential Trump impact: Articles discussing President Trump's impact on the race.
• Campaign strategy: Articles discussing strategies employed by the campaigns.
• Virginia as a bellwether: Articles discussing whether the results of the gubernatorial election could provide insight into the national mood.
• Implications of the election: Articles discussing the impact of the election's outcome on Virginia.

Potential Trump impact

• Ben Kamisar, The Hill (November 6, 2017):

"President Trump tweeted his support for Virginia Republican gubernatorial hopeful Ed Gillespie on Monday afternoon, the day before voters head to the polls in the pivotal election.

'The state of Virginia economy, under Democrat rule, has been terrible. If you vote Ed Gillespie tomorrow, it will come roaring back!' Trump tweeted."

• Thomas B. Edsall, The New York Times (November 2, 2017):

"In the kind of role reversal that is not uncommon in politics, one of those with the most riding on Gillespie’s coattails is Trump himself. A Republican victory in Virginia would demonstrate that the president has not become a liability in off-year elections. In addition, given Gillespie’s post-primary strategic shift to Trumpian themes, a Republican win would serve to demonstrate that the issues of immigration, crime and race continue to win elections, even in a state where Democrats have been thought to have the upper hand."

• Jonathan Martin, The New York Times (October 15, 2017):

"But trailing in every public poll, Mr. Gillespie is now engaged in a robust debate with his advisers about whether he should ask the president to stump with him, according to multiple Republican officials familiar with the conversations.

Those in favor of bringing Mr. Trump in for a rally argue that Mr. Gillespie will be linked to Mr. Trump regardless and, in a state where turnout plummets in nonpresidential years, that the president can jolt his supporters who may have been indifferent about the race or uneasy with an establishment-aligned candidate such as Mr. Gillespie, a former George W. Bush adviser and Republican National Committee chairman.

But the camp urging Mr. Gillespie to keep his distance from Mr. Trump counters that it would be malpractice to embrace a polarizing president who failed to win even 30 percent of the vote in Fairfax County, the most populous jurisdiction in the state and once a suburban battleground."

• Lisa Hagen, The Hill (October 14, 2017):

"The enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans is significant enough that they need to get all Republicans out there to close this race,” said Tom Davis, a former GOP congressman who serves as a government affairs director at Deloitte. 'I don’t think [Gillespie] has a choice but to try to get Trump in to maximize the base.'

'Republicans in Georgia faced this dilemma,' he continued, referring to a contentious House special election from earlier this year. '[GOP nominee] Karen Handel had Trump come in and she won. But in [Virginia] that is pretty well-defined now, you’ve got to maximize your vote. It’s hard to do that being lukewarm on Trump.'"

• Conor Gaffey, Newsweek (October 12, 2017):

"Perhaps aware of the president’s capacity to divide voters, the Republican candidate has sought to keep the election as a state issue. Gillespie claimed that he had not sought a Twitter endorsement from the president and did not retweet Trump’s message of support. It’s not clear if Trump will visit Virginia ahead of the election, but Vice President Mike Pence will appear alongside Gillespie at a Saturday rally in Abingdon.

But whether or not Trump goes to Virginia, the president is casting a long shadow over the Virginia election. Almost 40 percent of voters said that Trump was a factor in their choice between Northam and Gillespie in a September poll by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. The so-called Trump effect is likely to sway Democratic voters more than Republicans, with Northam voters saying that their vote was intended to send a message to the president and Republicans in Congress."

• Gabriel Debenedetti, Politico (October 8, 2017):

"Gillespie would likely need to fire up Trump-supporting rural voters who have been skeptical of him, so he’s tried tacking toward the president with campaign hires and ads warning of dangerous immigrant gangs. He’s also tried yoking himself to Vice President Mike Pence, hoping the conservative talisman might energize Republicans who are turned off by Trump.

'With Trump, he’s so volatile that the environment Ed’s running in can turn on a dime,' warned former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2013. 'It would be un-Ed to tack aggressively in any particular direction. He will do his best, in my humble opinion, to not stiff-arm the president.'

But for Gillespie to win, the liberal suburban voters of Northern Virginia who detest Trump — as well as minority voters who have yet to be energized by Northam’s candidacy — likely would have to turn out in low numbers. That’s why Northam is expected to bring in former President Barack Obama before November’s vote."

• Alan Suderman, Associated Press (September 3, 2017):

"Gillespie is no stranger to the state's changing demographics and the obstacles Republicans must overcome to win statewide. His underdog bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Mark Warner in 2014 fell just short because of the Democratic wall in Northern Virginia.

Now Gillespie is trying to win over those same suburban voters while also appealing to the state's Trump supporters, many of whom live in economically depressed rural areas and are skeptical of the former Washington lobbyist and confidant to President George W. Bush.

The result is that Gillespie has largely tried to avoid talking about Trump while mimicking some of the president's positions. Gillespie's campaign messaging alternates between a center-right focus on lower taxes to Trump-like stances of cracking down on illegal immigration and expressing support for preserving Confederate monuments."

• J.S., The Economist (August 30, 2017):

"An accident of geography—that Virginia is hard by Washington, DC, albeit separated by the Potomac River—means that the federal government is a huge economic engine for the state. More than one in four dollars flowing through the state’s economy is linked to direct and indirect spending by the capital.

So when President Donald Trump suggested that he might favour a government shutdown next month to exact funding for his wall on the border with Mexico, Virginia politicians, particularly those running for governor this year, took notice.

Their concern—in the aftermath of the violence in Charlottesville that looms over the campaign—is electoral as well as economic. They know only too well the consequences of the federal government going dark.

There is little doubt that a federal shutdown would exacerbate voter hostility towards Mr Trump in a state that was comfortably carried last November by Hillary Clinton. And that would probably help the Democratic nominee for governor, Ralph Northam, who rarely misses an opportunity to link his Republican rival, Ed Gillespie, with the unpopular president."

Campaign strategy

• David M. Drucker, Washington Examiner (November 5, 2017):

"Saddled with structural disadvantages, Gillespie has surged into a virtual tie with Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam down the stretch with an advertising campaign that has stoked anxiety about Hispanic gangs and illegal immigrants.

Political operatives in both parties are taking notice, and say, win or lose on Tuesday, Gillespie’s apparent strategic success with independents and suburban voters, as Northam flails, could heavily influence the atmospherics of the midterm campaign."

• Samantha Michaels, Mother Jones (November 2, 2017):

"In Virginia’s closely watched gubernatorial election, Republican Ed Gillespie has spent weeks airing ads lashing out at illegal immigrants, sex offenders, and people with felonies, boasting that he’s got the law-and-order creds to keep wrongdoers in line.

But Virginians with criminal records might get the last word, because for the first time in a long time, a huge group of ex-felons will help pick the state’s next governor."

• Susan B. Glaser, The New Yorker (November 1, 2017):

"'Look at Virginia right now,' Greenberg said, as soon as we sat down in his second-floor office. 'We have a candidate'—Ralph Northam, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee—'running as Hillary Clinton. He is running on the same kind of issues, and has the same kind of view of the world. It’s the Republicans who talk about the economy, not the Democrats.'"

• John Daniel Davidson, The Federalist (October 27, 2017):

"By making immigration an issue, Gillespie is trying to force Northam into a no-win situation. If he tries to defend himself against Gillespie’s charges that he supports sanctuary cities, he’ll anger progressive voters, who do favor sanctuary cities. If he doesn’t, he’ll alienate older, more centrist voters he needs to win."

• Steve Phillips, The Nation (October 23, 2017):

"One simple statistic highlights the folly of much of the Democratic Party’s strategy and spending. If every person of color who voted for Hillary Clinton in Virginia last year turns out to vote in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest on November 7, Democrat Ralph Northam could win without getting a single vote from a white person. Not one. And yet most Democratic strategists and donors overlook and undervalue voters of color in general and African-American voters in particular. As a result, Democrats are at real risk of losing eminently winnable contests in Virginia this year, as well as in myriad races in 2018."

• Philip Wegmann, Washington Examiner (October 23, 2017):

"While the Bloomberg cash could rile up the Democratic base and bring Northam victory, it could just as easily backfire and deliver a win for Republican Ed Gillespie. Without new voters to win over, the race is about getting reliable voters to the polls.

Right now the race is all tied up, and Gillespie has the momentum. While polling from Monmouth University has the race deadlocked at 48 percent to 47 percent, the Republican is surging in more conservative, rural Virginia and gaining ground in Northam's home region of Eastern Virginia.

The Bloomberg money hinges on a simple calculation: Gun control will hopefully motivate the Left more than the Right. 'If the Democrats can get their base out,' Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, tells me, 'they can win.'"

• Lisa Hagen, The Hill (October 21, 2017):

"Democrats are looking to mobilize black voters for Virginia’s crucial gubernatorial race, hoping to boost turnout with a core constituency that has repeatedly helped turn the state blue in the past.

The governor’s race is one of the biggest electoral prizes on the ballot this year. With turnout expected to be significantly lower than last year’s presidential race, both parties are scrambling to make sure their base heads to the polls.

Democrats are working to engage black voters, who made up 20 percent of the electorate in the 2013 governor’s race and helped elect Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D). McAuliffe, who is term-limited out of office, won 90 percent of black voters in 2013, a similar total to Obama’s numbers in his 2012 reelection."

• Laura Vozzella, The Washington Post (October 18, 2017):

"In a purple state that gave Hillary Clinton her only Southern victory last year, Gillespie has looked for ways to excite rural Trump supporters without turning off moderates and inflaming Democrats in the state’s deep-blue population centers.

Prominent Republicans urged Gillespie to hire Trump strategists after he nearly lost the June primary to Corey Stewart, Trump’s onetime Virginia campaign chairman who dubbed him 'Establishment Ed.' In August, Gillespie hired Morgan, who had worked for Stewart during the primary, to lead his efforts in Southwest Virginia."

• Eric Bradner, CNN (October 6, 2017):

"But the actual electorate is much different than it was a year earlier.

In the 2012 presidential election, 71% of Virginia's registered voters cast ballots. The following year, just 43% voted in the governor's race. From 2008 to 2009, the drop was 74% to 40%. That pattern has repeated itself in election cycle after election cycle, data from the Virginia Department of Elections shows.

Who participates in lower-turnout elections? Typically it's each party's most loyal and committed supporters -- not indecisive moderates.

That's why both campaigns are so focused on turning out their bases in the race's final month."

Virginia as a bellwether

• Kevin Robillard, Politico (November 3, 2017):

"But despite substantial efforts in the far reaches of the commonwealth increasingly ignored by Democrats, Northam appears to be coming up short of a big improvement, according to his own internal polling.

Critics point to Northam’s stances on sanctuary cities and natural gas pipelines as possible reasons for the struggles. But the predominant issue may be that no Democrat, no matter their rural credentials, appeals to rural voters who have been turning away from the party for years — a big warning sign for Democrats hoping to compete in dozens of rural-rooted Senate, House and gubernatorial elections around the country next year."

• Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight (October 10, 2017):

"So why isn’t the Virginia election a good national barometer?

First, one election is never a reliable barometer of much of anything — the same way watching one NBA game doesn’t tell you much about how the whole season will play out. That’s why, for special elections, I’ve been arguing that we need to look at the results as a group to get a sense where the national political environment is.

Second, while most politics have become nationalized (people vote for one party up and down the ballot), governor’s races are still an exception. How else do you explain Republican governors in the very blue states of Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont? Or the fact that Democrats control the governorships of Louisiana and Montana?"

• Alexandra DeSanctis, National Review (September 21, 2017):

"Virginia politics aren’t such that Northam has to feign conservative beliefs in order to compete with Gillespie — as Democrat Jon Ossoff did, for example, when running against Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s sixth congressional district. But the race so far has illustrated that Virginia isn’t so much turning blue as trending blue. And if Northam caves to pressure from national Democrats to sing a progressive tune, the Commonwealth may be turning red again come November."

Implications of the election

• Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight (November 6, 2017):

"That said, being predictive isn’t the same thing as being impactful. And Virginia could certainly be the latter. Republicans seem intent on looking to Tuesday’s results for clues about how to run in 2018. Specifically, they want to see how Gillespie’s message plays. Gillespie, an establishment Republican by pretty much any reasonable standard, has tried to mix the traditional Republican message of lower taxes with the Trump message of being tough on crime and immigration. He’s combining economic conservatism with cultural conservatism. In doing so, he hopes to appeal to normally Republican voters as well as the white working-class voters who were brought into the Republican tent by Trump’s message.

If Gillespie wins, expect Republicans to copy his playbook in 2018. Gillespie pollster Gene Ulm believes Republicans will run on issues such as sanctuary cities if Gillespie wins. Even if he barely loses, Ulm still thinks Republicans will use Gillespie’s campaign as a guide. That’s because Virginia has different demographics than the rest of the country. Specifically, the state is more educated than the country as a whole. Therefore, Ulm argues that a small Gillespie loss on a cultural conservative message (that polls show may play poorly with well-educated voters) might become a win in many other states.

On the other hand, Republicans might be hesitant to embrace the more racially freighted parts of Trump’s message if Northam wins easily. They may view a large Northam victory as a sign that Trump’s triumph was a one-off or that you need him as the messenger. Either way, Republicans might connect Gillespie’s defeat with Trump’s low approval ratings and see Trump as electoral poison in 2018."

• Erich Reimer, Fox News (November 5, 2017):

"Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman and White House counselor for President George W. Bush, has run an incredible campaign in Virginia. He has combined the inclusive and aspirational Reagan-Bush approach – as represented by his slogan “For ALL Virginians” – with strong concern for the working-class voters who were so essential to President Trump’s victory nationwide.

While reaching out to ethnic communities and business leaders in Northern Virginia, Gillespie has also toured rural and Appalachian Southwest Virginia to talk about the opioid crisis and providing economic opportunity for those employed in industrial jobs.

If Gillespie loses, it would show that Virginia’s extremely lopsided political demographics remain difficult to overcome.

But if Gillespie wins, Republicans across the country may find that the strange coalition we’ve built in Virginia is a new and lasting one for our modern era. It is a coalition that that can help Republicans nationwide in reinvigorating the conservative movement and ending much of the “establishment versus grassroots” infighting that has characterized Republican politics in recent years."

• Myra Adams, Washington Examiner (October 18, 2017):

"Northam's victory would unleash the power and fury of Virginia's incumbent Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe and propel him onto the national scene with the brute force of a circus cannon.

Here is a prediction: A nanosecond after Northam wins, watch as McAuliffe, never shy about self-promotion, positions himself as the election's "real winner." Look for positive buzz about how Northam won McAuliffe's "second term" based on McAuliffe's success as a "jobs" governor. There is even some truth to that notion, considering McAuliffe's 55 to 36 percent job approval/disapproval rating. But McAuliffe, in his inimitable way, will take Northam's success and personally flaunt it to the max, wearing it like an expensive custom suit.

Most importantly, a Northam victory would embolden McAuliffe to start swinging his 2018 Trump club with both hands while focusing on his 2020 presidential run."

• Caitlin Huey-Burns, Real Clear Politics (October 16, 2017):

"Democrats may have focused millions of dollars and mountains of energy on special congressional elections this year -- to no avail -- but keeping their hold on the Virginia governor's mansion next month is arguably more significant to a party aiming to rebuild from the ground up after 2016.

The race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe appears to favor his party as the Nov. 7 contest nears, with Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie in the polls. McAuliffe's approval rating is above water and the state has a low unemployment rate of just 3.8 percent. But Democrats expect the race to tighten in battleground Virginia, and they can't afford to lose one of just 15 governorships they hold — especially in the only Southern state Hillary Clinton carried last year and where Donald Trump remains unpopular."

See also

Virginia government:

• Virginia state executive offices
• Virginia State Legislature
• Virginia courts

Elections:

• State executive official elections, 2017
• State executive official elections, 2016
• State executive official elections, 2015

Ballotpedia exclusives:

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• Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017
• Virginia gubernatorial primary election, 2017
• Virginia gubernatorial election campaign advertisements, 2017
• Campaign finance in the Virginia gubernatorial election, 2017

External links

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